Resource Alpha @ResourceAlphaHQ

If $SILVER has you uneasy, look at the chart before the feed. The correction did its job. Price broke the falling wedge and is now sitting on the line it just cleared. That is a textbook retest, not a breakdown. As long as we hold above that upper boundary, the breakout is intact. A drop back through the line changes the picture. Then 51 is back on the table. That is the level, not a reason to panic while price is still holding the retest.

Yesterday, in the Sunday note, I wrote that the EWZ retest looked done. Today the market gapped it 13%. EWZ had just finished a retest of a wedge that held it for the better part of two decades. I said the move from there was higher. The trigger was the first round. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, 47% to 45%. Markets were set up for the other result. That is a gap, not a slow grind out of the retest.

Energy still looks like the optional part of this move. I don’t buy that. Oil priced in gold is sitting in a box after breaking a line that held it down since 2023. Gas priced in gold is on a floor that has caught it for ten years. The barrel ran through 100 and is coming back into the breakout. The charts don’t show the barrels in storage. The US reserve is at 283.8 million, the lowest since 1982. The IEA already let out 400 million in March. On October 2 the G7 agreed another 100 million. A stockpile you keep opening is not a ceiling. You are spending it. Charts are in the note: resourcealpha.substack.com/p/why-energy-i…

One of the most bullish charts out there right now. A gigantic inverse head and shoulders just completed on the $FCG First Trust Natural Gas ETF. Left shoulder 2016. Head in the 2020 washout. Right shoulder into 2025. Neckline near 30 — broken. We are very early in this structure. The base took a decade to build. The breakout is weeks old.

Silver/SPX already broke the 10-year resistance line. Then price coiled in a bullish wedge. The downside break of that wedge looks like the possible fakeout I flagged in Sunday’s note — not automatically a new downtrend. Base case now: finish the retest of the old 20-year ceiling, now support, and turn higher. If this line is lost, metals get more downside. That is the lower-probability path — not zero. Sitting in cash and waiting for a deeper wash is still the expensive side of this chart. If the ratio leaves this line, you chase. If it tags it again, the damage is the kind you can live with. Sunday note (free): resourcealpha.substack.com/p/the-most-imp…

Gold and silver look like a flush. The junior ratios do not. $GDXJ vs gold and $SILJ vs silver held their averages and bounced on a down day in spot. That is not how a breakdown starts.

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Silver is walking into the full retest of the wedge cap. The feed is already loud. The chart is not. Hold this line → the breakout stays alive and the path of least resistance is higher. Lose it and slip back inside the wedge → $50 comes back on the table. Two outcomes. One line.

The most important $SILVER chart on my desk is not silver. It is silver versus the S&P. Sunday note — three charts, one asymmetry. Free. resourcealpha.substack.com/p/the-most-imp… Physics > Paper.

From that 2.64 call: +20%. Hope you’re still on this road with me.

Resource Alpha @ResourceAlphaHQ

2 months ago

$NATGAS played out almost like a roadmap. Even though we pulled back before hitting my final targets, the move played out as expected. Now, we’ve just completed a textbook retest right at a massive structural support line (2.64). The technical setup points to a strong bounce

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@CTrader_Alex The setup is still running. First was the break of the downtrend. Second was the retest. Price has already moved off that line. A strong dollar can stall it into a range. That’s not invalidation. The monthly structure is still intact.

If the last few red days in metals have you staring at the screen - look at this instead. $DBC is a broad commodity basket - energy, metals, agriculture priced against the S&P. That ratio just broke a multi-year downtrend. That’s the start of the next commodity run, not a dead-cat bounce. If you are in commodities, you are not fighting the trend.

@tradlvalu Yes. $DBC is the liquid ETF most people use to express that basket. The chart was the Bloomberg Commodity Index itself - same neighborhood, not the same ticker.

This is one of the cleanest multi-year setups in the entire commodity space. Look at the Bloomberg Commodity Index. A massive cup-and-handle pattern stretching back over a decade is now pressing against resistance near 138. If this breaks and holds, it won’t be a quiet move. History shows these kinds of structures on the broad commodity complex tend to unleash a powerful, multi-month wave higher across energy, metals, and softs. That means: • Sticky inflation returning through the physical cost of living • Central banks trapped between rising prices and soaring debt costs • Accelerating capital rotation out of paper assets into real ones The paper narrative of “cooling inflation” is about to collide with physical reality. The breakout, if confirmed, changes the entire macro regime. Physics > Paper.

True. 2021 broke out and then rolled over. Why yields matter: back then money was still cheap. Rates then shot higher and the dollar got strong- that crushed commodities versus the S&P. Now the US 10 year is already above 5% and Japan is at 30-year highs. That squeeze already happened. This is not the 2021 setup.

@PrognosticApex Silver/Oil doesn’t invalidate a gold structure. Different chart. Oil can lead the ratio from a cheap base and gold still holds the arc. That’s rotation, not contradiction. You didn’t refute the box. You changed the subject.

Red metals. Green dollar. The feed is panicking. That is not a thesis change. $Gold already broke the bull flag. What you’re watching now is a test of the arc — it has not been invalidated. If we lose the underside, my base case is a fill of the imbalance I marked. The box. Not a collapse. Miners will get punched harder. That’s normal in a bull market. If price accepts below the box, the read is wrong. Until then: zoom out, drink the coffee. Physics > Paper.

@stevefa52163832 I don’t see the ego in a chart. Price either respects the structure or it doesn’t.