PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

🇨🇳 China is already showing how the AI BUBBLE can burst. 🇺🇸 Is the US next? Look at two Chinese indices. 🇨🇳 000300 (China’s $SPY equivalent): −21.8% from the local high. 🇨🇳 000688 (China’s $QQQ equivalent): −44.6%. The second index, focused on China’s tech and innovation sector, has already lost almost half its value — after a powerful rally that not long ago looked like the start of a new growth cycle. Now the main question: What if the Chinese market is showing us the future of the American stock market? Look at the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. For years, US tech giants have driven expectations around artificial intelligence — and with them, valuations and capital concentration in a handful of the largest names. But every bubble has one trait: while it’s inflating, it feels like this time is different. Until the market starts proving otherwise. The Chinese charts are not proof that the US must follow the same path. But they show how painful the reversal can be when expectations collide with reality. And the most uncomfortable part: if a similar process begins in the US, it may not stay limited to the tech sector — it could affect the entire stock market. Maybe we’re not looking at the distant future. Maybe the first signals are already in front of us. The only question is whether the market will reprice the risk before prices do. 
#Crypto #Bitcoin bitcoin:native $ETH

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The inevitable can be delayed, but it cannot be avoided. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

2 days ago

How deep can the stock market fall? The main question is whether the decline in SPX 500, NASDAQ, DJI and NVDA will stay a normal correction — or turn into a more serious move lower that drags BTC with it. SPX500 Trading around $7,640 after another failed attempt to continue

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How deep can the stock market fall? The main question is whether the decline in SPX 500, NASDAQ, DJI and NVDA will stay a normal correction — or turn into a more serious move lower that drags BTC with it. SPX500 Trading around $7,640 after another failed attempt to continue higher. Nearest support is $7,519. A break below it raises the probability of a move into the $6,900–$7,100 area. The next meaningful support sits around $6,320. DJI Nearest support zone is $49,000–$50,000. If sellers keep pressing and this area fails to hold, the next significant target could be around $45,050. NASDAQ Nearest level is $28,750. A sustained break below it opens the door to the $25,800–$26,800 zone. NVDA Showing weakness after attempts to push the highs in the $235–$240 area. Price is currently around $211, sitting at the lower boundary of an ending diagonal that is likely to break, opening a path toward $165. NVIDIA carries roughly 8% weight in both the SPX500 and NASDAQ — an enormous share for a single company. Its further decline can put meaningful pressure on both indices, especially given the heavy attention the market pays to it. If NVDA keeps falling, it becomes harder to expect resilience from the broader market — particularly if other major tech names start to join the move. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

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PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

2 weeks ago

Post from 28.09.2026 SPX 500 closed Friday at $7,753.8. Less than 1% away from the August 13 record of $7,821.6. At first glance, the market is almost at the highs. But if you look under the hood, a question appears: how many stocks are actually participating in this rally?

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About the BULL TRAP. My original bear market scenario looked like this: I viewed the drop in BTC from $126,000 to $60,000 as the first wave of the decline, after which I expected a correction into the $79,000–$84,000 range, followed by a second wave down from around $82,000 — similar in scale to the first — that would take BTC into the $34,000–$44,000 zone. But after price held below the October low, instead of the expected continuation toward $40,000, we got a reversal higher and a return above $82,850 — the level that, from a market structure standpoint, marks the line for a global trend change on BTC. As I’ve written before, what still bothers me is that the metrics haven’t reset. That’s why I continue to view this rally primarily as a correction of the prior decline, with the risk of a bull trap. On the chart I’ve marked the potential bull trap that could define the next major move in BTC. The key zone — the real line in the sand between bulls and bears — is $69,000–$73,000. This is where BTC will show its next directional bias. If buyers defend this block and price gets an impulsive bounce off it, the probability of further upside increases significantly, and the first meaningful target would be the $100,000 area. If price impulsively breaks this block and holds below it, the scenario shown on the chart activates: the entire move from February to October becomes a complex correction between two down waves, and the odds of a break below $60,000 rise sharply. Of course, such a decline should ideally be accompanied by an active sell-off in the stock market. In my view, a correction in equities has already started — but it’s not yet the aggressive decline that would be needed. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

BTC is squeezed between two local blocks. For the downside scenario toward $69,000–$73,000 to play out, BTC needs an impulsive move below $79,500 and a hold under that level. My interest zone for ETH is $2,000–$2,200. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

4 weeks ago

Post from 23.09.2026 On the night of September 21–22, a Russian missile hit my house. I survived only because I reacted in time. If I had been a few minutes late, I wouldn’t be writing this — and the channel would have become a ghost. Because of these events, I’m pausing the

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I’ll let the market show its hand. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

Behind BTC’s rally is a very specific type of demand — ETF flows and already-covered shorts from $60,000. This is not a new wave of cheap money. Since July, net liquidity that drives inflows into high-risk assets has been declining, while price has been rising. When the stock market breaks, that same channel will amplify the downside: funds will see outflows, and the only thing left under the price will be a liquidity squeeze. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

