Robin Bertlin @RobinBertlin

Mid-week:

What are the odds? 🤔 October 1929 Dow Jones $DJI pattern vs October 2026

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

2 weeks ago

Dow Jones $DJI 125 year trendline update. What happens next? 🧐

12 21 105 188K 29

S&P 500 futures are rolling over right on schedule. Will the October 2018 pattern play out, or are we just going drop straight down?

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

4 days ago

Given the NYSE announcement today that 23/5 trading begins on December 6th, I find it particularly interesting that the October 2018 pattern peaks on December 9th. The overnight trade has notoriously been when most of the gains are made, when retail can't trade. With the

4 18 141 232K 72

The U.S. mortgage market is mired in its biggest recession in history. Today, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a purchase index of 129.2. Down 60% from the pandemic peak and down 18% YoY. This indicates just how few Americans are going out and buying homes with mortgages today. Today's levels are near the lowest ever (only a handful of weeks in 2023/24 were lower). And demand today is even worse than during the 2008-2012 housing bust. Shockingly, 70% of home sales are still financed with a mortgage. Showing you just how poor the demand environment is today. The upshot is that this is a great time to get out there and make below market offers. As many sellers are desparate (inventory just hit 1.2 million nationally). To see where mortgage appls have dropped most, search your ZIP: reventure.app/map/WmID4mIqxX

The crash started last week. It will soon reach the acceleration phase. And then all of this bull shit will be replaced by dead silence.

BREAKING: The US 10Y Note Yield falls to 5.00% for the first time since September 23rd as the selloff in technology stocks deepens.

Oh my, CCC junk bonds just hit 18%! 🫪 Debt stress in distress. It’s nearing.

The Great Martis @great_martis

4 days ago

It's a bird... It's a plane... NO, it's CCC junk bonds hitting 17.66%! 😱

41 200 2K 115K 150

It's a bird... It's a plane... NO, it's CCC junk bonds hitting 17.66%! 😱

The Great Martis @great_martis

a week ago

CCC Junk bonds just hit 17.61% 😱 God help us all.

16 76 538 81K 31

Wall Street market predictions are solely based upon forward profit estimates; which are solely dependent upon the misallocation of capital based upon forward profit estimates. This AI Ponzi scheme does not go in reverse.

The era of abundant, buffered liquidity is over. The real stress test of the post-QT plumbing starts now. A widening SOFR–IORB spread is the definitive smoke signal that reserves are getting tight and funding stress is building. That’s exactly when the banking system’s liquidity starts to crack. Keep your eyes on the repo market.

Indonesia is done. Indonesia’s stock market is on the edge of a catastrophic feedback loop. MSCI warned that Indonesian stocks may no longer qualify for its global indexes. Suspicious trading. Possible manipulation. Poor transparency. The market responded with its biggest single-day crash since 1998. Down 11.5%. But the initial crash is not the problem. The market is already down 30% this year. Foreign investors have pulled nearly $5 billion. The rupiah has weakened past 18,000 per dollar. Now MSCI is considering removing Indonesia from both emerging and frontier market indexes entirely. If that happens, every major global fund tracking those indexes is forced to sell Indonesian stocks automatically. Forced selling into a market already down 30%. With foreign capital already fleeing. With a currency already under pressure. This is not a contained emerging market story. This is what a currency and market crisis looks like in the early stages. And the worst of the forced selling hasn’t even begun.

$VIX Nailed the spike few weeks back on the volatility index. My next big prediction is that it goes parabola, dwarfing the 2008 spike .

Wow, this is extremely unusual $VIX term structure. Normally it's sloping upward. They have it pinned at 18.4 for the remainder of the year even with the midterms coming up. Basically nobody is betting we get another volatility event until mid-December. Anyone recall another period of time when the VIX structure looked like this? 🧐

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

5 days ago

October 2018 scenario update: Anyone find it unusual this pattern ends on January 4th, when the new Congress takes office?

13 25 136 56K 57

S&P 500 $SPX saw the largest put volume day (in $ notional) in history last Friday 🚨

Well, this post struck a nerve. Calls for a "Black Monday" stock market crash are trending again. Last night, we took the opposite view. As with every market prediction we make, there are thousands of people urging others to "fade" us. But take a look at the chart below. It shows every time "Black Monday" has trended on social media since May 2025. History suggests that calls for a "Black Monday" crash have repeatedly presented some of the best buying opportunities. And as we outline in our analysis below, the majority of stocks in the S&P 500 have already experienced a bear market, EVEN AS the index trades near record highs; a largely unprecedented occurence. How is this possible? Read our full analysis here: x.com/KobeissiLetter…

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

6 days ago

Calls for a "Black Monday" are spreading rapidly across social media right now. If history is any guide, this means the S&P 500 should hit 8,000 soon. Ignore the noise. Read our analysis below.

446 769 9K 2.3M 3K

Put option volume is skyrocketing: Notional trading volume in S&P 500 put options surged to a record $3.3 trillion on Friday. Additionally, the US Dollar value of S&P 500 put options traded during Friday's session was +330% above the 2024 average. By comparison, before the 2020 pandemic, daily volumes ranged between $100 billion and $500 billion. Meanwhile, total CBOE put option volume rose to 9.6 million contracts on Friday, the 4th-highest since 2015. Investors aggressively bought puts into Friday's close.

On Friday the VIX futures had their biggest one day gain since the START of the March Meltdown. Which left the S&P 500 camped at key support.

Semiconductor index: It is not a matter of IF the 8000 gap closure occurs, but WHEN. Won't be long...

The other signal from March is a surge in Consumer Staples which I showed last week. Note however the difference in breadth (lower pane) at this top versus in March. The broader market has ALREADY crashed.

I will say this only to my closest followers: I feel like MAGA buffoonery hit the brick wall of reality this week. I’m ALL IN MAGA CRASH.