Lenny Bronner @lennybronner
currently (elections + data) @washingtonpost. previously data @sidewireinc. originally 🇦🇹 washingtonpost.com/people/lenny-b… NYC Joined February 2009-
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one of these numbers of polls is not like the others
one of these numbers of polls is not like the others
Crystal Ball: @JMilesColeman dissects Biden's primary showing, and where he was relatively strong (and weak) by state -- centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wh…
Similarly to what some polls in the US show, this would be a huge political re-alignment among young voters in Germany
Similarly to what some polls in the US show, this would be a huge political re-alignment among young voters in Germany
Seems like a good time for this story again: 1 in 5 GOP primary voters keep bucking Trump. What does it mean? washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…
Leithammelstaat
Rare opportunity to work on the Washington Post's graphics team from (some places) in Europe! We are looking for a graphics reporter who works well independently, feels comfortable covering news and is a good collaborator. Any questions, please DM! washpost.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/washingtonpost…
Everyone who uses election data knows how incredibly frustrating it can be to track down and work with. @DaraGold5 (@WPElexInsights alum!!) on why that is: boltsmag.org/election-data-…
DATA PLZ!! boltsmag.org/election-data-…
Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered w/ @pbump washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…
🧵on a few interesting nuggets from our story this week on lessons from our 50K YouGov polling sample (economist.com/united-states/…): (1/x)
Republicans close gap with Democrats on party identification, @pewresearch survey finds washingtonpost.com/elections/2024…
It's a point I made before, but we should expect this kind of variance (especially in crosstabs). The subgroup sample size here is like ~300 (likely less), so we'd expect at least 5% MoE. Even without any movement (and non-sampling error) these differences would be explainable
It's a point I made before, but we should expect this kind of variance (especially in crosstabs). The subgroup sample size here is like ~300 (likely less), so we'd expect at least 5% MoE. Even without any movement (and non-sampling error) these differences would be explainable
1 in 5 GOP primary voters keep bucking Trump. What does it mean? w/ @AaronBlake and @hannahdormido washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…
electoral college split and and the election being sent to the House ranks alongside of contested convention as something that political journalists get way too excited about
electoral college split and and the election being sent to the House ranks alongside of contested convention as something that political journalists get way too excited about
Graph that shows how Miami-Dade and Orange County Florida differ. Hispanic registration is negatively correlated with Republican registration in Orange and positively correlated in Miami-Dade.
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 526 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
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61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
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respond in .gif @awoman_scorned
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987 Followers 3K Following Owner @goodkiwillc. I build tech for Democrats. Formerly @political_data, @dccc ‘20 and @bluestate. My dog thinks I’m great.
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trailbandit @jwmm_tintin
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Reduced to Writing @Reduced2Writing
45 Followers 189 Following the clerk will read the bill | the clerk will ring the bell
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris
118K Followers 526 Following editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them https://t.co/c8nxYdnpks.
Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17
44K Followers 2K Following @cal alum + lecturer; AI/software engineer; elections + modeling @SplitTicket_. Chelsea ⚽, Sharks 🏒, Giants ⚾. ✉️ [email protected]. views my own. he/him
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61K Followers 3K Following Senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Don't call me Nate!
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40K Followers 6K Following Politics, elections, stuff. CT-IL-NC. Bad speller. KISS fan, all around pop culture guy. Be prepared for bad food takes #ActuallyAutistic🧙♂️🗺️ He/Him
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
472K Followers 1K Following chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
177K Followers 2K Following CEO/Editor, The Nevada Independent. Your State. Your News. Your Voice. [email protected] #WeMatter
Jacob Rubashkin @JacobRubashkin
29K Followers 2K Following deputy editor @InsideElections / formerly @NBCNews, @cnn, @cornellsun / Beltway born and raised / say hello: [email protected]
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
66K Followers 2K Following Polling editor @CNN; keeping (cross)tabs on public opinion and the news. LA native, formerly @HuffPost. I like puns.
Ryan Brune @BruneElections
20K Followers 583 Following Politics and Mapping Fanatic. Econ, Math, and Statistics. Go Bucks. Nonpartisan analysis, though will occasionally offer (liberal) personal opinions.
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
54K Followers 5K Following Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball. 'A political Dora the Explorer.' @LSU grad. Author, America Votes 35. He/him
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
65K Followers 930 Following
Michael McDonald @ElectProject
90K Followers 588 Following Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections.
