Michael McDonald @ElectProject
Professor at the University of Florida who specializes in American elections. electproject.org Gainesville, FL Joined September 2012-
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Dogs have evolved a survival instinct to detect her scent
Dogs have evolved a survival instinct to detect her scent
Police make first arrests in Florida of pro-Palestinian protesters at two university campuses, including UF @vivienneserret @FreshTakeFla @SunSentinel sun-sentinel.com/2024/04/29/pol…
This wouldn't have happened if Biden hadn't broken his foot that then affected his gait
Very low energy Trump response
Turnout will be especially important this November...and it matters to how pollsters model turnout in their likely voter models. The higher the projected turnout, the better Trump may do in the poll
How Peter Bernegger, a Wisconsin "election integrity" activist, has drained election offices of already-limited resources and stoked mistrust in the electoral process in his years-long quest to uncover election fraud theguardian.com/us-news/2024/a…
Ask an abortion question and Republicans will do the same as Youngkin does here about the terrible inflationary pressures of the 10% tariff Trump is saying he will implement. They have no core value other than winning power
Ask an abortion question and Republicans will do the same as Youngkin does here about the terrible inflationary pressures of the 10% tariff Trump is saying he will implement. They have no core value other than winning power
I literally LOL’ed seeing the CBS poll after seeing CNN. And they say the Sunday comic strip is dying off
I literally LOL’ed seeing the CBS poll after seeing CNN. And they say the Sunday comic strip is dying off
Don’t know why we are all shocked Barr has no core principle other than wielding power when he’s shown us as much time and time again
Don’t know why we are all shocked Barr has no core principle other than wielding power when he’s shown us as much time and time again
For those in the Houston area, a treat. We are collecting local election data for @HoustonEndowmnt which we are uploading to the @ufelectionlab archive election.lab.ufl.edu/data-archive/t…
The University of Florida (UF) is threatening students with suspension and banishment from campus for three years.
Tom Bonier @tbonier
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93 Followers 4 Following @lbronner and @jeremybowers bring you insights with data freshly baked from @wapoengineering.@ElectProject Contributing a large chunk of his billions to the Trump legal defense fund will excuse him from puppy shooting duties.
@ElectProject Is a giant Marge-mallow about to walk around the corner?
Mom says flattery will get you everywhere.
@ElectProject @tbonier Will take it @ElectProject. But to echo @tbonier did any one ever argue or believe that Trump was a lock? Seems a bit much......
@ElectProject 30-26 Dem topline unweighted and 31-27 Dem topline weighted it seems so really similar
Of possible interest: @NateSilver538 @gelliottmorris @lxeagle17 @leedrutman @Redistrict @LoganR2WH @RyanDEnos @johnmsides @rnishimura @smfrogers @bradwascher @GalenMetzger1 @electionclark @ElectProject @vavreck @amandacox @sahilchinoy @admcrlson @CharlieCookDC @lennybronner 16/17
@MmeDefargeKnits @ElectProject Of course, the point is that this is just one more poll showing the same gap between registered voter samples and likely voters.
@ElectProject Quick, run out and buy a diesel-powered birthbath!
@ElectProject @gelliottmorris @DougJBalloon Agreed, after 2022 I stopped using them as much as a source given the adjustment led them completely astray. My favorite was the unweighted high quality congressional ballot aggregator @SplitTicket_ did. Hopefully they are planning something similar this cycle for the horse race
@Ken_Kiyama1 @ElectProject OK, I *think* this should make everything crystal clear with absolutely no confusion whatsoever...
It's the end of an era: @DavidLauter is leaving @latimes later in 24 after 40 yrs of explaining national politics to SoCal readers w/wit, insight & style. We covered prez campaigns & big Congressional fights & there was no one I'd rather be in the trenches with. He'll be missed
@ElectProject @mjs_DC They’re mentioned by themselves several times but also as a reason mortgage payments are rising.
@ElectProject No fooling, I will be one of the very first voters nationally to vote for President Biden's reelection in the 2024 general election, just as I was one of the very first voters (through MN early voting) to vote for him in the 2024 primary (19 January 2024).
@ElectProject @kkondik Slightly different group - but here is the undecided voters and their most important issue in the Emerson polling. The sample is big enough to allow for some conclusions. Crime is more important than Immigration, and healthcare is second. The D answer on crime is guns.
@ElectProject It’s big, as noted elsewhere. CI extends to about 0.5 either way. Separately I kinda thought that people would take the 0.1 point effect as a sign of Kennedy running have a minimal (but potentially consequential) impact. Apparently most people only read the first sentence
@ElectProject That's right. There are these OTHER Black voters out there, and they didn't vote in '20, '22, or the primary this year but they looooove Trump and just you wait and see.
@ElectProject NY Times has you covered; they didn’t skip a beat! x.com/jamisonfoser/s…
I cannot emphasize strongly enough how *stupid* the New York Times debate analysis is. It dings Biden for failing to "quell the concerns" *of his political opponents.* *these aren't "concerns," they are campaign attacks.*