Ahmet Ihsan Kaya @KayaAhmetIhsan
Principal Economist @NIESRorg. Specialised in global economy, international trade and finance. Past: @UKinTurkiye, @Hacettepe1967, @univgroningen, @HMBakanligi. niesr.ac.uk/people/ahmet-k… London, UK Joined March 2024-
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This is a really nice thread on (i) how focusing on gross flows may be confusing for cross border flows dynamics (which is one of the reasons why we use net flows in this paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.100…) and (ii) why we shouldn't be worried about (financial) deglobalisation.
This is a really nice thread on (i) how focusing on gross flows may be confusing for cross border flows dynamics (which is one of the reasons why we use net flows in this paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.100…) and (ii) why we shouldn't be worried about (financial) deglobalisation.
There's much discussion on the declining labour income shares and its implications for income inequality, but most are based on false interpretations and mismeasurement. This paper focuses on the second and shows how sensitive it is to different measurements. A must read!
There's much discussion on the declining labour income shares and its implications for income inequality, but most are based on false interpretations and mismeasurement. This paper focuses on the second and shows how sensitive it is to different measurements. A must read!
I really enjoyed listening to this interview earlier today. Our Deputy Director @EconSteveM first discusses the Bernanke review on forecasting and then summarises our upcoming UK Economic Outlook report.
I really enjoyed listening to this interview earlier today. Our Deputy Director @EconSteveM first discusses the Bernanke review on forecasting and then summarises our upcoming UK Economic Outlook report.
Really good analysis from my colleague @_maxmosley on how rising interest rates hurt largely indebted local authorities in the United Kingdom. Here's his thread on the background and evolution of the issue.
Really good analysis from my colleague @_maxmosley on how rising interest rates hurt largely indebted local authorities in the United Kingdom. Here's his thread on the background and evolution of the issue.
🚨 NEW PODCAST 🚨 We sat down with Deputy Director @EconSteveM 🎙️ to talk about the Bernanke review on @bankofengland forecasting and what's next for UK interest rates and #inflation 📈 🎧 niesr.ac.uk/podcasts Listen to and download it on: 🛜…
I have to say this goes against almost all the fundamental values that the US was built on. What's been happening in some Western countries is not markedly different from what we've seen in many 'partly free' countries in the last decade. How did the West become like this?
I have to say this goes against almost all the fundamental values that the US was built on. What's been happening in some Western countries is not markedly different from what we've seen in many 'partly free' countries in the last decade. How did the West become like this?
Doviz kurlari goreli olarak sabit tutulmasina ragmen ureticiler fiyatlari kurda olusabilecek muhtemel deger kayiplarini da icerecek sekilde fiyatlara yansitiyor. Fiyatlama davranislarinin bozulmasi tam da boyle bir sey.
Doviz kurlari goreli olarak sabit tutulmasina ragmen ureticiler fiyatlari kurda olusabilecek muhtemel deger kayiplarini da icerecek sekilde fiyatlara yansitiyor. Fiyatlama davranislarinin bozulmasi tam da boyle bir sey.
I hope this doesn't fall prey to the trap of "bad economics", similar to the claim that "QE wouldn't lead to inflation". In our upcoming Global Outlook, @MortimerleePaul and I discuss the US public debt issue and possible impact of a fiscal consolidation. finance.yahoo.com/news/global-de…
Great opportunity for anyone interested in macroeconomic analysis and modelling. Feel free to get in touch for any questions.
Great opportunity for anyone interested in macroeconomic analysis and modelling. Feel free to get in touch for any questions.
A short of some of our early analysis around the latest @ONS inflation figures ⬇️ 1/7 🧵 Also, watch this page as our full analysis will be published later this morning here 👉 niesr.ac.uk/publication-ty…
🚨 OUT NOW 🚨 Our latest #Wage Tracker suggests economy-wide total pay grew by 5.6% in Q1 of 2024 📈 We expect wage growth rate to continue slowing as the #labourmarket gradually cools in the second quarter 📊 Read more in our full analysis 🔓⬇️ hubs.la/Q02s_Sth0
⚡️Our latest reaction to today's labour market statistics is out 📈 Watch this page as our full analysis will be published later today 👉 hubs.la/Q02s-37m0 @EconSteveM @KayaAhmetIhsan
Superb thread! Reminded me of my own PhD cheat sheet on macro schools of thought, mostly from "Modern Macroeconomics" by Snowden & Vane. Mine looks more exhaustive but I'm sure I missed a lot of important stuff!
