Adam Carlson @admcrlsn
Recovering political pollster (formerly @gsg) and election nerd. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own. bsky.app/profile/admcrl… Brooklyn, NY Joined December 2009-
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Adam Carlson retweeted
Cricket in heaven watching Kristi Noem have the VP nod taken from her:
Cricket in heaven watching Kristi Noem have the VP nod taken from her: https://t.co/edQT05qicA
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Adam Carlson retweeted
*taps on mic* The people we need to reach in this election have no fucking idea who James Carville is and the people whose job it is to reach those people are not taking their cues from James Carville. Please relax.
“It was technically legal and I don’t regret it” is a pretty wild strategy for damage control for shooting a 14-month old dog to death in a gravel pit. I can give you some names of solid PR firms if you want, Kristi.
“It was technically legal and I don’t regret it” is a pretty wild strategy for damage control for shooting a 14-month old dog to death in a gravel pit. I can give you some names of solid PR firms if you want, Kristi.
Adam Carlson retweeted
Of all the numbers in the latest national NBC News poll, these might be the most stunning -- on how divided voters are by where they get their news. (Respondents got to pick up to 3 answers on their political news consumption) nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
44K Followers 2K Following @cal alum + lecturer; AI/software engineer; elections + modeling @SplitTicket_. Chelsea ⚽, Sharks 🏒, Giants ⚾. ✉️ [email protected]. views my own. he/him
Thorongil @Thorongil16
18K Followers 3K Following partner and data director @splitticket_. boola boola @yale. the dream shall never die. counsellor to good causes near and far. planning special operations.
Galen Metzger🪬📈.. @GalenMetzger1
16K Followers 341 Following Special elections enjoyer. 22. 2022 oracle. Anti-populist. National Security Lib. Fuck Alfalfa. Pangloss was right. ↙️↙️↙️
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
Tom Bonier @tbonier
96K Followers 991 Following CEO @thetara_group, Sr Advisor @TargetSmart, former @HowardU, @claritycampaign, @ncec1948, @SEIULocal500. DM inquiries
Harrison Lavelle @HWLavelleMaps
7K Followers 2K Following @SplitTicket_ likes & reposts ≠ endorsements | views my own | views of my colleagues are not mine
New York Times Pitchb.. @DougJBalloon
264K Followers 4K Following Parody. The really well-trained dog is the one that turns his somersault when there is no whip. merch: https://t.co/3bxNPhdkPL
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 528 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Drew Savicki @DrewSav
41K Followers 6K Following Politics, elections, stuff. CT-IL-NC. Bad speller. KISS fan, all around pop culture guy. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutistic🧙♂️🗺️ He/Him
Sage of Time🇵🇷 @SageOfTime1
2K Followers 627 Following Mapmaker/Political Analyst, NJ/PR, BernieSandersStan SantiagoIglesiasStan, Tag Me: Maps! Maps on Website,🇵🇷🇺🇦#NewDealDem #PRPol
Kyle Kondik @kkondik
53K Followers 4K Following American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at https://t.co/vMxRSSZvVT
David Weigel @daveweigel
566K Followers 13K Following Covering politics for @semafor. Alum: @washingtonpost, @business, @slate. [email protected]. Buy my book: https://t.co/6sWfZ4MNgH
ET Californian 🌊�.. @ET_Californian
8K Followers 589 Following Native Middle Class Californian, Gavin Newsom Hater, pragmatic shitlib, elitist witch, working within the system, he/him 🥑🔰🏳️🌈🐵🚱
Manu Raju @mkraju
639K Followers 7K Following Chief Congressional Correspondent, CNN. Anchor, “Inside Politics Sunday with Manu Raju.” 8a/11aET Sunday. Die-hard Chicago sports fan. Wisconsin Badger for life
Naperville Politics G.. @NapervillePol
4K Followers 1K Following A guy from Naperville interested in politics. Lover of VPap, Racedep enthusiast. AKA the moderate wing of fascism
James Newton @JamesLNPol
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Jordan Weissmann @JHWeissmann
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Tanelom @tanelom59690
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Galen Bunting @inratsalley
998 Followers 2K Following MA from @okstate, postdoc @Northeastern, studying gender/war in Modernist lit. Words in @BlackWarriorRev @MinnesotaReview assistant editor @smokeandmold
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Thinderella Edwards (.. @TThindy
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James Veith @veith_james
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🌸ThatLiberalBitch�.. @ThatLibBitch
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charlie williams @pontific8
2K Followers 336 Following amiable dabbler. prof at bocconi university. strategy. execution. business. human rights. kids. outdoors. bocconi. milan. italy. europe.