2 weeks ago

Interesting picture taking shape. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

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Interesting picture taking shape. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

3 months ago

Forget the Four-Year Cycle for a Moment Sometimes it’s genuinely hard to stick to your view when there’s so much noise around. Today I’m deliberately stepping away from the four-year cycle debate and looking at a liquidity metric instead. This metric was originally created to

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Post from 28.09.2026 SPX 500 closed Friday at $7,753.8. Less than 1% away from the August 13 record of $7,821.6. At first glance, the market is almost at the highs. But if you look under the hood, a question appears: how many stocks are actually participating in this rally? Only a quarter of SPX 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day MA. On the day of the all-time high, that number was much higher. So the index has almost returned to its peak, while internal market breadth has deteriorated significantly. Only half of the stocks are above the 200-day MA, and a large share — about 59% — is already in a deep drawdown of 20%+ from their highs. Meanwhile, the SPX 500 still looks very strong. Why? Concentration. A handful of the largest companies carry enormous weight in the index. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft and a few other giants can keep pulling the SPX 500 higher even while most of the remaining stocks are already weakening. That’s why today there is an important illusion: the SPX 500 looks stronger than the market as a whole. At the same time we also see: — High cost of money — Rising long-term bond yields — Expensive oil — Inflationary pressure — Massive capex from AI companies — A market that is increasingly dependent on a few mega-cap names In September, the US10Y yield rose to 5.225%, and the US30Y reached levels not seen in more than a decade. Meanwhile the SPX 500 is sitting almost at all-time highs. These kinds of divergences are the ones I consider dangerous. The chain of events looks roughly like this: cheap money → asset inflation → high concentration → inflationary pressure → rising oil → rising long-term yields → deteriorating market breadth → pressure on expensive stocks → market break → sell-off. Right now I’m not looking at the market and asking “Why is it still going up?” I’m asking: “What happens when the small group of companies currently holding up the entire index starts to fall?” #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

a month ago

Oil UP Inflation UP Bonds UP DXY UP S&P UP BTC UP Is this a risk-on regime? If not — who’s lying? #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

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@JTheretohelp1 Anytime.

Behind BTC’s rally is a very specific type of demand — ETF flows and already-covered shorts from $60,000. This is not a new wave of cheap money. Since July, net liquidity that drives inflows into high-risk assets has been declining, while price has been rising. When the stock market breaks, that same channel will amplify the downside: funds will see outflows, and the only thing left under the price will be a liquidity squeeze. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

4 weeks ago

Interesting picture taking shape. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

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Interesting picture taking shape. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

3 months ago

Forget the Four-Year Cycle for a Moment Sometimes it’s genuinely hard to stick to your view when there’s so much noise around. Today I’m deliberately stepping away from the four-year cycle debate and looking at a liquidity metric instead. This metric was originally created to

0 0 1 271 0

BTC closed the weekly candle above $82,850. From a technical standpoint, the bear market has flipped into a bull market. #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

4 weeks ago

Post from 23.09.2026 On the night of September 21–22, a Russian missile hit my house. I survived only because I reacted in time. If I had been a few minutes late, I wouldn’t be writing this — and the channel would have become a ghost. Because of these events, I’m pausing the

0 0 1 372 0

SPX 500 closed Friday at $7,753.8. Less than 1% away from the August 13 record of $7,821.6. At first glance, the market is almost at the highs. But if you look under the hood, a question appears: how many stocks are actually participating in this rally? Only a quarter of SPX 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day MA. On the day of the all-time high, that number was much higher. So the index has almost returned to its peak, while internal market breadth has deteriorated significantly. Only half of the stocks are above the 200-day MA, and a large share — about 59% — is already in a deep drawdown of 20%+ from their highs. Meanwhile, the SPX 500 still looks very strong. Why? Concentration. A handful of the largest companies carry enormous weight in the index. NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft and a few other giants can keep pulling the SPX 500 higher even while most of the remaining stocks are already weakening. That’s why today there is an important illusion: the SPX 500 looks stronger than the market as a whole. At the same time we also see: — High cost of money — Rising long-term bond yields — Expensive oil — Inflationary pressure — Massive capex from AI companies — A market that is increasingly dependent on a few mega-cap names In September, the US10Y yield rose to 5.225%, and the US30Y reached levels not seen in more than a decade. Meanwhile the SPX 500 is sitting almost at all-time highs. These kinds of divergences are the ones I consider dangerous. The chain of events looks roughly like this: cheap money → asset inflation → high concentration → inflationary pressure → rising oil → rising long-term yields → deteriorating market breadth → pressure on expensive stocks → market break → sell-off. Right now I’m not looking at the market and asking “Why is it still going up?” I’m asking: “What happens when the small group of companies currently holding up the entire index starts to fall?” #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

PlanTwentyOne @PlanTwentyOne

a month ago

Oil UP Inflation UP Bonds UP DXY UP S&P UP BTC UP Is this a risk-on regime? If not — who’s lying? #Crypto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

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