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53K Followers 4K Following American elections analyst; Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball at UVA Center for Politics. Sign up free at https://t.co/vMxRSSZvVT
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22K Followers 2K Following 22 (he/him/his) was: @GeorgiaStateU, @decisiondeskhq now: @GeorgiaSouthern, Peach State Politics
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47K Followers 3K Following Politics reporter @19thnews. Past: @businessinsider. Bad speller. MA native. Send tips/say hi [email protected]. IG: https://t.co/VWIeFbLDGK
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51K Followers 1K Following Host and producer of the @FiveThirtyEight politics podcast for @ABC News. Previously @WPR, @WNYC Off-duty Galen: https://t.co/Qmm8nl11fT
Xenocrypt @xenocryptsite
10K Followers 6K Following Politics, math, etc. GitHub pages page: https://t.co/fBpQtqLvYl Medium: https://t.co/1gnQzJWJQ5 Blogspot: https://t.co/ACCsP5BP6R @[email protected]
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16K Followers 6K Following Chief Technology Officer @POLITICO — ❦ #TheSqueezle ❦ #TheGiblette ❦ @beckybowers
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7K Followers 573 Following I’m not afraid of RUFFhousing.Bernie Sanders-Bill Clinton Democrat. Intriguing, Infuriating, and Completely Baffling. CEO,influencer, anti-masturbation activist
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2K Followers 4K Following PolSci Student @IPZ_ch @Kieluni | RA @kielinstitute & @CPIG_CAU | Political Geography & Inequality. Co-Host "Political Science? No Problem et al."
OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical
930K Followers 800 Following OSINT guy, PAI enjoyer, journalist @hntrbrkmedia, my views/freezing cold takes are my own. Standard spiel about not endorsing retweets, likes, and comments.
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙs�.. @CalibreObscura
196K Followers 699 Following Was a Arms Research & Occasional Effortposter. Interested in MENA/Asia NSAGs
hodel in the streets,.. @mrotzie
24K Followers 7K Following Former Jewish social justice staff and co-host of the @wrongaboutevery podcast. These are my personal tweets. Dance 10, Looks 3.
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652 Followers 1K Following 📊 📈 data journalism @zeitonline, before: @faznet she/her
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565K Followers 1K Following Investigative journalist (Spiegel, The Insider, ex-Bellingcat), radio investor and hobby coder. Immediate blocks for whataboutism.
Dimitri Sotis @dimitriWTOP
7K Followers 7K Following WTOP Anchor - please send news tips to [email protected] he/him
Daniel Cox @dcoxpolls
4K Followers 787 Following Pollster, Director of @amersurveyctr @AEI; Research on Gen Z, religion, friendship, loneliness. Writing https://t.co/x818PJ7eWQ
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4K Followers 829 Following Managing Director @Abrahamcenter Fmr ED @ALLMEP Term Member @cfr_org RT not endorsements, views are mine alone. 🐻⬇️ CPS Parent.
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5K Followers 2K Following Diplomatic/Christian Affairs Correspondent @TimesofIsrael✏️🎤 PHD cndt @KingsCollegeLon war studies👨🏽🎓Aspiring Gaelic speaker🏴 I’d rather be 🎣
kleinman.bsky.social @BobbyBigWheel
53K Followers 679 Following Dir. of Research @StatesProjectUS, all views my own, Likes & RTs =/= endorsements, the tweet you're mad at was a joke, check me out on bsky.
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20K Followers 5K Following Washington Post national political breaking news editor. St. Louis native. Stanford grad. Fan of the Cardinals and Cardinal.
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2K Followers 3K Following Have you heard the Good News of Bayes' Theorem? #rstats, he/him, https://t.co/2n4ybynGRS
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40K Followers 1K Following Proud American from Gaza City; pro-Palestine, pro-peace, anti-Hamas; lost 31 family members in the war; Nonresident Senior Fellow @ACMideast; views are my own
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3K Followers 877 Following Mets fan in the BX. Voting rights @ NYCLU. Adjunct Prof. at Fordham Law. Really just here for Knicks basketball and dogs. He/him.
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744 Followers 99 Following kpop and elections. haphazardly trying to create election models. contact: [email protected]. he/him
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849 Followers 650 Following Research Reporting Fellow at @WashingtonPost. Fellow at @IRWorkshop. @AmericanU alum. Torontonian-turned-Washingtonian.
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6K Followers 1K Following Political scientist @Penn. Prof: https://t.co/URr9ybQSEQ 538: https://t.co/Hw9WeVU85Z #polisciresearch
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5K Followers 4K Following Data/investigative journalism @Stanford, former data innovation editor @seattletimes, Founder @biglocalnews, MT native @[email protected] on Mastodon
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276K Followers 992 Following Led a couple of Stripe's most successful products from their early days. Led & grew several products at Twitter, Google, Yahoo. Now advising, coaching, teaching
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199K Followers 2K Following Defence editor at @TheEconomist, Visiting fellow at @warstudies King's College London.