Carlos Rodríguez Ló.. @caedrolo12
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Raghav Saboo @raghavsaboo
162 Followers 1K Following On a quest to learn more to do more. Ex-ChemEng Machine Learning Engineer at large.
Jesse Conrad @Jesse_Conrad
145 Followers 2K Following My life consists of coffee & politics 🏳️🌈 Now:Berger Hirschberg Strategies Prior:The Advance Group, Freedom House Reading, PA →Brooklyn, NY Views are mine
Dudley poston @dudleyposton
116 Followers 2K Following
Saha Guerrero @sahaguerrero
430 Followers 1K Following New Yorker + DC | President @NYUDems | Former @CMCarlinaRivera @SenSchumer @NYDems @KathyHochul @HSforBiden2020 | Views are my own
Chris Harris @ChrisHarrisKC
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Sarah Mou @sarahmou722
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david parks @davidpa91269279
274 Followers 72 Following
Mike Hague @mhague64
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Johnny's Fury @JohnnyHasanabi
3 Followers 126 Following
Browns22 @browns2211
2K Followers 5K Following Dogs teach us a very important lesson in life: the mailman is not to be trusted. Live every day like it’s Friday.
the john dobry group @johndobrygroup
806 Followers 3K Following Born and raised in MI, moved to NOLA '01. Det. fan #1 (fan of most all things MI/DET), saints/pels #2. Guitarist, educator, academic advisor. BM #IC MFA #TU
The Notorious S.E.B. @bigseb31213
908 Followers 1K Following bigseb31213 at M Don Hail Satan, but semi-ironically #wearenafo
Jake Nelson @JakeNelson
25 Followers 159 Following
Ryan M @ryan_metheny
191 Followers 2K Following Yimby shill and public transit enthusiast. Occasional military industrial complex opinion haver. Views expressed not those of my employer or my cat.
The Mac & Cheese Orca @maccat_orca
0 Followers 140 Following
Jacobson Law P.A. @JacobsonLawPA
493 Followers 5K Following South Florida litigation boutique dedicated to representing innocent investors and honest advisors in investment disputes.
AZ Native @JoesKnocking
384 Followers 450 Following Arizona native. FDR Capitalist. Both Israel and Palestine are extream religious regimes.
Anton Chigurh💙🇺.. @Anton_Chigurh_1
2K Followers 2K Following Texas born and raised, ♒️ Chicano, Lib, Pro-Democracy, Pro-Choice. #Resist, LGBTQI+ ally, 🌊, Fan of the 🏀SanAntonioSpurs🏈DallasCowboys
Reader @Reader06652014
0 Followers 304 Following
Rob maser @Robmaser175367
94 Followers 2K Following 65-year old Rob Maser, who is retired from Dawson Springs matched all white ball winning numbers giving few back to the society by paying credit cards bills
Henry @Henry3185453802
0 Followers 19 Following
scl @scl38382712
184 Followers 2K Following
Rob Wile @rjwile
9K Followers 10K Following husband to steph. father to freddie. breaking business reporter @nbcnews. get in touch: [email protected]
JM Mendez - 1UP Vault.. @jmmendez89
234 Followers 375 Following A gamer that manages the 1UP Vault Substack. Father, Husband, Christian, Fan many things, Loves the Video Game Industry. Be nice to all! 🇵🇷 🇺🇸
David Ossip @david_ossip
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Jake Morrison @reachfh
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Andrew @drewster53
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IBR @dd_shroud
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John Avlon @JohnAvlon
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Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
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Thorongil @Thorongil16
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Ethan C7 @ECaliberSeven
11K Followers 73 Following 23 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
Galen Metzger🪬📈.. @GalenMetzger1
16K Followers 341 Following Special elections enjoyer. 22. 2022 oracle. Anti-populist. National Security Lib. Fuck Alfalfa. Pangloss was right. ↙️↙️↙️
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
642K Followers 1K Following Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Max @maxtmcc
19K Followers 455 Following @SplitTicket_ | maps, data, and more | still an ardent supporter of long nebraska
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
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Tom Bonier @tbonier
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Special Puppy 🧦�.. @SpecialPuppy1
7K Followers 573 Following I’m not afraid of RUFFhousing.Bernie Sanders-Bill Clinton Democrat. Intriguing, Infuriating, and Completely Baffling. CEO,influencer, anti-masturbation activist
Taniel @Taniel
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b-boy bouiebaisse @jbouie
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Harrison Lavelle @HWLavelleMaps
7K Followers 2K Following @SplitTicket_ likes & reposts ≠ endorsements | views my own | views of my colleagues are not mine
New York Times Pitchb.. @DougJBalloon
264K Followers 4K Following Parody. The really well-trained dog is the one that turns his somersault when there is no whip. merch: https://t.co/3bxNPhdkPL
David Roberts @drvolts
207K Followers 4K Following I run a newsletter/podcast called Volts about clean energy & politics. Subscribe & join the community at https://t.co/mAVggtRfoE! (@volts.wtf on bsky, ahem.)
