Sid The Bear @OverboughtWatch
Trader/ Political Commentator / Financial Markets Fuckery Please follow and be part of the conversations Much Appreciated. Joined May 2020-
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Conservative Premier Designate Lorne Doerkson's victory in BC is a political earthquake.
Americans think Canadians are bunch of liberals but it looks like the tides are shifting in Canadian politics. Majority of Canada is now conservative.
The West is solid Blue! #BCElection2026 @BCConservCaucus
The grifter in chief. Ya HE’S making a fortune. His family is making billions while Americans suffer. $qqq $SPY #trump #Midterms2026
Congratulations to @LDoerkson and the @Conservative_BC on a strong majority mandate to bring common sense Conservative principles to British Columbia. I look forward to working together to save Canadians money and jobs, lock up criminals, reduce immigration, and put Canada first.
@theonlygirlhere @ProfGLongMIA Why are you wearing a mask? Covid doesn’t transmit through the internet
This guy is a fool. No one holds him accountable when he makes shit calls that lose investors money. Him and Kathy woods are brought on CNBC constantly to peddle the same bullshit $QQQ $SPY
Yes Phase III incoming IFYKYK
Trump is the biggest grifter the US has ever had. But it was him or Kamela. The greatest country on earth and the two people nominated were a narcissistic grifter and a woke liberal retard.
This Forbes investigation is a must-read. Donald Trump pulled in roughly $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, plus more than $200 million from real estate, and faced a projected tax bill north of $500 million. So his company donated the "development rights" to his Jupiter, Florida
I hate bitcoin because of this guy Without him bitcoin could be at $250,000 He’s an absolute clown. I’m sorry for the clowns to compared them to this guy. $BTC $QQQ $SPY $ETH
@terrified2024 Especially when they claim they cured fucking cancer.
Let’s tear down the fantasy vs. reality for $MRNA The Bull Math (The Trap): • 120k US melanoma cases × $100k/tx = $12B TAM • 20% net margin = $2.4B profit • 50/50 split with $MRK = $1.2B to Moderna • 400M shares = +$3.00 EPS• “Easy multi-bagger ,right?!” The Clinical & Commercial Reality: Grossly exaggerated TAM: Intismeran is ONLY for resected high-risk Stage IIB–IV melanoma. That’s ~22k US patients/year, NOT 120k. 80% of melanoma is early Stage 0/I cured with a scalpel in 15 minutes. Real-world peak penetration: At 40% adoption of the eligible pool, that’s ~9k patients = $900M gross revenue, not $12B. The net earnings haircut: At a generous 20% margin (bespoke mRNA sequencing & cold-chain logistics aren’t cheap): • Total program profit: $180M • $MRNA’s 50% cut: $90M • Actual EPS contribution: +$0.23 (on ~400M shares) You won't see meaningful commercial revenue until 2029 at the earliest. Even with late-stage data, regulatory filings, PDUFA reviews, reimbursement coding, and commercial ramp-up take years. You are waiting until nearly the end of the decade, absorbing clinical & regulatory execution risk, all to net under a quarter per share in melanoma.
@sal_tdot If it’s this mediocre in melanoma. The other cancers are going to be way harder to get any worthwhile results.
@LiquidityGhoul Not 400,000 for 12% marginal overall survival rate. No insurance company will pay for that.
$MRNA Straight from the horse’s mouth. Moderna is telling you this won’t work right now: 1. You need a massive, perfect tumor sample just to get it made 2. 6-8 Weeks of custom manufacturing delay while the clock is ticking 3. Doctors have zero biomarkers to even know if you're the 1 in 10 who might actually benefit 4. An insane price tag for marginal 12% additional survival gains over standard care Burning weeks of time and a mountain of cash for custom mRNA isn't a silver bullet is not only stupid but it's an operational nightmare. Off-the-shelf treatments exist right now with zero wait time. This stock here is extremely overpriced and I see it go down to the low $100s and even lower over time. The hype is dead The catalysts are gone. The treatment is a dud (cool science tho) The insiders cashed out Game over. $MRK $PFE $JNJ $NVO $LLY $ABT $REGN
$MRNA🚨 Moderna ESMO Slide 42 Breakdown and BIG RED FLAG Everyone is celebrating the RFS hazard ratio, but check footnote "a" on Slide 42: 📉 Overall Survival HR: 0.77 (95% CI 0.45–1.31), P = 0.33 • Crossing 1.0 means there's no statistical proof patients live a day longer. • A p-value of 0.33 means a 33% chance this is statistical noise. • In adjuvant melanoma, effective 2nd-line rescue drugs often erase survival separation between arms. Without OS proof, getting single-payer health systems in Europe and Canada to pay $150k–$200k+ for a personalized mRNA add-on will be an uphill battle. The market is pricing in certainty where there is still immense clinical and commercial friction. $MRNA $MRK $PFE $JNJ $AMGN
I know people still holding out for a TACO but from the news I’m getting from the Iranians, it doesn’t looks like either side wants a deal.
Trump: It's a possibility i will attack Iran
They’re the smartest guys in the room. I’m sure they know what they’re doing. Right? … right? $QQQ $SPY
I actually had someone like this sit in my office for an interview. I had to be nice and go through the pain of getting to know that mental ill retard. Why do these people even exist. How can anyone go through life this pessimistic and this broken?
Can anyone here explain why people like this exist? 🤣 Writer: Mhedi
@KllN349312 @Chris2pherLouis Umm Shrinking market Shrinking margins Possible insolvency Zero growth What’s there to invest in this company?
@sjrfda Are we looking at the same data ?
🤣🤣 So we don’t even know if the Intismeran was what produced the results. In the Interpath-001 trial, the control group got standard care, not an empty mRNA-LNP placebo. That means researchers still can't prove whether the benefit comes from the expensive, custom-made tumor neoantigens or just a generic immune kick from the mRNA-LNP delivery vehicle itself. Preclinical and real-world studies show non-cancer mRNA shots (like COVID vaccines) trigger similar anti-tumor boosts when combined with PD-1 inhibitors. The Keynote shows targeted T-cell reactivity against only a tiny fraction of the neoantigens, with no clear link to clinical efficacy. If any off-the-shelf mRNA or vaccine adjuvant can wake up the immune system the same way, the entire 100 thousand-dollar business model of bespoke sequencing, custom manufacturing, and long patient wait times falls apart. Extremely bearish if the multi-billion-dollar "personalized" thesis is just an unblinded delivery vehicle artifact. Hope they can sell enough Covid shots to justify these valuations $MRNA $MRK $JNJ $NVO $LLY
Here is the absolute bottom line for $MRNA 📊 2-Year RFS Rates: • Keytruda alone: 70.0% • Vaccine + Keytruda: 82.2% • Absolute Risk Reduction: Just 12.2% SO FOR AN EXTRA $100,000 YOU CAN GET A 12% LOWER RISK OF DEATH. THAT’S IT WHO THE FUCK IS GOING TO PAY FOR THAT? WHICH INSURANCE COMPANY IS GOING TO UNDERWRITE THAT? NOT TO MENTION YOU’RE TAKING AN EXPERIMENTAL mRNA VACCINE THAT IS 90 TIMES HIGHER DOSE THAN THE COVID VACCINE. $MRK $LLY $JNJ $LLY $QQQ $SPY
@KllN349312 lol I mean $NVAX is also dogshit
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