Split Ticket @SplitTicket_
Political analysis at your fingertips. By @HWLavelleMaps, @lxeagle17, @Thorongil16, @politicsmaps, @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ [email protected] split-ticket.org Joined November 2021-
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🚨NEW POLL🚨 Joe Biden: 37 Donald Trump: 39 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 11 WITH LEANERS: Joe Biden: 40 Donald Trump: 41 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 16 n=847 RV/821 LVs, with an oversample of 300 voters aged 18-29. split-ticket.org/2024/04/15/cha…
Following Bernie Moreno’s victory in the Buckeye State’s GOP Senate primary, we’re moving Ohio back into the Tossup column. Read about our evaluation of Brown’s path to reelection here: split-ticket.org/2024/04/09/tem…
NEW survey from @SplitTicket_, exclusively surveying voters 18-29: Joe Biden: 35% Donald Trump: 25% Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: 23% n=227 LV, 3/19-3/21 This is part of a larger experiment. Read more here: split-ticket.org/2024/03/27/we-…
TOMORROW: The results of a small Split Ticket survey on young voters. Subscribe for free and get it in your inbox! split-ticket.org/subscribe
Check out our primary preview looking at the key contests in Ohio and Illinois. The big race tonight is the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, which we think Moreno is favored to win. split-ticket.org/2024/03/19/pri…
🚨RATINGS CHANGE🚨: #AZSen: Tossup -> Leans Democratic split-ticket.org/2024/03/07/kar…
The presidential primaries are getting most of the attention, but there are a lot of high-stakes congressional primaries under the hood. Check out our preview for a rundown: split-ticket.org/2024/03/05/our…
Support for marijuana legalization has surged over the past decade, having rapidly gained favor with voters in both parties. Our latest piece breaks down the shifting coalitions of marijuana referendums: split-ticket.org/2024/02/29/the…
Will Colorado succeed in keeping former President Trump off the ballot? Probably not. The Supreme Court will soon decide in Trump v. Anderson — one of this term’s most important cases. split-ticket.org/2024/02/19/tru…
Last year, Republicans swept the state of Louisiana, but not every race ended with the same outcome. Here's a detailled look at how Black voters fuelled a landslide win for now-Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser. split-ticket.org/2024/02/17/wha…
Race call: Democrat Tom Suozzi (D) wins the #NY03 special election against Nassau County legislator Mazi Pilip (R). Suozzi will take up the seat vacated by George Santos following the latter's expulsion.
Today, voters head to the polls in #NY03, where Mazi Pilip (R) faces off against Tom Suozzi (D). Our model finds Suozzi a favorite based on the available data, but with room for an upset. split-ticket.org/2024/02/13/our…
History suggests Larry Hogan, like past Governors, will make a good Senate candidate. Just not good enough to win in Maryland. split-ticket.org/2024/02/11/lar…
In the Obama years, conventional wisdom held that Republicans performed better in low-turnout elections when voters stayed home. Eight years since, the tables may have turned. split-ticket.org/2024/02/09/a-t…
Race Call: With all polls closing in New Hampshire, Split Ticket projects that Donald Trump has defeated Nikki Haley in the presidential primary.
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
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Galen Metzger🪬📈.. @GalenMetzger1
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
Ryan Brune @BruneElections
20K Followers 583 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.
ET Californian 🌊�.. @ET_Californian
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15K Followers 972 Following Former campaign finance hack, former staffer at OU International Human Rights Clinic. Attorney. Choctaw.
