Oilytics @OilyticsData
Helping traders beat the market #OOTT https://t.co/QxpegpTOcT… oilytics.co/daily-oil-mark… London, England Joined September 2018-
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Story of last week was the distillate rally. Rolling European distillate crack graphed below and it was a real humdinger of a rally, although to be fair the mkt had been quietly creeping higher since the end of August. Gasoil cracks have hit annual highs on the back of all the…
📊 Summary of Oil Industry Movements - Week 39 Chinese Diesel Exports Jump but Remain Depressed: ⚡ China's Diesel exports have risen to a 15-month high. However, the overall export volumes are still significantly lower than the levels seen in 2021-2022. The majority of the…
Winter RBOB Brent sticking out like a sore thumb. Oilytics pointed out the outlier nature of the data point a few weeks back and mkt did sharply correct at the beginning of last week but the crack has sprung back again. Yes European gasoline has seen some rather snazzy demand…
D4 RINS dropping below $1 per RIN, the first time since June and approaching the levels seen prior to the foreign feedstock announcements earlier in the year. The less broad D6 RINS has also dropped to $0.96 with the D4-D6 narrowing about 5c in the last 3 months. The pressure to…
Brent-Dubai bottoming? As we enter into Q4 with the direct crude burn normalising to Winter levels in the AG and expectations of OPEC plus crude unwinds in production, in particular Saudi and the UAE, Brent-Dubai rolling spread graphed below sitting near the lows for the last…
Rolling E-W gasoil below has become a crucial Winter indicator for Europe ahead of the sanctions against Russian. And we are trundling along at lows not reached since June. Clean freight has been volatile this year with peaks in Jan, Mar and Jun with geopolitical, explaining some…
📊 Summary of Oil Industry Movements - Week 38 WTI Speculative Length at Record Lows: ⚡ Net speculative length in WTI crude futures continues to underperform compared to both Brent and the refined products markets, hitting new record lows. This divergence is puzzling given that…
Jan RBOB Brent now annual high graphed below. WTI-Brent restoring some value last few days after the momentary panic last week. This has helped push the gasoline crack to the annual high. Strange though…US gasoline demand historically struggles in January with weakish demand/…
One to watch this year is the pro-nap, graphed below and currently trading middle of the range of last few years. The customary Winter rallies may not be so obvious. Why? If the persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure continue to become a regular…
MOPJ Brent crk has been a one way street last six weeks. But now the crack has reached the annual high, and last time we reached this level, there was a $4/bbl tumble in the month of May. Over the last seven years there has only been one period which has been higher and that was…
One of the worst performing spreads of 2025. FOBK BZ-Naphtha halving in value since Q1 2025. Reformer economics have taken a serious dent as a result. The recent naphtha crack strength in Asia has not helped with the Jul and Aug BZ Naphtha rally quashed as a result. Poor…
📊 Summary of Oil Industry Movements - Week 37 China's Crude Imports Remain Elevated: ⚡ According to preliminary customs data, China's crude oil imports for August were 11.7 MMBD, which is flat year-on-year and up 3% year-to-date. This high level of imports is expected to…
Nice little rally in US ethane the last fortnight with the front month graphed here. The 20c/g doldrums in the Summer have recovered to a more balanced price at pretty much the annual average so far, 0.25c/g. Interesting also to note that this has very little to do with US…
Aussie rules? Product sanctions on Indian product with Russian-origin crude begin next year but the one to watch is Australia. Total Aussie kero and diesel imports range about 25m tonnes per year with restricted domestic refinery capacity. However, so far there has been no…
📊 Summary of Oil Industry Movements - Week 36 Asian Refinery Runs Near Record Highs: ⚡ Refinery throughput in Asia's four largest economies remains near record levels, reaching 25.5 MMBD in July, just shy of the 2023 peak. This robust activity is primarily driven by China,…
OPEC whispers of increasing production this weekend causing crude and crude structure to tumble in yesterday’s trading session. Dec-Dec Brent retraces back to the 0.5 Fib level. So begs the question, despite all the increases to merchant oil flows in Q4 on paper, what exactly are…
Rolling Baltic LPG freight below. And interestingly we have fallen $10/mt from the LPG highs this year. Still a reasonable earnings number for the owners, especially factoring in the cheap global bunker market. A cooling off of LPG freight comes at an opportune time ahead of the…
Jun-Dec ‘26 WTI-Brent box showing signs of bottoming in the following graph below. With rumblings of peak shale production and deteriorated drilling economics in the US, this spread will be the one to watch next few months. Dragged down by WTI weakness in the front, this has the…
All is rosy? Dirty AG freight bouncing on the back of increased shipped AG volumes post the Summer crude burn season as evidenced in the below TD3 rolling graph. Mr Market currently thinking that global oil demand around the world also stacks up to justify the rally from the…
Sing 380 Fuel Oil-MOPJ naphtha differential price history below. Market rallied sharply since end September last year with OPEC restricted flows in particular causing the heavier end of the barrel to be tight relative to the light end of the barrel; apart from WAF the majority of…
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