Niu @SimmoNiu

This is what I'm patiently waiting for $TSLA

Getting really interesting.

Still my play: If you see $SPY below 760 before or on Wednesday post-FOMC sell off then just buy calls. If you see $SPY go to 770 or a bit higher, short it then re-enter calls after post-FOMC sell off. Anyway calls win, tomorrow could be a chop fest to build liquidity for a big move on Wednesday so take a day off would not hurt you 👍

youtube.com/watch?v=Zw0I7k… 最近看了一段Steve Eisman的采访，很有意思，分享一下。他是因提前识别美国次贷危机而成名的投资者，也是《大空头》中Mark Baum的原型 现在整个AI产业链潜在的重大风险之一，或者说最容易被市场拿来炒作的话题，重点在concentration risk 比如 $NVDA 的5大直接客户占 $NVDA 期末AR的70%。从采购公司的角度看，非常多的厂商采购 $NVDA 的芯片， $NVDA 确实得到了revenue和order，但是这些采购公司的ROI足够吗？还是说这是一个不得不参加的游戏？ 就像马斯克这几天的最新言论，大量neocloud厂商最终可能面临失败和整合，只有少数能够存活，但是现在很多大中小厂商都要参与这个竞赛 这些云厂商的部分AI算力业务和新增大额合同，客户又很集中，主要依赖少数大型客户，比如OpenAI和Anthropic 再继续看这些购买算力的AI公司，这两家最火热的AI公司，经营表现已经出现差异。媒体报道OpenAI在2026年Q2收入约67亿美元，营业亏损约123亿美元；Anthropic最新披露的2026年上半年收入约162.86亿美元，营业亏损约6.93亿美元，其中Q2已经实现约9.74亿美元营业利润 所以不能简单说两家都没有盈利能力，但它们的高估值显然依赖未来持续增长和利润兑现。我认为市场price in了过多未来预期 按照评级机构此前的估计， $ORCL 当时约一半的未来合同储备来自OpenAI。并且从交付到服务再到付款，各个环节都能兑现，这些合同才能逐步转化为 $ORCL 的收入和现金流 设想，如果其中一环，比如OpenAI或者Anthropic出现了自身财务问题，这可能会传导到整个股市和美国经济，毕竟AI产业链企业的良好营收预期，是此前推动股市上涨的重要力量之一 一环扣一环，关键一环出现问题，上下游企业的营收和现金流都可能受到影响。如果供应商同时投资这些AI客户，客户再用融资采购供应商的产品和服务，风险就会进一步相互绑定。这就是客户集中与循环融资结合后的脆弱性 所以OpenAI、Anthropic这些公司不只是营收需要持续增长，还需要改善单位经济效益，并维持足够的现金和融资能力 同时Steve对护城河的讨论非常有趣。LLM公司的模型领先优势，可能不像传统企业的护城河那样稳定，尤其对个人订阅用户来说，可以在不同LLM之间快速切换，今天ChatGPT比较强，明天Grok比较强，订阅服务开启和取消非常方便。当然，企业客户涉及工作流、数据和合规，切换并不一定同样容易 所以LLM企业就要不断投入R&D，开发更新、更快、更聪明的模型 传统软件企业通常为轻资产企业，价值更多来自软件、知识产权和客户关系，但是现在建设AI基础设施的科技公司，需要用大量现金，并融资建设数据中心，同时设备的更新换代也很快 Michael Burry就讨论过GPU的depreciation年限延长至5–6年是否合理。如果新产品的性能和能效提升很快，已经花重资买入的GPU，其经济价值和投资回收能力就可能受到影响。但新产品出现，并不代表旧GPU立即被淘汰。Steve认为，相比折旧年限，当前更关键的是最终客户需求能否支撑整条投资链 这些投入中的很大一部分属于维持竞争力所必需的投入，不投入就可能落后，但投入本身也不保证有足够回报 Steve提到了一些他更愿意研究的公司，这些公司都是收到其他企业CapEx的公司，比如 $NVDA 、 $MU 、 $GEV 、 $ANET 、 $CSCO 、 $ETN 。类似的还有 $AVGO 的定制芯片和网络设备、 $TSM 的晶圆制造和先进封装、 $COHR 的光通信，以及 $VRT 的供电和散热设备 这些公司相对于LLM公司和云厂商，较少直接承担某一家模型能否胜出的风险，但仍然受到AI资本开支周期、客户集中和估值的影响，不能简单理解为风险都更小。 未来AI投资能否持续兑现回报，很重要的出口是AI应用层面，包括AI Agent的发展 之前帖子我也谈到过Gavin Baker的看法。他预测，未来在基础模型公司的应用层价值竞争中， $GOOG 、#xAI、 $META 更可能保留企业价值，因为这些公司拥有大量独特的一手数据。这是他对基础模型公司价值分配的预测，不是说整个AI应用市场最终只剩这三家公司 目前部分AI公司的股价已经数倍上涨，但是整个产业向现实生活渗透的发展，仍然处于早期。想一想生活中对我们的影响，很多人的直接体验仍主要是使用语言模型，Agent和机器人还远远没有渗透到千家万户 但产业仍在早期，不代表股价也在早期。技术可以继续发展，股价却可能因为此前price in了太多预期而回调 我保持我的观点：我看好AI发展，也会持有AI相关股票，但同时会盯紧投入产出比，以及整个产业链的资金依赖和风险传导 禁止AI末日论，禁止动不动就拿AI泡沫论下结论。我们走一步看一步，用实际数据判断，不要天天散播恐慌气氛

