大椿 @SpringNameless
Hedge Fund Joined July 2017-
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想要读懂A股的流动性，必须先读懂生活。当分析师盯着K线高谈阔论时，外卖骑手在暴雨中护住餐盒的佝偻背影、农民工被烈日灼烧仍紧握扳手、写字楼深夜不灭的电脑屏幕映出的疲惫面容，这些才是当下A股真正的基本面。
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不杀跌，恐惧无休止； 不偷涨，强势如潮涨退； 不信谣，消息如空中浮尘； 不贪酒，终将醒来于亏损； 不贪欢，行情如花绽放瞬间； 不贪眠，时局变幻无常； 不纵欲，看盘了无生趣。 即见未来，为何不Buy？
大椿 retweeted
你看央屎有多少年没有报道伊拉克了?
大椿 retweeted
如果交易的执行力 跟不上自己的认知 认知就是一种精神内耗 执行力是离钱最近的一种能力
大椿 retweeted
收益率曲线已倒挂超过500天。自1920年以来，这种情况只发生过3次：2008年；1929年；1974年，这三次的市场跌幅均超过50%。…
大椿 retweeted
今天万科举报信出圈，尚未删除，很耐人寻味，内容本身没有太让人意外，但考虑很多人对万科没那么了解，我梳理了一些我的认知，让大家知道万科何至于此，主要就是几点： 1. 万科国企身份使得向管理层追责太容易；2. 万科20-21投资重大失误；3. 万科输送利益确实严重每年百亿；4. 保万科不等于保管理层。
险资着急，这非标债就跟SVB的AT1一样，当年应该搞这种监管的，地产版本的Basel III监管。
综合来看，经济思路、对形势和环境的认识没有发生变化，所以短期不仅两会没有加码，到 4 月份政治局会议也未必会有强有力的、千亿万亿级别的增量资金来提振经济。目程，如果发生意外情况，不排除上调赤字、大幅降息、增发国 债或者地产政策等被倒逼出来的可能性。目前至少一个季度来看概率不大。
大椿 retweeted
#如何全方位的看穿人性？ 一、处世 1，要懂得扮猪吃老虎，平时不要显摆自己的聪明。 2，最高级的拿捏，是不在意。 3，你在意了谁的想法，你就成了谁的奴隶。 4，没有人能够伤害你，除非你同意。 5，时机未到，该当孙子就当孙子，时机成熟，出手狠斩草除根。 6，敷衍小人，而不是和小人绝交。…
大椿 retweeted
刘晨明，比我大四五届，校友。 如果当时选择了这条路，可能也是一个好的分析师吧，不过可能我永远也感受不到交易的真谛了。
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