ShowtimeBear @NotSpecialFlake

"Humans experience the world in a different way [from AI]. We experience it consciously. The way humans experience the sunset. The computer would not experience the sunset in the same way."

"I don't like investing in companies where it's simply a business. There [has to be] some transcendent purpose. There's something important that you're doing."

"We need to build the AI technology to control the AI technology"

@dnapway That's how I feel whenever PE takes over a company from the founders. There is no more innovation or risk appetite or audacious vision. Everything is about using "proven" management techniques, operational efficiency, trimming the financial statements, build-operate-transfer, etc

@MarioNawfal That's what happens when Private Equity takes over. Leverage up, buy a company, and start making interest payments thinking they can manage the financial statement into something better. In the meantime, higher regular interest expense means they must trim the fat

@Linahuaa If you're a big lab then it would not be desirable to be in SpaceX's position. But if you're a hyperscaler or neocloud, SpaceX's position would be pretty enviable I would think

@asha_shar Damn you would think Microsoft and Xbox would be opposed to people decompiling their IPs....but she's conceivably embracing it. That is pretty impressive I got to say

@MarioNawfal ah this poor woman

@elonmusk @Kalshi "unless there is a major war" sounds like a nod at the Ukraine/Russia war

It's not that crony capitalism doesn't exist. It does. But not everything is evil capitalism at play. Some are even well intentioned to benefit the public but gets interpreted as bad when it isn't.

People get outraged when public pension money is invested in big companies, as if the government is bankrolling corporations with their savings. Yet when public money is kept out, the public simply misses out on record gains leading to greater wealth inequality

the back of my eye had been feeling a lot of pressure. turns out I had turned my monitor brightness set to 100% for a few days and I guess my eyes got majorly fatigued from that

@BadHostile This captures the mood of Diablo 2 so well. Great job!

@HormuzLetter This would make any militaries nervous to rely on Starlink or even StarShield

@OoCPokemon Brock is the quagmire of Pokemon and it's SICKENING

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract. - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code. - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while. The funnel is driven by a combination of factors: 1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel. 2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel. 3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal. So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

Andrej Karpathy @karpathy

7 months ago

Judging by my tl there is a growing gap in understanding of AI capability. The first issue I think is around recency and tier of use. I think a lot of people tried the free tier of ChatGPT somewhere last year and allowed it to inform their views on AI a little too much. This is

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@MarioNawfal This was true until end of September. The US has since shown they were capable of shielding Saudi tankers through the SoH with barrels of oil returning to ~93% of pre war levels. You can tell who is winning by who is making concessions and recently that’s been the Iranians

@DiscussingFilm I think people are wary of Blade Runner 2099 for different reasons. Denis Villeneuve left such a strong impression that people will naturally compare it with that. Then there's gender war issues, comparison with original book, etc. I'm open minded to it and will give it a try

"as you articulate a problem the solution becomes emergent"

@elonmusk @teslayoda Oh god we can finally automate playing league of legends so that we don’t have to