Clare Malone @ClareMalone
124K Followers 793 Following You can drag a horticulture but you can't make her think. Staff writer @NewYorker covering media and politics 📝[email protected] 📝
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 528 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Drew Savicki @DrewSav
41K Followers 6K Following Politics, elections, stuff. CT-IL-NC. Bad speller. KISS fan, all around pop culture guy. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutistic🧙♂️🗺️ He/Him
Tommy Vietor @TVietor08
567K Followers 3K Following Former Obama staffer turned podcast blah blah guy @ Crooked Media
Steven Porter @reporterporter
5K Followers 5K Following New Hampshire reporter for @BostonGlobe/@Globe_NH. Past: @usatodayopinion, @seacoastonline. Just assume we disagree. he/him
Typos of the New York.. @nyttypos
42K Followers 52 Following I am an appellate lawyer and persnickety dude. As a hobby, I correct typos in the Times, which no longer employs copy editors and consequently has tons of typos
Elmo @elmo
606K Followers 14 Following Elmo's Elmo! Elmo lives on Sesame Street and was told to tell you that Elmo is official! (account run with the help of Elmo’s mommy and daddy)
Dan Cluchey @dancluchey
3K Followers 925 Following Principal @FenwayStrat, former senior White House speechwriter to @POTUS, devoted Mainer, alleged lawyer, author of THE LIFE OF THE WORLD TO COME (St. Martin's)
Stack Data Strategy @StackStrat
1K Followers 20 Following Powered by opinion. Find the results of our latest US Presidential MRP here: https://t.co/0tMu8KDyiy
Bill McInturff @pollsterguy
2K Followers 125 Following Partner at Public Opinion Strategies, national survey firm. Help conduct The NBC News Poll. Happy Nationals fan post-World Series win, former youth coach.
Civiqs @Civiqs
8K Followers 865 Following Find out what Americans think. Survey results updated every day at https://t.co/83Q2Fw4ri0. Join the Civiqs research panel: https://t.co/82XCPvvPBx
Three Year Letterman @3YearLetterman
461K Followers 1K Following Youth Football Coaching Legend, Die-hard Georgia Fan, Three-Year High School Football Letterman, Showstopping Little League Umpire, Region Champion (3-way tie)
Simon D. Schuster @Simon_Schuster
4K Followers 2K Following Reporter @BridgeMichigan. Not a publisher. 📧: [email protected]
Tyler McBrien @TylerMcBrien
25K Followers 2K Following Managing Editor, @lawfare. Writing in @washingtonpost, @TheAtlantic, @Slate, @LAReviewofBooks, @ForeignPolicy, @MotherJones, and more.
Derek Thompson @DKThomp
202K Followers 2K Following Writer @TheAtlantic. "Plain English" podcast host @Ringer. Mondays on NPR's @hereandnow. Co-writing a book about abundance.
Jonathan Haidt @JonHaidt
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Katie Phang @KatiePhang
324K Followers 2K Following Host of The @katiephangshow on @MSNBC | Legal Contributor & Correspondent, @NBC & @MSNBC | RTs and ❤️ ≠ endorsements
Dan Rosenheck @DanRosenheck
7K Followers 1K Following Data, sports, wine @ The Economist & 1843. Ex-correspondent, BA/DF. AA PLT. Gramercy → Bloomsbury. Jumo. Rootless cosmopolitan. Jester of Tortuga
Ballotpedia @ballotpedia
74K Followers 6K Following The Encyclopedia of American Politics As a 501(c)3 nonprofit, we rely on your support to ensure that all voters have access to unbiased political information.
derek guy @dieworkwear
832K Followers 963 Following Menswear writer. Editor at @putthison. Creator of @RLGoesHard. Bylines at The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, Esquire, and Mr. Porter
Basil☀️🧦🧡 (.. @LinkofSunshine
20K Followers 1K Following bullshit femboy. 21 - the one good lib - New AND Old Amsterdam - LFGM ✡️ @linkbutalt Our most beautiful days: we haven't seen yet.