Political Election Pr.. @tencor_7144
23K Followers 235 Following @Elections_Daily contributor Views expressed here are my own Retweets ≠ Support #BramnickForGovernor #NJPol #ET CENTRAL JERSEY EXISTS
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118K Followers 526 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Naperville Politics G.. @NapervillePol
4K Followers 1K Following A guy from Naperville interested in politics. Lover of VPap, Racedep enthusiast. AKA the moderate wing of fascism
Special Puppy 🧦�.. @SpecialPuppy1
7K Followers 574 Following I’m not afraid of RUFFhousing.Bernie Sanders-Bill Clinton Democrat. Intriguing, Infuriating, and Completely Baffling. CEO,influencer, anti-masturbation activist
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Go @numberzgo
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Ocasional Day Hiking @day_hiking
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Mattéo 🇪🇺🇫�.. @matt_tl_PV
121 Followers 1K Following Etudiant 🖥️⌨️ 🚗📺🎮🏎️⚛️ République / Voiture / Ferroviaire / Atome @matt_tl_ Ce que je raconte est souvent pas intéressant ! 🇫🇷🇪🇺
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roe L @RoeLamirand
252 Followers 269 Following progressive, animal lover, rescue adopter, prior military, petition signers , anti fascist Republicans & christian nationalists, want books & gun laws
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cody @thomas_73_
395 Followers 4K Following basic user • browns • guardians • blue jackets • cavs • cleveland • ohio • individual rights • classical liberal
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26 Followers 572 Following On a quest for knowledge in an unforgivable world, with dogs at my side
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3 Followers 121 Following trans, doggirl, social democrat, insufferable, 18
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2K Followers 3K Following Sports & Poli Data. OH Small Biz Owner. Frmr MLB/NFL data guy. Bilingüe. Profitable v Props. Created new poll metrics #BlackLivesMatter. Threads: RealCarlAllen
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Mark Tough @ianyncmd
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Clement Atlee @HaroldWils96799
17 Followers 219 Following Classical Social Democrat 🌹 and Devolution Hound, Social Libertarian. 🇮🇱🇵🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼🇺🇳🇪🇺
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41 Followers 232 Following
mussy 🇵🇷🇺�.. @mussyisannoying
435 Followers 917 Following 6 digit osu player i love my wife pro-immigrant he/him
Eric Sese @ericsese_
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Jesse Conrad @Jesse_Conrad
80 Followers 2K Following My life consists of coffee & politics 🏳️🌈 Now:Berger Hirschberg Strategies Prior:The Advance Group, Freedom House Reading, PA →Brooklyn, NY Views are mine
David Helmick @ThaDavidHelmick
361 Followers 2K Following Mahoning County GOP Central Committeeman. Populist. Former Traficant Democrat. Union Thug. Ross Perot fan. Basically a millennial Al Bundy.🇺🇸🇷🇴🇩🇪
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Foam of flowers rocke.. @foam_boat
18 Followers 378 Following lurking, mostly-- politics, climate change (doom?)
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44K Followers 2K Following @cal alum + lecturer; AI/software engineer; elections + modeling @SplitTicket_. Chelsea ⚽, Sharks 🏒, Giants ⚾. ✉️ [email protected]. views my own. he/him
Max @maxtmcc
19K Followers 455 Following @SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
Drew Savicki @DrewSav
40K Followers 6K Following Politics, elections, stuff. CT-IL-NC. Bad speller. KISS fan, all around pop culture guy. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutistic🧙♂️🗺️ He/Him
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
Ryan Brune @BruneElections
20K Followers 583 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.
Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven
11K Followers 73 Following 23 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
Blake Allen @Blake_Allen13
15K Followers 972 Following Former campaign finance hack, former staffer at OU International Human Rights Clinic. Attorney. Choctaw.
Political Election Pr.. @tencor_7144
23K Followers 235 Following @Elections_Daily contributor Views expressed here are my own Retweets ≠ Support #BramnickForGovernor #NJPol #ET CENTRAL JERSEY EXISTS
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Chaz Nuttycombe @ChazNuttycombe
27K Followers 527 Following Director of @CNalysis.com. Nonpartisan state legislative elections expert and forecaster of six years. Opinions my own. VT '24. Contact: [email protected]
Niles Francis @NilesGApol
22K Followers 2K Following 22 (he/him/his) was: @GeorgiaStateU, @decisiondeskhq now: @GeorgiaSouthern, Peach State Politics
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 526 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Special Puppy 🧦�.. @SpecialPuppy1
7K Followers 574 Following I’m not afraid of RUFFhousing.Bernie Sanders-Bill Clinton Democrat. Intriguing, Infuriating, and Completely Baffling. CEO,influencer, anti-masturbation activist
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Uncrewed @Uncrewed
6K Followers 811 Following The politician birthday guy. @CNalysis Campaign Finance Analyst. Lauren Underwood stan. Some people may know me as Chris. DM's are open! (He/Him)
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16K Followers 6K Following Chief Technology Officer @POLITICO — ❦ #TheSqueezle ❦ #TheGiblette ❦ @beckybowers
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793 Followers 2K Following Senior editor @FiveThirtyEight. Philly-based, and have probably told you about my other project @WTL_Philly. Past: Floor coverage @CQnow @rollcall.
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245 Followers 159 Following Data Science @DecisionDeskHQ. Politics. Downstate IL, Yale ‘25
Neil O'Brian @NeilOBrian4
741 Followers 1K Following Roots of Polarization (Aug '24): https://t.co/hSjT4DsmA5 Assistant Prof | University of Oregon | Studying US public opinion, parties, Congress | Go Bills!
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13K Followers 830 Following nataliej on https://t.co/jAQBkpBv42 Opinions are my own. VP @GQRResearch, columnist @nationaljournal, polsci PhD. Fmr @PRRIpoll, @JustCapital, @HuffPost, @MaristPoll
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49K Followers 4K Following @Semafor Washington editor. Formerly: Slate, The Atlantic.