Superb thread! Reminded me of my own PhD cheat sheet on macro schools of thought, mostly from "Modern Macroeconomics" by Snowden & Vane. Mine looks more exhaustive but I'm sure I missed a lot of important stuff! https://t.co/n3K6GDJas0
⚡️Our latest reaction to today's #GDP figures is out 📈 Watch this page as our full analysis will be published later today 👉 niesr.ac.uk/publication-ty… @HaileyLow_ @EconSteveM
Tomorrow, @benbernanke will report back on his review of @bankofengland's forecasting ⚡️📈 Keep up with all our essential reading on the topic by following this thread 🏦👇 1/8 🧵 #econtwitter #economy #MPC niesr.ac.uk/topic/topic-hu…
This is reminiscent of #Erdonomics, but we may be reaching the limits of monetary policy's ability to curb inflation. A recent analysis by @sffed economists shows how much the impact of interest-sensitive sectors in reducing inflation has fallen recently. frbsf.org/research-and-i…
This is reminiscent of #Erdonomics, but we may be reaching the limits of monetary policy's ability to curb inflation. A recent analysis by @sffed economists shows how much the impact of interest-sensitive sectors in reducing inflation has fallen recently. frbsf.org/research-and-i…
🚨 JUST PUBLISHED 🚨 On Friday @benbernanke will report back on his review of @bankofengland's forecasting 📈 In this op-ed for @CentralBanking_, our Deputy Director @EconSteveM makes the case for three key changes to the BoE's forecasting process 🏦👇 hubs.la/Q02spmV20
Turkey’s voters moved decisively against President Erdoğan in the local elections. Does this give an opening to the opposition in 2028? chathamhouse.org/2024/04/indepe…
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berk idem @homoludio
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406K Followers 18K Following 25,26,27. Dönem Kars Milletvekili ve Kars Belediye Başkanı SES Partisi Genel Başkanı https://t.co/pl3CV8iDwF
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Burcu Aydın Özüdo�.. @aydin_brcu
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Faculty of Economics .. @UniGroningenFEB
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67K Followers 2K Following We serve the Federal Reserve's 12th District. A community-engaged bank, dedicated to building an economy that works for all. #TeamUnreserved RT ≠ endorsementsIn all honesty, the world doesn't need to worry about "deglobalization" if all that is happening is a consolidation of the tax structures of US multinationals in Ireland. Folks tend to forget just how much of the FDI side of global capital flows is nothing but tax avoidance 4/
I generally am a fan of the Economist. But they (perhaps echoing the IMF?) made a common error in attributing the fall in FDI after 2017 to "deglobalization"/ rising tensions with China economist.com/special-report… 1/
@ali_hakan_kara Hakan bey ABD’de bir Big Mac menü fiyatı ortalama 5.15$. Bizdeki fiyatını görselde paylaşıyorum (7.60$) Sorunuza bir nebze olsun cevap verebilmişimdir umarım 🙏🏻
V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index in South America: The most democratic country is Chile, and the most autocratic country is Venezuela.
Hamas'ın ateşkesi kabul etmesi bölgesel barış için önemli bir fırsat.İsrail bunu geri teper ve Rafah'a kara operasyonunda ısrar ederse iki devletli çözüm planı büyük oranda askıya alınır. Sonuçları çok daha ağır olacak bir sürecin düğmesine basılmış olur. Netanyahu akıl…
Geç kalmışlık hissi yaşayanları yine fazla görmeye başladım. Özellikle 30-45 yaş arasındaki kişilerde. Bu kişilerin atladığı çok kritik bir detay var; o yaşa kadar edindiği, insana ve hayata dair tüm deneyimlerini, bedensel ve zihinsel olgunlaşmasını tamamen yok sayıyorlar ve…
Bir ekonomide faizlerde durum bu iken tüketim malı ithalatı hala hızlı artıyorsa ya beklentiler düzelmemiştir ya da gelir dağılımı ciddi bozulmuştur.