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18K Followers 3K Following partner and data director @splitticket_. boola boola @yale. the dream shall never die. counsellor to good causes near and far. planning special operations.
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Ezzedine C. Fishere �.. @FishereEzzedine
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insane moments in bri.. @PoliticsMoments
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1K Followers 637 Following Historian | research on Antisemitism, history of Nazism & Voelkish ideology | board @_LICRA_ Austria | part of https://t.co/q9iCNO14Ds
Good morning! 538 is out today with averages of presidential general election polls. The national polls are currently about tied, with a slight Trump lead that's within our uncertainty interval. Trump is tied or leads in all battleground states. Story: abcnews.go.com/538/trump-lead…
As this tweet has randomly exploded over the last two days I kindly ask everyone to chill a bit from now on because I have work to do 🤝🙏🥲
I was bored on the train, so I calculated how every German election since 1953 would have turned out in a US-style electoral system. Parties would win all the electors in a state by relative majority & win the entire election with a majority of electors in an electoral college.🧵
"The data is 1000x more important than the model" is a conclusion that I would expect a college junior to arrive at. It is ridiculous to think this is some big discovery if you're a leading machine learning engineer at the world's biggest AI company.
The dataset is everything. Great read: nonint.com/2023/06/10/the…
Welcomed a new eight pound, two ounce addition into our family last week. Her name is Maya and we love her tremendously. Talia is thrilled to be a big sister.
A Gaussian MLE with a Hobbes-Style model fit (clipped shoulders, cuff links) shows that the modal election case is pretty bleak! The median voter is even *less* like Democrats than the Republicans think, because their college-educated staffers are far too ideologically polarized.
I was bored on the train, so I calculated how every German election since 1953 would have turned out in a US-style electoral system. Parties would win all the electors in a state by relative majority & win the entire election with a majority of electors in an electoral college.🧵
Don’t do like these early candidates and send the links to your portfolios in the jobs portal washpost.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/washingt…
— Presidential model launching in June! — Polling averages free, probabilities & additional detail for paid subscribers. — Updates initially 1x/week, then 2x-3x after Labor Day. Trying to manage my workload and put things in proper context. — More here: natesilver.net/p/announcing-2…
I'd let this slip down my to-read list for years (can a book about talking rabbits really be that interesting) till this tweet nudged me to at last pick it up It is wonderful. A novel that feels complete
Finishing Adams’s *Watership Down* tonight. A remarkable book, so good I didn’t want it to end:
Tired: constant marginal effects Wired: maximum marginal effects at p=0.5 Inspired: add a parameter for where marginal effects are maximized Are they not teaching the kids about scobit these days? Embarrassing
I will miss my colleagues at @washingtonpost and am thankful to the news eng / elections team for supporting my development and encouraging open source projects over the past three years. Here's to finding future avenues for collaboration!
Some news: today is my first day as a senior machine learning engineer at @nytimes! I'll be working on the new AI Initiatives team in the newsroom to prototype tools, shape standards, and aid reporting. Can't wait to get started!
The US organizes voting data on a bunch of random local spreadsheets & PDFs, many aren't even online. This makes answering basic questions about voting rights a herculean task of data compiling, cleaning. There has to be a better way, writes @DaraGold5: boltsmag.org/election-data-…
Very grateful for @vest_team, @MITelectionlab, Redistricting Data Hub, and many others that have done amazing work to assemble and promulgate precinct level election results.
Agree 100% that election results are a basic building block of democracy. Crazy that this data is not assembled by state and federal governments and made publicly available.
The US organizes voting data on a bunch of random local spreadsheets & PDFs, many aren't even online. This makes answering basic questions about voting rights a herculean task of data compiling, cleaning. There has to be a better way, writes @DaraGold5: boltsmag.org/election-data-…
A pretty substantial amount of time on my voting/democracy-focused research team gets taken up by us searching for data that you would almost certainly think exists publicly but it turns out frequently does not (or is very, very hard to find).
The US organizes voting data on a bunch of random local spreadsheets & PDFs, many aren't even online. This makes answering basic questions about voting rights a herculean task of data compiling, cleaning. There has to be a better way, writes @DaraGold5: boltsmag.org/election-data-…
“The Trump Trials: Sidebar” vodcast launches on Monday. @libcasey , @Rho_Co and @jameshohmann will break down the biggest moments from Trump’s first criminal trial in New York. Stay tuned for new episodes every Thursday on YouTube, Spotify and Apple. youtube.com/watch?v=jpg-vK…
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