$TSLA 3 month high, now at down trend line right above 200DMA, 🧨🧨

R.I.P 韩国散户10月买美股的钱73.9%买了SOXL

3X Long Labubu @labubu_trader

a day ago

This means any bounce of semis could be fragile and unstable. If you study the fund flow of KOSPI in June/July, it showed similar patterns.

11 13 196 47K 73

$SPY update: Last post for today, it’s good to be back in the game. Expect a pump on Wednesday then sell off after FOMC leading to a strong buying up til Friday (Monday is 11/2). Remember $VIX is above 20 they will slam it down, trade the chart.

$SPY update: So far so good

JLoc (Jay Loc) @Fatcat3748

3 days ago

$SPY update: Last post for today, it’s good to be back in the game. Expect a pump on Wednesday then sell off after FOMC leading to a strong buying up til Friday (Monday is 11/2). Remember $VIX is above 20 they will slam it down, trade the chart.

23 11 189 19K 60

$QQQ: I’d rather see a few weeks of chop around $680 than a straight drop to $660. The weekly uptrend channel is what I’m watching. Another 3.5% down would bring $QQQ close to $680. My preferred scenario is a pullback into that area, followed by sideways trading into roughly November 11. Why November 11? That’s 24 trading days after the October 8 Momentum Top Divergence signal, the window I’m using for this setup. It’s a timing estimate, not a guaranteed turning point. A move straight to $660 would mean another 6% or so down. I neither expect nor want to see that scenario, but if it happens, I believe it could be the last great buying opportunity of the year.

Timing matters. The market has a way of wearing retail investors down. You think it’s close to the bottom. It drops further. You can barely take it anymore, but decide to hold on a little longer. Another selloff. Eventually, fear takes over. “If I don’t sell now, the losses will only get worse.” You sell. The market is getting ready to bottom. You close the app and stop looking. It starts going up. A few weeks later, you open the app again. Now you’re even more frustrated. FOMO. Buy back in. Same game, another round. $QQQ $SOXL

iain @ohiain

a day ago

I think the market needs to frustrate a few more people before giving us what we really want to see. Call me crazy, but I'd actually love to see 1 more flush lower to trap the late shorts, followed by an aggressive rip toward ATHs and a few weeks of consolidation at new highs.

