Ray Micaletti @RelSentTech
CIO, Relative Sentiment Technologies | Examining the forces that move markets | Free weekly updates: https://t.co/9AzflLA3VQ | Not investment advice relativesentiment.com Palmas Del Mar, Puerto Rico Joined September 2009-
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Composite precious metals relative sentiment (a combo of gold, silver, dollar, euro, yen, and pound relative sentiment) has been bullish for precious metals for the entirety of 2025 except for a small window around Liberation Day. That said, in recent weeks, the strength of the…
Composite precious metals relative sentiment (a combo of gold, silver, dollar, euro, yen, and pound relative sentiment) has been bullish for precious metals for the entirety of 2025 except for a small window around Liberation Day. That said, in recent weeks, the strength of the… https://t.co/jofAGovIYo
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Looks like silver got the memo.
$IWM finished at its low, triggering a short-term mean-reversion signal. Last one, two weeks ago, went +3%.
$IWM finished at its low, triggering a short-term mean-reversion signal. Last one, two weeks ago, went +3%.
Interesting thought, that maybe the Commitments of Traders report is being gamed. Gold relative sentiment, the smoothed composite z-score of commercial positioning compared to non-reportable positioning has made a +2.8 point move in the last two weeks, from a value of -1.5 to…
Interesting thought, that maybe the Commitments of Traders report is being gamed. Gold relative sentiment, the smoothed composite z-score of commercial positioning compared to non-reportable positioning has made a +2.8 point move in the last two weeks, from a value of -1.5 to…
$IWM triggered a short-term mean-reversion signal today, with relative sentiment still bullish.
$IWM triggered a short-term mean-reversion signal today, with relative sentiment still bullish.
So far, the $NQ / $RTY ratio has been rejected at the breakdown line.
So far, the $NQ / $RTY ratio has been rejected at the breakdown line. https://t.co/K3x0Aro58N
The $NQ / $RTY ratio backtesting the breakdown level from a few weeks ago. Complicating matters is that institutions went from relatively bearish the NQ vs. retail to relatively bullish last week, while at the same time greatly reducing their relative bullishness in the Russell…
The large upward reaction in precious metals and miners after the NFP wasn't really validated by the small fall in the dollar. 🤔
U.S. T-bond futures ($ZB) testing the downtrend line from the highs and trying to hold above 116 simultaneously. Positioning has been bullish for long-duration bonds since November, but they have gone only sideways.
Composite precious metals relative sentiment is bullish, but running out of time. That bullish state looks like it will expire by the second or third week of June given gold and silver's spot (i.e., unsmoothed) relative positioning, which is deeply bearish.
10-year forward expected annualized nominal U.S. equity returns sit at -0.93% (on par with dotcom era expectations), against a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.23%. -516 basis points of expected risk premium.
Composite equity relative sentiment (CERS) dropped sharply last week from 77% to 59%, a neutral-bullish level. Market has generally flatlined when CERS was between 40%-60%, historically--annualizing 5% with a Sharpe ratio of 0.3. CERS looks like it may stay in high-50s/low-60s…
The NQ/RTY ratio finally breaking below the July '24 high after several attempts in recent months. It even bounced there this morning pre-Jackson Hole. The rotation looks like it could accelerate from here.
$IWM can't go three days without finishing at its low. Clock starts over.
$IWM can't go three days without finishing at its low. Clock starts over.
$IWM having a hard time getting above its election day closing price.
The shift to bullish yen relative sentiment looks like it's helping silver so far this week (but it's early).
The shift to bullish yen relative sentiment looks like it's helping silver so far this week (but it's early).
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