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2K Followers 3K Following @RDRNews breaking news, courts & politics reporter. Past: @KOB4 @RDRNews & @HavreDaily. Reach me at [email protected]. Usual disclaimers apply.
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5K Followers 3K Following @NBCNews White House reporter, ex-Washington Examiner. Signal: 202-702-6384 [email protected] [email protected]
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1.4M Followers 2K Following The other one. @PodSaveAmerica, @CrookedMedia, https://t.co/mKXKFl0EF4, https://t.co/zvWhe0ETFE
Toby MG @TobyMGData
579 Followers 1K Following Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 15 of the last 18 elections. he/him
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15K Followers 894 Following Berkeley CS Prof, focused on data and computation.
Galen Druke @galendruke
51K Followers 1K Following Host and producer of the @FiveThirtyEight politics podcast for @ABC News. Previously @WPR, @WNYC Off-duty Galen: https://t.co/Qmm8nl11fT
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Will Bredderman @WillBredderman
8K Followers 7K Following @TheDailyBeast Sr. Researcher. Award-winning investigative reporter. Priors: @CrainsNewYork, @Observer, @BrooklynPaper. [email protected].
Jessica Piper @jsscppr
2K Followers 1K Following data + elections @politico. previously @bangordailynews, @bowdoincollege. [email protected] / call or text: 207-200-7806 / also on Signal. @penguild strong.
Daniel Cox @dcoxpolls
4K Followers 786 Following Pollster, Director of @amersurveyctr @AEI; Research on Gen Z, religion, friendship, loneliness. Writing https://t.co/x818PJ7eWQ
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157K Followers 6K Following Chair, Democratic Party of Wisconsin / @WisDems. Husband and dad of three amazing kids and one glorious doggo, Pumpkin.
Mark Z. Barabak @markzbarabak
16K Followers 766 Following LA Times political columnist, with a focus on the West, from the Grand Coulee Dam to the Capitol. Cat on a tin roof. Dogs in a pile. [email protected]
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954 Followers 3K Following Asst. Prof. @unnamed school. Emory Ph.D. Hillsdale BA. Elections, voting, legislatures, maps, US South. LEGO, Red Wings, Coys, rugby, and photography.
Adam Carlson @admcrlsn
9K Followers 2K Following Recovering political pollster (formerly @gsg), current market researcher, and election nerd. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Jesse Richardson⏸�.. @PoliticalKiwi
3K Followers 135 Following Election guy. Interested in AI safety. PEPFAR stan. he/him
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1K Followers 1K Following Election map guru. B.A. in Environmental Studies w/GIS Emphasis. Masters of Science in GIS candidate. GIS Professional. 13 years of cartographic experience.
Matt Holt @mattholt33
5K Followers 2K Following @CNN political unit. My dog's name is Tank. Past lives: The Messenger (RIP), Hotline, MTP, AU. [email protected].
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53K Followers 3K Following Pollster @EchelonInsights, married an Iowa girl, author of PARTY OF THE PEOPLE, coming November 7 from Simon & Schuster.
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Rick Klein @rickklein
107K Followers 7K Following Political director @ABC. Bourbon, BBQ, baseball cards. No. 34 - 2016 Topps Allen & Ginter. Formerly @BostonGlobe @DallasNews @Princetonian
audie cornish @AudieCornish
221K Followers 2K Following journalist | interviewer | professional listener | formerly @NPR now at @CNN! my off air shenanigans on threads🧵@audieoffmic
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Brian M Knoblock 🦊.. @syferdet
100 Followers 759 Following Dept of Math, Vulprisian Academy of Sciences Writer, meteorology, mathematics / forfatter, meteorologi, matematikk Snakker norsk 🇳🇴 Base-8 Math UiB fanboy
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109K Followers 4K Following NPR Sr Political Editor/Correspondent. NPR is a private, nonprofit w/ editorial independence and less than 1% funding from Corporation for Public Broadcasting
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22K Followers 2K Following @NYMag @PoliticoMag and elsewhere. Politics, the arts, books and the city. Phone lines are open
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5K Followers 4K Following Journalist covering young people & our politics. Bylines in @nytimes @teenvogue @ellemagazine @cosmopolitan @glamourmag | Previously @cnnpolitics
The AZ - abc15 - Data.. @Garrett_Archer
119K Followers 4K Following Husband, Dad, Catholic liturgical music sponge. Former elections official. Now data/political analyst @abc15. Oracle of #ElectionTwitter. DGJ is cooler than me
PVI Guy ✯ @PviGuy
3K Followers 853 Following Posting maps of each state's Partisan Voter Index for every election https://t.co/CLcpWHtWIM
Marshall Cohen @MarshallCohen
76K Followers 7K Following CNN reporter. I cover major DOJ probes, Congressional inquiries and legal cases, often with a focus on democracy, voting and disinformation. From Philly.my gut has been vindicated so hard...i knew that sherrod would have won if he was on the ballot in 2022
Congratulations @SplitTicket_ . Thanks for the fun @ChazNuttycombe .