... ya da ithal ürünler yerli mallara göre ucuzlamıştır.
@KayaAhmetIhsan x.com/ali_hakan_kara…
... ya da ithal ürünler yerli mallara göre ucuzlamıştır.
Değişkenler bir biri ile ilişkili ise biz buradan yola çıkarak model kurarız. Ancak bunun bir çok maliyeti vardır. Örneğin çok sayıda değişkenli modelde çok veri işleme yükü gibi. İşte PCA bu ilişkiler üzerinden değişkenlerin taşıdığı bilgileri değişken azaltarak optimize eder.
Principal Component Analysis Source: people.duke.edu/~hpgavin/Syste…
The US has a major issue of prime-age men giving up and permanently exiting the labor force. What's striking about this is that it doesn't get talked about at all - not in the mainstream media and not by economists - even though this obviously feeds political radicalization...
There are a variety of ways to calculate real pay in the United States, which can lead to conflicting conclusions about whether pay has kept up with inflation. @WendyEdelberg and Noadia Steinmetz-Silber help shed light on the country’s recent pay trends. brookings.edu/articles/has-p…
Koç Üniversitesi–TÜSİAD Ekonomik Araştırma Forumu (EAF) için @Cem_Cakmakli'nın Ekonomik ve Finansal Durum Endeksleri'nin ortak hareketlerinden yola çıkarak hesapladığı kısa vadede ekonominin durgunluğa girme olasılığı Nisan 2024'te %14'e yükseldi.
Swapta ₺ pozisyon alan yabancının ödemeler dengesine nihai etkisi sıfır. Yabancı $ satar,TL alır. Diğer yatırımlar varlık +100$ yükümlülük +3250₺ Swap👉Spotta ₺ verip, $ alır (Vadede TL alacağı, $ borcu) Diğer yatırım Varlık -100$ Yükümlük -3250₺ *vadedeki kısım yansımıyor.
@KayaAhmetIhsan Ahmet Bey, Reel kur düzeyi tartışmalı konu; hangisi gerçek ölçü? ölçümler sahayı tam yansıtıyor mu? gibi... O nedenle, yaklaşık bir fikrimiz oluyor. ÜFE ve İTO'lu TÜFE ortalaması gibi bir seviyeye bakıyorum. Başkaları da başka türlü bakabilir.
#BankHolidayReading 📚 In this paper, Senior Economist Ben Caswell explores two common measures of the labour #income share and applies them to the UK 📊 as well as providing novel estimates of the labour income share using a disaggregated approach 💡 hubs.la/Q02w0kYJ0
#WeekendListening ⚡️ In our latest podcast, we sat down with Deputy Director @EconSteveM 🎙️ to talk about the Bernanke review on @bankofengland forecasting and what's next for UK interest rates and #inflation 📈 Listen to the full episode 🎧👇 hubs.la/Q02w0l5w0
Enflasyon sadece hükumet tarafından yaratılır. - Milton Friedman Son yıllarda sadece Naci Ağbal döneminde para arzının artışı kontrol edilebilmiştir. Diğer dönemlerde para arzı aşırı artmaktadır. Bu da enflasyonun başlıca sebebi olmaktadır. Önce para arzının artışı durmalı. Naci…
🌐 Former IMF economist Douglas Laxton warns of a looming fiscal crisis within 5 years. Don't miss the discussion on #GlobalEconomicOutlook and #MonetaryPolicyInsights. Will the Fed's decisions steer us towards stability? #Crisis youtube.com/watch?v=yR6Nc9…
Türkiye'nin her türlü finansal konuda siyah listede olması lazım. Esnafın üç kuruş KDV'sine göz koyan devletin çuvalla para taşıyanlara müdahale etmemesi vergi kaçırma değil dümdüz kara parayı teşvik. Türkiye küresel bir kara para cenneti. Faturasını da orta sınıflar ödüyor.
Bir avukat, çuval dolusu paraları arabayı koyarken story çekmiş. Altına da şöyle bir not düşmüş ; “Neler olacabileceğini bilemezsin.” Gerçekten bilmiyoruz kardeşim. Bu kadar çuval dolusu parayı, bu enflasyonist ortamda kim neden elden verir? Neden nakit taşır? Avukatlık mesleği…
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