Pascal Severin @PascalTSeverin
Studying for a MSc in HFE at TUM. Doesn't really know how to use Twitter, retweets to bookmark content for later. Private opinions change according to context. Munich, Germany Joined October 2012-
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The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity. 🧵
5) BA.5 starting to make waves in highly immune South Africa, 88% wk/wk increase of total cases, and quickly displacing BA.2. Still think BA.5 may displace even BA.2.12.1 in US, but we will have to wait and see.
5) BA.5 starting to make waves in highly immune South Africa, 88% wk/wk increase of total cases, and quickly displacing BA.2. Still think BA.5 may displace even BA.2.12.1 in US, but we will have to wait and see.
New Subvariant B.2.12.1: 68% week/week advantage over BA.2 Significant growth of total numbers, doubling each week. 2.5x doubling speed compared to BA.2 New US projections model:
BA.2 in Germany, Apr 1: * The wave appears to have crested. Falling cases in most states. * Growth back to trends from mid Feb, suggesting behavioural changes in late Feb and early Mar.
We've been learning a lot about how Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 compare in recent weeks. Here's a summary table that I compiled and will update when more data become available
German BA.2 update 20.3.22: Helau and Alaaf. * Growth has slowed nationally, but with regional differences. * Carnival (?) effect in a range of states, especially strongholds NRW and RP in late Feb. Behavioural changes will determine trajectories in the coming weeks.
The stars are aligning...so to speak. ⭐ Our @NASAWebb team has fully aligned the telescope's primary imager with its mirrors, keeping its optics on track to meet or exceed science goals. Tune in at noon ET (16:00 UTC) for an update: go.nasa.gov/3IhPOvK #UnfoldTheUniverse
The new Europe wave is gaining steam
BA.2 projections in the US: Coming off of the massive omicron wave (Rt=0.64) will provide a lot of immunity to restrict BA.2 spread rate. A good chance we may see a BA.2 wave in April-May. A lot of factors to consider:
In the last days of February, Germany announced a radical shift in its defense policy. In @WarOnTheRocks, @sarahbrockmeier and I have written up what happened and, importantly, what we think Berlin should do next. 🧵 warontherocks.com/2022/03/waking…
‘No Wavering’: After Turning to Putin, Xi Faces Hard Wartime Choices for China nytimes.com/2022/03/07/wor…
Good review of findings/explainer @NYTScience nytimes.com/2022/03/07/hea… by @PamBelluck One thing missed is the influence of the viral strain. Since Omicron induced far less loss of smell, any hit to brain was likely markedly reduced or null. Tropism to organs may vary by variant
Just published @Nature The impact of #Covid on the brain: the 1st longitudinal imaging study before and after infection, with controls nature.com/articles/s4158… Reduction of grey matter, brain size, cognitive decline
Für neue Zuhörer und Follower: herzlich willkommen. Wir sind Sicherheitshalber, der Podcast zur Sicherheitspolitik in Deutschland und der Welt. Es gibt uns seit mehr als drei Jahren, alle drei Wochen diskutieren wir über aktuelle Themen der Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik.
Nach den Bund-Länder-Gesprächen wirbt @bundeskanzler Scholz eindringlich für eine #Impfpflicht:
German Omicron update 2022-02-17: Things are moving in the right direction. * Total cases and BA.1/1.1 going down in the west (r ≤ 0), steady (r ≈ 0) in s'th/east. * BA.2 cases falling in the bellwether states Berlin and Hamburg (r < 0), moderate/slowing rise (r≥0) elsewhere.
4th dose of mRNA vaccine: good neutralizing antibody response, minimal added T cell response, but lack of efficacy vs Omicron infections in Israeli assessment of over 1,000 health care workers with controls medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
@EricTopol @SystemsVirology "Our data suggest the possibility that BA.2 would be the most concerned variant to global health." "Based on our findings, we propose that BA.2 should be recognised as a unique variant of concern"
Not so fast. The BA.2 variant has been considered as not meaningfully different from BA.1 with respect to pathogenicity or immune evasion. A new report from @SystemsVirology, in the lab and experimental model, suggests that may not be the case biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
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