Ethan Jasny @EthanJasny
587 Followers 1K Following Harvard Youth Poll @HarvardIOP. Previously: @CookPolitical, Primaries Project @BrookingsGov. Thrower of stones @harvardcurling
Eric Cunningham @decunningham2
4K Followers 1K Following Founder/editor-in-chief @Elections_Daily. RT/follow =/ endorsement. DMs open. Email: [email protected]
Alex Cohen 🤠 @anothercohen
189K Followers 1K Following Having fun on the internet. Building something new. Side project: https://t.co/XmAstakS3p. Previously led consumer product @carbonhealth
Kristian Carranza @kristianfortx
3K Followers 2K Following San Antonio Southsider | Organizer 📢 | Democratic Nominee for House District 118, Democrats’ number one flip opportunity in the Texas House! #HD118
Katherine Koretski @kekoretski
2K Followers 4K Following Political Campaign Embed covering 2024 for @NBCNews 🦚
Tampa, FL 🌴 @azsunsoaker
256 Followers 84 Following #1 Blampa Believer and YIMBY | University of Arizona
Data Science Fact @DataSciFact
191K Followers 19 Following Daily data science tweets from @JohnDCook.
Domenico Montanaro @DomenicoNPR
109K Followers 4K Following NPR Sr Political Editor/Correspondent. NPR is a private, nonprofit w/ editorial independence and less than 1% funding from Corporation for Public Broadcasting
Brian Arbour @bkarbour
985 Followers 488 Following Associate Professor of Political Science. John Jay College, CUNY
Historic Vids @historyinmemes
5.3M Followers 210 Following Daily history lessons. Education through memes!
Juan Hinojos Zapien �.. @JuanHinojosAZ
3K Followers 1K Following Now: AZ Deputy Political Director @JoeBiden 🇺🇸| FMR: Policy @MayorGallego | Political @CaptMarkKelly 2020/2022 🚀 | Ni de aquí, ni de allá |🇲🇽🏳️🌈| ΣΛΒ
RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH
3K Followers 100 Following RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly.
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles
27K Followers 4K Following Midwest correspondent @TheEconomist. Before that, in London, Mumbai, Nairobi and DC. Author of Carmageddon: https://t.co/2jGfnn0t9x
Nandita Bose @nanditab1
17K Followers 5K Following White House Correspondent @Reuters. Facts not opinions. Dog mom. Previously in India/Chicago/NYC @NorthwesternU grad [email protected] DM for Whatsapp/Signal
Anat Shenker-Osorio �.. @anatosaurus
31K Followers 1K Following Researcher, message maker, campaign advisor. Host of Words To Win By: a podcast about progressive wins. @wordstowinby
J.L. Partners @JLPartnersPolls
6K Followers 61 Following Research. Insight. Strategy. We find out what and how people think, globally.
NYC Alt Side Parking @NYCASP
293K Followers 4 Following Posts twice daily & for emergency suspensions. Account automated, will not respond. Use Policy: https://t.co/gsR1VH3Jzp
POS @POStrategies
4K Followers 412 Following Public Opinion Strategies is a national political and public affairs research firm. Turning Questions Into Answers.
HammondDesignCo @HammondDesignCo
166 Followers 170 Following Hammond Design is a graphic design & marketing communications company in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Publication design, communications collateral, posters, exhibits
Maya Bodnick @MayaBodnick
1K Followers 744 Following Harvard '26, Nueva '22, columnist @thecrimson, Slow Boring researcher
🌻Maria I. Puerta R.. @Maripuerta
25K Followers 14K Following Proud immigrant • PoliSci Adj Prof • PhD in Cultural Studies • @UCarabobo • Democracy & Autocratization • She/Her/Ella • RT≠endorsement
Cygnal Polling & Anal.. @cygnal
3K Followers 1K Following Polling firm and pioneer of multi-mode research. We create intelligence for action by understanding opinions, hearts, and minds.
Anna Bower @AnnaBower
85K Followers 4K Following Legal Fellow & Courts Correspondent @lawfare. Detailed reporting and legal analysis of the 4 criminal cases against Trump. Contact: [email protected]
Jack Rack 🇺🇸 @jackisjake
1K Followers 781 Following resist lib, ardent believer of the Mandate of Heaven. #Biden2024
Grimlock'sLastNerve @HarrisH30894075
592 Followers 498 Following Democracy isn't dying, it's under attack. My fingers are genetically lazy so I apologize for my spelling. My opinions are worth 2 cents and not a penny more.
