Margin & Map @MarginAndMap
U.S. elections through polling, fundraising, demographics & results. Sources first. No endorsements. Independent analysis. Joined November 2024-
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💰 IOWA SENATE — MONEY WATCH Senate Leadership Fund is adding $20M to its effort backing Ashley Hinson (R). SLF Iowa commitment: Previous: $33M Added: $20M New total: $53M About $90M had already been spent race-wide as of Sept. 29.
📊 WISCONSIN GOVERNOR — MARQUETTE Crowley (D) 49% Tiffany (R) 46% Crowley +3 692 LV | Sept. 16–23 | ±4.8% August Marquette: D+5 September: D+3 Little movement — and the race remains within the poll's margin of error.
📊 NORTH CAROLINA — NEW POLL Catawba/YouGov: Senate Cooper (D) 47% Whatley (R) 35% Cooper +12 U.S. House ballot D 47% — R 38% D+9 885 likely voters on Senate ballot | Sept. 4–15
📊 MICHIGAN — NEW MARIST POLL Senate: El-Sayed (D) 51% Rogers (R) 44% D+7 G overnor: Benson (D) 53% James (R) 41% D+12 House ballot: D+9 1,235 RV | Sept. 24–27 | ±3.8%
📊 MAINE SENATE — NEW POLL co/efficient: Collins (R) 48% Jackson (D) 46% Collins +2 1,240 LV | Sept. 28–30 | ±2.8% Recent polls: co/efficient R+2 InsiderAdvantage TIE NYT/Siena R+3 UNH D+4 Quantus R+1 Maine remains extremely tight.
📊 NORTH CAROLINA — NEW POLL Catawba/YouGov: Senate Cooper (D) 47% Whatley (R) 35% Cooper +12 U.S. House ballot D 47% — R 38% D+9 885 likely voters on Senate ballot | Sept. 4–15
📊 IOWA SENATE — NEW POLL Quantus Insights: Hinson (R) 47.1% Turek (D) 45.8% Laehn (L) 1.7% Hinson +1.3 714 voters | Sept. 28–29 | ±3.8% Independents: Turek +17 Another poll showing a very tight Iowa Senate race.
📊 TEXAS SENATE — NEW POLL Rasmussen: Talarico (D) 46% Paxton (R) 45% Brown (L) 4% Talarico +1 1,128 LV | Sept. 28–29 | ±3% Independents: Talarico 48–34 Another poll showing Texas essentially tied. Source: Rasmussen Reports
💰 2026 MONEY WATCH Midterm ad spending has crossed $1.5 BILLION. Just last week: +$317M Ohio Senate: $240M Texas Senate: #2 nationally Senate Leadership Fund: $145M The spending war is accelerating with five weeks left.
📊 OREGON GOVERNOR — NEW POLL OPB/DHM: Drazan (R) 47% Kotek (D) 46% Smith (G) 3% Drazan +1 915 LV | Sept. 17–27 | ±3.24% Recent polling: June: R+4 Early Sept: R+2 Now: R+1 Oregon remains essentially tied.
💰 TEXAS SENATE — MONEY WATCH National Democrats are entering the race. Senate Majority PAC has launched its first Texas ad campaign supporting the effort against Paxton. Talarico fundraising: ~$70M GOP outside spending: ~$150M
📊 MINNESOTA SENATE — NEW POLL InsiderAdvantage: Flanagan (DFL) 46% Tafoya (R) 45% Flanagan +1 1,200 LV | Sept. 28–29 | ±3.0% Recent MN polling: IA: D+1 co/efficient: D+1 SurveyUSA: TIE Quantus: D+4 A consistently close Senate race. Source: InsiderAdvantage
📊 SOUTH CAROLINA SENATE New Trafalgar poll: Graham (R) 43.4% Andrews (D) 42.3% Graham +1.1 1,087 LV | Sept. 23–25 | ±2.9% Previous Rasmussen: R+5 A normally red Senate seat is showing unexpectedly tight polling.
📊 OHIO SENATE — NEW POLL Big Data Poll: Brown (D) 46.3% Husted (R) 42.6% Brown +3.7 680 LV | Sept. 26–27 | ±4.0% Another new poll, Marist, had Brown +8. Both show Brown ahead — but disagree on the size of the lead. Source: Big Data Poll
📊 MICHIGAN — NEW MARIST POLL Senate El-Sayed (D) 51% Rogers (R) 44% D+7 Governor Benson (D) 53% James (R) 41% D+12 1,235 RV | Sept. 24–27 | ±3.8% MI generic ballot: D+9
📊 FLORIDA GOVERNOR — NEW POLL Change Research/Freedom Project USA: Jolly (D) 48% Donalds (R) 46% Jolly +2 1,063 LV | Sept. 25–27 Recent polls disagree sharply: Change Research: D+2 Stetson: R+12 A 14-point pollster spread. Sources: Change Research / Stetson
💰 NATIONAL MONEY WATCH DHS allocated $20M in federal funds for ads featuring President Trump. $2.5M+ was spent in one week. Important distinction: this is government spending—not candidate/PAC spending—so it doesn't appear in ordinary FEC campaign-spending totals. Source: AP
📊 OHIO GOVERNOR — POLLING BOARD Three new polls. Very different margins. Suffolk: Acton +9 Marist: Acton +6 Big Data Poll: Ramaswamy +1 BDP: Ramaswamy 47.9% | Acton 46.8% | Kissick 5.3% 680 LV | Sept. 26–27 Ohio remains a race where pollster differences matter.
📊 NORTH CAROLINA SENATE New AARP bipartisan poll: Cooper (D) 53% Whatley (R) 42% Cooper +11 1,115 LV | Sept. 17–20 Recent public polling continues to show a consistent Cooper advantage. Source: AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
📊 OHIO GOVERNOR — NEW POLL Suffolk/USA TODAY: Acton (D) 50.4% Ramaswamy (R) 41.4% Kissick (L) 2.8% Acton +9 500 LV | Sept. 23–27 | ±4.4% Marist, also released today: Acton +6. Source: Suffolk/USA TODAY
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