Forecaster Madness final round! @SplitTicket_ vs. Sabato's Crystal Ball @Center4Politics
Congressional elections over time, courtesy of @SplitTicket_
Long weekend PSA: if you’ve enjoyed our forecasts, models, and pieces about young voters, demographic shifts, candidate quality, and state trends, please subscribe for free to @SplitTicket_ — our presidential ratings will be out very soon 👀👀 split-ticket.org/subscribe
Per request — there is a strong correlation between our past and future @SplitTicket_ WAR scores, which to me suggests that our models do pick up the signals regarding underlying candidate strength in a sound manner.
@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ here’s a Q. is the wins above replacement value in year T predictive of electoral performance i year T+1, T+2 etc? that would be a cool graph
Lines up with what we found @SplitTicket_. The overall picture is that Barnes was actually a decent candidate, and considering that he was outspent by Johnson, we had the candidate quality delta between Johnson and Barnes to be D+4. split-ticket.org/2023/01/25/our…
These plots comparing the US Senate & state assembly races are more interesting. Barnes did slightly better than Dems running against GOP incumbents. He did slightly worse than Dem incumbents, and he did essentially the same as Dems in open races.
@SplitTicket_ Individually, I'd understand dismissing each result. But Democrats have overperformed in *every* special election held this month, regardless of the profile of the race and irrespective of the district location, composition, or type. At some point, it becomes a signal.
Lot of things to ponder after that rather surprising batch of elections on Tuesday. - We favor Dems to flip the Wisconsin Supreme Court, rating the race as Leans Protasiewicz - Serious improvement in the generic ballot for Democrats. latest @SplitTicket_: split-ticket.org/2023/02/23/pri…
I probably should clear up something: The Split Ticket Discord community is not reflective of the @SplitTicket_ team's views themselves. We had no input in this map, on account of the fact that all 4 of us are tech boomers at heart in that we barely use Discord.
After some deliberation with the @SplitTicket_ discord community, I have updated the ratings of each country with US political coalitions in a generic presidential election between Republicans and Democrats.
Second year in a row where the WOW-based R loses to the R with the more rural coalition. Also see the gov primary last year. Walker 2010, Romney 2012, Cruz 2016, Vukmir 2018 all won primaries on their strength in the WOW counties.
In the Wisconsin Supreme Court's nonpartisan primary, Split Ticket can now project that Republican-aligned Daniel Kelly will advance to the April general election to face the Democratic-aligned Janet Protasiewicz, setting up an R vs D proxy election for control of the court.
@SplitTicket_ @RossBarkan Map source: split-ticket.org/2022/12/14/the…
"New Hampshire, a state with roughly half the population of Queens, has a Democratic Party with 16 full-time paid staff members. New York’s has four." A related fact: New York saw the largest rightward swing of any state in the 2022 midterms. CC: @SplitTicket_ @RossBarkan
‘The Democratic Party in New York Is a Disaster’ - The New York Times nytimes.com/2023/02/22/mag…
@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ And Dems defending 26 seats (including ME+VT), including 10 in states Trump carried!
@lxeagle17 @SplitTicket_ A Hillary Clinton presidency would’ve done a lot for them. That 2018 midterm would’ve been a bonanza for Republicans.
Hi folks — join us for the @SplitTicket_ live coverage of the Wisconsin Supreme Court elections tonight! First results drop at 9 EST! youtube.com/watch?v=HJnF2D…
Check out our initial @SplitTicket_ 2023 legislative ratings for New Jersey, where Democrats are favored to hold both chambers. A preliminary look at some of the competitive primaries and general elections already in the works: split-ticket.org/2023/02/19/our…
🚨ANNOUNCEMENT🚨 We've launched the first-ever federal candidate quality database on our site, and you can find it from the split-ticket.org homepage! We have wins-above-replacement scores for 2018, 2020, and 2022 for the House and Senate both, and interactive House maps!
Unlike Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report, @SplitTicket_ does not give the early 2023 edge to Gov Beshear’s re-election. They’re calling it a tossup.
new from me for @SplitTicket_ we kick off our gubernatorial ratings with Kentucky: 2023’s most competitive election. split-ticket.org/2023/02/14/bes…
Check out the @SplitTicket_ preview of the biggest race of the year: Kentucky Gov. @macrotargeting breaks down Democratic Governor Andy Beshear’s Tossup race. split-ticket.org/2023/02/14/bes…
@dakaner @SplitTicket_ Quite the opposite. Erlich trailed OMalley consistently all the way up to Eday, and Beshear leads in early h2hs
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