David Darmofal @david_darmofal
21K Followers 2K Following Political scientist. Political behavior + methods. Opinions are my own, not those of the University of South Carolina or its Political Science Department.
Nick Baumann @NickBaumann
26K Followers 9K Following Deputy Politics Editor at @WashingtonPost | Pats fan. Eagle Scout. Beer pong aficionado. | 202.630.2380 | Usual disclaimers
Scott Salmon @VoteSalmon
1K Followers 1K Following Law-talking guy. Strong proponent of the Third Amendment. Idiot Jets fan. He/Him.
@ijbailey @ijbailey
18K Followers 4K Following Husband. Black dad. Stutterer. Davidson College Professor of Practice. McClatchy News columnist. Harvard Nieman Fellow. Sweet tea drinker. CIDP survivor.
Rebecca Marques @_RebeccaMarques
4K Followers 2K Following #ReproVoter @ @reproforall. Board Chair - @TexasSignal. Views are my own. She/hers; @DollyParton & cheese enthusiast.
@admcrlsn CA45 is honestly one of the hardest seats to predict of all competitive seats. Of all demographics I really struggle to peg down how Asians will trend. Tran is also pretty sporadic. Kinda defaulted to Steel by 4 as average of 2020 & ‘22. waiting to see any polling and OS data
@admcrlsn Gah meant to say Margin is very much comparative
@admcrlsn Expected margin is very much competitive. I sorted seats into tiers of 7 (1-7 8-14 etc) then from there I kinda did it instinctually. Considered presumptive challenger strength 2022 house 2020 prez and likely trends in the seat. I tried to factor what parties were targeting
this is the best advertisement I’ve ever seen 😭😭 whoever made this deserves an award
I actually really do want to meet someone who voted biden in 2020 but says they're gonna vote trump in 2024
Cricket in heaven watching Kristi Noem have the VP nod taken from her:
Kristi Noem has ‘no shot’ as Trump’s VP pick after puppy-killing controversy: sources trib.al/AQWB1mu
Don’t often share much personal stuff but figured people would be interested in this. I work for an employee-owned tech company & this week I’m down in Tampa learning about everything employee-ownership, gathering new ideas, & engaging with other companies who are employee-owned
*taps on mic* The people we need to reach in this election have no fucking idea who James Carville is and the people whose job it is to reach those people are not taking their cues from James Carville. Please relax.
There is a markedly significant difference between '20 and '24 in terms of investment in offices and ground game on the part of PA Dems and that has to be factored into the equation. They trialed iterations of this over the last two cycles. This is essentially targeted warfare.
Exciting news! We're partnering with @PADems & @BidenHQ to open a coordinated campaign office in #BeaverCounty. You're invited to the kickoff at 10 am this Sunday, May 5th. mobilize.us/beavercountyde…
🧵According to @RacetotheWH, the national polling average is +0.3% R. A deficit of 4.8% from Biden’s 4.5% popular-vote win in 2020 With a 4.8% blue shift applied to each state polling average, it results in remarkably similar margins from 2020 in some states & the EC is 303-235
Dem oppo research guys getting ready to pivot from Noem to Burgum
NEW: Gov. Doug Burgum is moving up Trump’s VP ladder Trump likes his measured demeanor & gubernatorial experience and sees Burgum as reliable and low-drama — a safe choice who could attract moderate voters. w/ @juliegraceb axios.com/2024/04/28/tru…
Of all the numbers in the latest national NBC News poll, these might be the most stunning -- on how divided voters are by where they get their news. (Respondents got to pick up to 3 answers on their political news consumption) nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
People have asked why I'm bullish on GA vs other swing states despite the polls. Main reason is how Dem favorable the Atlanta media market is and how easy it is to campaign there: -3rd most college educated* -2nd most diverse* -Largest '16-20 swing* ->60% of state population*
If you told me 24 hours ago that I was even gonna hit 1000, I would've called you crazy. Thank you all so much for all the love and support yesterday ❤️
Guess what? I can change my mind! I take in other viewpoints and I assumed Fetterman would grow up. In reality he did not and dresses like a slob.
@Locati0ns Why is Hawaii in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean?
Only been in Tampa for 2 hours and already saw a commercial for Rick Scott screaming about Socialism....
Meet your newest @NJCollegeDems Executive Board Member: Me! Proud to be floor nominated and voted in to serve as Central Jersey Regional Chair. And yes, Central Jersey IS a real place!
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