$USDT.D [macro video update V2]
With this video I hope to be a calm voice in this storm that we experience on a daily basis on X.
Elaborating on my HTF expectational orderflow while keeping things simple and effective. Just like we did at the August lows, we are doing it again
Bad low starts with the low taking place in an area where there is nothing but liquidity on the left.
From there if the low has no accumulation or good bottoming formation from a candle structure perspective —> bad low.
If price then continues to build sellside liquidity above that low —> even worse low
How to trade FOMC:
News events like FOMC are multi-layered manipulative schemes:
Data release takes place at 20.00 (UTC+1) and press conference speech starts at 20.30.
The data release at 20.00 causes an immediate liquidity injection and price will search for buy-and sellside liquidity —> expect local highs and lows to be taken out.
This is not the real move.
After the liquidity grab on the data release expect price to consolidate going into the speech / during the press conference speech.
The speech is not a data release and won’t cause an immediate liquidity injection. Instead around the end of the speech price will usually start it’s 2nd manipulative run —> this is where you want price to run into your key POI.
If price breaks MS after hitting your key POI —> expect an aggressive reversal to take place for the remainder of the day.
We ONLY apply this theory in trading environments where price is meeting our usual #TCT confirmations.
Example:
Price is within a #TCT distribution model, having two taps at the high and a clear 3rd tap POI.
Pre-FOMC:
Price is moving up towards 3rd tap POI
20.00 data release:
Liquidity grabs locally towards buyside and/or sellside liquidity
20.00-20.45 pre-speech/speech:
Consolidation below 3rd tap POI
20.45 during speech/post-speech:
Upwards expansion mitigating 3rd tap POI —> bearish BOS = short.
Aggressive reversal for remainder of the session/day.
26th of September:
“We might take the ATH once more on BTC but I am expecting it to be from a deviation perspective, not a continuation”
Well, 2 months later and that could have not developed any better.
Link:
youtu.be/nzCNC7iLVcQ?si…
You are going to go through many cycles in
life where it feels like everything is working and then others where nothing is working
Embrace them both because neither last forever
$BTC
I just had a realization moment during this mornings london stream that I wanted to share with you all on here:
From a statististical perspective there is around a +65% to put in your first pivot of the week on Monday or Tuesday.
Meaning if you have a bearish week the weekly high tends to establish on Monday or Tuesday and vice versa.
We have been pre-planning a macro distribution on BTC months in advance and the confirmation of the macro reversal was an aggressive sell-off --> indicating a change in price behavior --> and from there a macro reversal towards 74K
What is so fascinating to see is that the moment we confirmed our macro distribution on the 10th of October, every single week has delivered bearish orderflow, with the weekly highs getting put in on monday/tuesday followed by a sell-off (mostly monday).
I was always confident on shorting pivots on Monday but I never made the realization of the true algorithmic price behavior that price showcases.
Blue = weekly open
Red = weekly high
Yello = bearish displacement
I will be calling this algorithmic selling:
Once you confirm your macro reversal --> expect algorithmic selling to take place --> it will allow you to gain even more confidence in your technical confirmations on monday and tuesdays.
Let's see if this weeks delivers the same or if it will be the first time the algo's allow for a relief back up.
Trading will expose one of the most useless thought patterns you can have:
“If I had taken that trade…”
“If I held a little longer…”
“If I sized differently…”
The problem is simple.
The word “if” doesn’t exist in trading.
You either had the confirmations and executed.
Or you didn’t.
There’s no credit for almost pulling the trigger.
No financial reward for hindsight.
No progress in replaying missed entries in your head.
Examples:
▪️ You watched a clean setup form but hesitated.
Price moved without you.
Thinking “if I entered there I would be up 20 percent” won’t make you better.
Studying *why* you hesitated will.
▪️ You broke your rules and closed early.
Price continued in your direction.
Telling yourself “if I held, I’d have doubled the trade” doesn’t fix anything.
Understanding the emotional trigger that caused the exit does.
▪️ You chased late.
Got stopped.
“if I waited” isn’t feedback.
It’s regret disguised as logic.
The only thoughts that matter after the candle closes:
▪️ Did I follow my system
▪️ Where was the trigger
▪️ Did I execute clean
▪️ What can be improved next time
Everything else is emotional noise.
Hindsight thinking keeps you stuck in fantasy.
Execution thinking turns you into a trader.
Learn. Adjust. Move on.
No more “if”.
Only process and execution.
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