Survation. @Survation
Insightful, selected, trusted. Waiting for Survation? - we can help, find out more: https://t.co/nw1PTftwM5 survation.com London Joined May 2009-
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How much can tomorrow’s elections tell us about the national picture? @JackSurvation looks into the issues driving Labour’s polling lead. survation.com/what-the-local…
New ward level voter ID MRP in London shows considerable variation within Boroughs e.g., in Tower Hamlets: Bow West - 8.1% Bethnal Green - 3.3% Mile End - 7.2%
New ward level voter ID MRP in London shows considerable variation within Boroughs e.g., in Tower Hamlets: Bow West - 8.1% Bethnal Green - 3.3% Mile End - 7.2% https://t.co/sTmBJ39SaV
Our polling for @We_OwnIt found considerable support for public ownership of the railways.
The Government is running out of time to fulfil its promise to renters. If it fails to impose a proper, immediate ban on no-fault eviction a new @Survation poll for @38degrees shows that voters will see it for what it is: a broken promise. inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
New blog post: Why are MRP estimates so variable when the uniform national swing is so predictable? chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/changing… tl;dr MRP doesn't look like uniform national swing right now but will closer to the election; campaigning brings things into line w/ UNS (cc @Survation)
“The Government should put economics before politics." Our @mhilton73 spoke with @RachaelBurford about what today's rise in the salary threshold for skilled worker visas means for firms. Our new @Survation stats show half are struggling to recruit ⬇ businessldn.co.uk/news-publicati…
“The Government should put economics before politics." Our @mhilton73 spoke with @RachaelBurford about what today's rise in the salary threshold for skilled worker visas means for firms. Our new @Survation stats show half are struggling to recruit ⬇ businessldn.co.uk/news-publicati…
Key point here is that there are bound to be some outliers but the main benefit of MRP is to get constituency level estimates (for all constituencies) with significantly lower sample sizes than individual seat polls. Example - Godalming and Ash: Phone Poll vs MRP
Key point here is that there are bound to be some outliers but the main benefit of MRP is to get constituency level estimates (for all constituencies) with significantly lower sample sizes than individual seat polls. Example - Godalming and Ash: Phone Poll vs MRP https://t.co/XgvXrBgHOA
The full details of our new MRP polling for @BestForBritain are available at the following link: bestforbritain.org/spring-2024-po…
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424 Followers 326 Following saw the trinity play in 66 & fell in love- “legacy” stretford ender no more - enjoy travel, art, pots, history, music, gardening, the sea, sharing food & wine5% of RVs in London don't have valid photo ID. Question is how many will show up (or would have shown up) to vote on Thursday. It's likely to be much lower than 5% among this group, but it won't be zero...
New: 5% of registered voters in London lack a valid form of photo ID Ward level estimates show that this the highest in Becontree - 11% (Barking and Dagenham) and lowest in Bloomsbury - 0.5% (Camden).
New ward level voter ID MRP in London shows considerable variation within Boroughs e.g., in Tower Hamlets: Bow West - 8.1% Bethnal Green - 3.3% Mile End - 7.2%
New: 5% of registered voters in London lack a valid form of photo ID Ward level estimates show that this the highest in Becontree - 11% (Barking and Dagenham) and lowest in Bloomsbury - 0.5% (Camden).
@MattSingh_ @chrishanretty @Survation Adding in constituency-level reversion as well as DK-reversion would create a pretty heavy status quo bias?
👇👇👇
New blog post: Why are MRP estimates so variable when the uniform national swing is so predictable? chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/changing… tl;dr MRP doesn't look like uniform national swing right now but will closer to the election; campaigning brings things into line w/ UNS (cc @Survation)
New blog post: Why are MRP estimates so variable when the uniform national swing is so predictable? chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/changing… tl;dr MRP doesn't look like uniform national swing right now but will closer to the election; campaigning brings things into line w/ UNS (cc @Survation)
“The Government should put economics before politics." Our @mhilton73 spoke with @RachaelBurford about what today's rise in the salary threshold for skilled worker visas means for firms. Our new @Survation stats show half are struggling to recruit ⬇ businessldn.co.uk/news-publicati…
Foreign worker visa clampdown 'making it harder for London businesses' as wage thresholds rise this week standard.co.uk/news/politics/…
@livvyjohn @scotfax @Survation @BestForBritain 13 of those are with margin < 5%, and in the probabilities tab, only 20 SNP wins are with chances higher than 3 in 4, so the difference between 40 and 20-25 seats is very small. 2014 "No" voters being largely split between Lab/Con contributes to that
Key point here is that there are bound to be some outliers but the main benefit of MRP is to get constituency level estimates (for all constituencies) with significantly lower sample sizes than individual seat polls. Example - Godalming and Ash: Phone Poll vs MRP
Is the Conservative Party facing its worst defeat in history? @VasilSurvation breaks down what our latest MRP analysis for @BestForBritain does and doesn’t tell us in this article: survation.com/what-we-can-le…
We wait for Survation. 🌹
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. Labour’s lead rises to 19 points as the Conservatives record their lowest vote share since 12th February 2023. LAB 45 (+1) CON 26 (-3) LD 11 (+2) GRN 3 (-) RFM 8 (+1) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 4 (-) F/w 11th -14th March. Changes vs. 16th February 2024.
This is why we wait for Survation
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. Labour’s lead rises to 19 points as the Conservatives record their lowest vote share since 12th February 2023. LAB 45 (+1) CON 26 (-3) LD 11 (+2) GRN 3 (-) RFM 8 (+1) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 4 (-) F/w 11th -14th March. Changes vs. 16th February 2024.
@electpoliticsuk @Survation We waited for Survation and Survation delivered
If you were waiting for Survation, it's a 19-point Labour lead
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention. Labour’s lead rises to 19 points as the Conservatives record their lowest vote share since 12th February 2023. LAB 45 (+1) CON 26 (-3) LD 11 (+2) GRN 3 (-) RFM 8 (+1) SNP 2 (-1) OTH 4 (-) F/w 11th -14th March. Changes vs. 16th February 2024.
@ElectionMapsUK @Survation This is why we wait for Survation 💪🏻
The biggest (pleasant) surprise in Rochdale last night was just how few people voted for the ex Labour Candidate recorded engaging in conspiracy theories. Many otherwise regular Labour voters that did turn out voted for Independent candidates, generally campaigning on sensible…
The Rochdale by-election is now essentially now Labour’s postal votes vs the field. The “not Galloway” vote will now be split. Could not be better set-up for The Worker’s Party leader…
I made a dashboard to present some of our latest MRP estimates, feel free to explore 👇
🚨Dashboard Klaxon🧵 We worked with our partners at Lodestone Communications to build a GE 2024 dashboard, which has some cool features. The initial focus is on Labour vs Conservative battles, but there's MRP data and projections for all seats in GB: lodestonecommunications.com/election-hub
@DamianSurvation Can you do anything similar with Kingswood and/or Rochdale?
NEW: Professor Jane Green is the new President of the British Polling Council britishpollingcouncil.org/new-president-…
We carried out a similar exercise last year (on new boundaries) and found very similar results. (this is for the new seat - Wellingborough and Rushden)
@ElectionMapsUK @Survation Any other leader would be 20 points ahead.