No More Parties @NMPCap

signal-to-noise Joined June 2012

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Branding positioning in luxury (h/t: $ZGN)

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BJ’s Wholesale Club $BJ bull thesis via @LuisVSanchez777 $COST clone for middle-class income demo. Should thrive in a tough economic environment. Trading at 17.5x P/E vs Costco at 32x P/E. Has 226 stores vs Costco's 847 stores. What's the bear thesis?

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Lemonsoft $LEMON.HE -- a leading Finnish ERP for SMBs is selling at 8x '25 EBIT based on mgmt's targets. CEO owns 26% of shares. Co is s exposed to industrial manufacturing customers (no signs of demand slowdown yet), but have started cutting costs. Underpenetrated TAM.

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Fidelity National Financial $FNF is trading at 6x FCF vs 10yr mean of 13x FCF and vs $FAF at 9x FCF. I get that this year is going to be tough. But if we ever see housing rebound $FNF will deliver a very strong CAGR. Large shareholders: Brave Warrior, Bill Foley, WindAcre.

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Arch Capital Group $ACGL is one of the best insurance cos out there, but more than 2x P/TBV vs 10yr mean of 1.5x is a bit too much. Enstar Group $ESGR at 1x P/TBV seems fine.

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Converge $CTS.TO is down 65%. Trading at 18% FCF yield vs $CDW at 4% FCF yield. 6% org growth in Q3 '22. Don't seem to have overearned in '20-'21. Paused M&A. Initiated a buyback. Started a strategic review, e.g. have downside protection. Mgmt are owner operators. Any bear case?

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Hotel brands by Quality & Value cc: $WTB.L, $HLT, $MAR, $IHG

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Burford $BUR earning will accelerate in '23. They underearned in '20-'22 b/c COVID slowed the judicial system and cases have stuck. Bonus points: - no correlation w/ the economy - two Argentine cases can earn more than the entire MC in '23 Current normalized P/E = 8x. Warranted?

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Interpump Group - niche industrial decentralized rollup from Italy. 22% share price CAGR last 10y. 13% EPS CAGR since '96 IPO. Trading at 17x P/E. ROIC 15%. CEO owns 24%. Recession = M&A tailwind. Mgmt expects org growth in '23 b/c of backlog. Co sells to 25+ application markets.

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No More Parties @NMPCap

3 years ago

Clarivate $CLVT is down 75%, trading at 11x P/E & 19x EV/FCF. 92% retention rate. 80% predictable subscription/reoccurring revs, growing organically at 4%. With 70-80% incremental margins should grow LT FCF @ 10%+. CEO from IHS Markit. Information Services comps trade @ 27x P/E.