22 7 166 16K 31

If I told you the next incredible trading environment was 90 days away, could you actually sit in cash until then? I think most traders would say yes, but their actions would tell a completely different story, and I've been guilty of this myself recently. We get so caught up trying to nail the exact bottom that we forget you don't have to buy the lowest candle to make an unbelievable amount of $$ in the next uptrend. I think about it like trying to catch a train... everybody wants to be the first person on board, even if that means standing on the tracks while it's still coming toward them. I'd much rather wait until I know which direction it's heading and hop on at the next stop. If this correction takes another 2-3 months to work itself out, so be it. That gives broken leaders time to rebuild bases, moving averages time to curl higher + new RS names time to separate themselves from the pack. When the market finally turns, there will likely be DAYS and WEEKS of opportunities to position ourselves in the strongest names. Missing the bottoming day doesn't mean I missed the move. The real money is made catching a meaningful piece of the underlying trend, not proving to everyone that I bought the exact low. And that's what I'm trying to remind myself right now. Would I rather spend the next 3 months taking unnecessary paper cuts trying to predict the turn, or preserve my capital & mental energy so I can actually press when my edge returns? Something I've been chewing on lately... I would love to hear your thoughts as well. Chart: $QQQ.

@grok What's wrong with Brazil?

Manz🌪 @ManzTrades

a day ago

Brazil’s Stock Market Opens: -19.5%

158 382 4K 598K 302

$QQQ WEEKLY FORECAST: Monday: Green dead cat bounce Tuesday: Chop/small green Wednesday: BIG RED Thursday: More red Friday: Green SHRECK bounce I see it as a certainty NQ tests its daily bearish FVG at 29,320ish (about 710 QQQ). I also could see us getting to the midpoint range of the gap on NQ at 29520 (about 715/718 QQQ) There are many ways this week can go so I am NOT married to this forecast. I will not be swing trading much, day trade type of week for me. VERY key levels on both sides and a high VIX Will send updates throughout the week and new expected paths if I get early week wrong! ALWAYS trade the chart in front of you.

QQQ 月K

🚨 $SPX IS COOKING SOMETHING MASSIVE 2 years inside a Rising Wedge on the weekly Higher highs, weaker legs, momentum fading on every push Rising wedge = trend running out of fuel. The bigger the wedge, the harder the unwind Price: 7,640, still coiled under the upper line The roadmap: - Dip to the lower trendline, longs get flushed - Bounce + one last fakeout higher - Blow-off to $8,200, peak greed - Wedge breaks - First stop: 6,300 - Fake recovery to sell into - Final leg: 4,800 by early 2028 Mega-caps carry the index while breadth rots Same setup as 2000 and 2007: euphoria at highs, thin participation, everyone sure “this time is different” When $8,200 prints, the timeline will scream 10k That’s your exit, not your entry Smart money sells strength. Protect profits. Don’t marry the top

Klarck @0xklarck

3 days ago

🚨 S&P 500 IS LOADING A MASSIVE DUMP $SPX is sitting near all-time highs But the 200 EMA is still FAR below, around 5,970 Price is ~7,657. That's almost 22% away from the 200 EMA Markets tend to close gaps like that And almost nobody is paying attention to what happens next

8 26 150 48K 60

my plan into the next gann window $spx mon = dead cat bounce 7710 tue = drop 7570 wed = local bottom 7535 thur = bounce into 7660 fri = monthly close around 7630 --- the first week of nov = big rally into new ATH

Looks like the same solid path $SPY, puts at 770-771

ancient warrior @warri0r719

2 days ago

my plan into the next gann window $spx mon = dead cat bounce 7710 tue = drop 7570 wed = local bottom 7535 thur = bounce into 7660 fri = monthly close around 7630 --- the first week of nov = big rally into new ATH

24 64 511 61K 293

@GAndersonTrades Excited with a big bag of cash 💰

🚨🚨헤지펀드들은 미국 중간선거가 끝나고 일주일 정도 지난 11월 15일 전후로 기존 물량 정리를 마무리할 전망 저도 이 유튜브 봤는데 좋은 인사이트였습니다🫡

북극성 @PolarisLog

3 days ago

주식 물려있다면 이 날짜를 기억하세요. 이곳은 성지가 될겁니다 (문홍철) - 최근 미국 국채 금리가 내려가는데도 주가는 함께 빠져 개인 투자자들이 혼란을 겪음 - 언론은 AI 투자 대비 수익성이 의심스럽고 경기 침체가 우려되어 투자자들이 안전자산으로 돈을 옮긴다는 해석을 내놓음 - 실제

48 231 1K 189K 1K