Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe Sounds great. Didn't intend to be mean, but words like transitory inflation have a set meaning and I cannot stand when someone is potentially denying reality.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe Before I go further, is this whimsical banter or do you still think it was correct to call it transitory or 'temporary'. Because at 33 it would once again be the 4th longest period of consistent elevated inflation. 2.5% of the dateset (1914 start). Not short. Not transitory.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe From where I sit, this changes absolutely nothing and your argument that was longer than expected, but still 'short' holds no water and frankly feels like gaslighting to try and pretend you were right.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe 1) This is public data so you could do some lifting with me 2) 26 months, then a dip under in June 2023 then above for 6 more months. Has been below 3% since January. 3) This shifts the position from 4th longest period historically to 5th behind March 1940 to August 1942

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe I still maintain that only following a 12 month moving benchmark is insufficient for understanding inflation. I was just applying your interpretation of 'short' and the first definition to the entire data set to show your latest argument was incorrect. It's okay to be wrong.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe In fact that's the fourth longest period in recorded history. 1) 247 months from May 1971 to December 1991 2) 66 months from May 1965 to November 1970 3) 63 months from November 1915 to January 1921 Following your logic, all inflation outside of the three periods is transitory

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe You seem very pleasant, so I feel bad doing this. I don't need you to admit you're wrong. However, if you keep trying to claim you're right, I will have to continue pointing things out. Also, it is fine to be wrong. I'm wrong all the time. It helps us learn.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe That being said I had to stay late at work and my wife and adorable puppy will be getting the remainder of my attention.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe Saying that it was not transitory or even 'temporary' (which honestly feels like a bit of a dishonest retreat) is like if you had a house that was with $100 that burned down three years ago and the residual land value is $10. Now the land is worth $30.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe Headline numbers based on a 12 month moving average have little bearing on this. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but I can't pretend that facts/math/technical terms are subjective. The impact will be reduced by years of low inflation or a deflationary event that isn't transitory.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe Based on the clear definitions, my original point stands - the three year annualized inflation is way higher than the historical averages. To have been transitory or 'temporary', it had to have returned to the average. The Bank of Canada agreed in their June 2022 comments.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe Saying the damage from the fire was transitory or temporary because the home wasn't on fire in the past year or because the land value has now tripled is just ignoring the base value. Your argument that inflation is no longer surging so it was transitory is equivalent.

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Stephen Pariser @StephenPariser

2 years ago

@InvestorsFriend @trevortombe To clarify, this isn't a joke that is going over my head? Plus, you are arguing that the post-2020 inflation was transitory?