Texas Signals @TXSignals

Texas splits on this one. Adjusting for population growth since 2019, Zillow for-sale inventory in August was: Above 2019: Hidalgo +37%, Travis +28%, Galveston +22%, Bexar +10% Below 2019: Tarrant −18%, Collin −18%, Fort Bend −14%, Denton −9%

Lance Lambert @NewsLambert

15 hours ago

🟩 Green = Housing market inventory is ABOVE its population-adjusted level in pre-pandemic 2018-19 🟫 Brown = Housing market inventory is BELOW its population-adjusted level in pre-pandemic 2018-19 Going forward, @ResiClub_HQ will account for pop change when doing this cut

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Texas cities' October sales tax checks: +11.3% vs a year ago (Comptroller). Strip out one-time swings like Round Rock's ($9.5M to $32.8M) and it's about +8%. Our odds for these checks, frozen in September: we expected about 163 of 691 cities to come in below last year. 166 did.

New October high for the Texas grid: ERCOT demand averaged 76.5 GW in the hour ending 5 PM today, about 0.8% above the previous October record of 75.9 GW (October 2025). October peak demand is up 23% since 2017. Source: ERCOT (live data; final numbers can shift slightly)

Which Texas school districts lost the most students this fall? Houston ISD −7,915 Dallas ISD −5,494 Aldine ISD −4,258 Cy-Fair ISD −3,230 Plano ISD −2,633 Growing: Lamar CISD +2,001 · Prosper +2,000 · Forney +1,130 Source: TEA

Electricity use in ERCOT's West zone (Abilene, San Angelo) jumped 19% in the past year, the fastest in Texas. It's home to big new data center campuses. Our forecast for the next 12 months: West +9.4% Far West (Permian) +5.4% All of ERCOT +3.6% ⚡

🎲 The Odds: which Texas counties lost people from July 2025 to July 2026? King 96% · Kenedy 84% · Kent 83% · McMullen 81% Harris 5% · Collin 5% · Montgomery 6% We expect about 97 of 254 counties to shrink. The Census Bureau answers in March.

Texas factories are heating up. 🏭 Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index: August +11.6 September +9.8 First back-to-back readings this strong since late 2021. The production index hit +29.5 in September.

🔥 Bold Prediction of the Day Winkler County is done falling. Local spending fell 12.4% over the last 12 months. Our model says it flips: +6.5% over the next 12. Model odds it ends up positive: 94%. Graded publicly in Oct 2027. #Texas #Permian

Texas apartment building is cooling: 58,700 units permitted in 2+ unit buildings over the past 12 months, down 14%. Travis 7,342 (−28%) Collin 5,755 (−20%) Harris 12,643 (+13%) Brazos 2,069 (4x a year ago) Source: Census building permits

Where new business applications grow fastest this year (big counties): Bexar +6.8% · Fort Bend +6.4% · Collin +6.2% Williamson +5.9% · Harris +5.3% · Dallas +5.3% Travis: +0.2%, after +15% last year. Texas overall: +4.2%.

🎲 The Odds: will unemployment this February be at least half a point higher than a year earlier? Travis 18% · Bexar 16% · Dallas 14% Harris 12% · El Paso 12% Big metros: unlikely. Rural Menard, Loving and Donley counties: 43-51%. Graded in April from BLS data.

Our 12-month home value forecast (Zillow) for Texas' big counties: Collin −3.0% · Travis −2.8% · Denton −2.7% Williamson −2.3% · Harris −1.9% · Dallas −1.5% El Paso +0.4% Our model beat "no change" by 26% in testing.

🔥 Bold Prediction of the Day Ellis County is about to leave Texas in the dust. Ellis County spending, next 3 months: +11.5% forecast vs +7.9% for Texas. Model odds it clears +10%: 61%. Graded publicly in Jan 2027. #Texas #EllisCounty

Texas registered $73.7B of $100M+ construction projects in January-September, almost double the same months of 2025 ($39B). The biggest are rural data centers: Childress Co. $7.2B · Kent Co. $4.8B Caldwell Co. $2.8B · Dickens Co. $2.6B Source: TDLR

Texas public schools lost students this fall, the first statewide drop outside 2020 since at least 2011. Fall 2024: 5.51 million Fall 2025: 5.43 million That is 77,000 fewer students (−1.4%), per the Texas Education Agency.

@NewsLambert @ResiClub_HQ Texas is a big piece of that bet, and the builder market here has cooled: about 136,000 single-family permits over the 12 months through August, down 9% from a year earlier and roughly where it was three years ago (Census).

Texas regular gas: $3.87 this week (+3¢ vs last week, +$1.15 vs a year ago). Our 4-week call: $3.80 for the week of Nov 2 (likely $3.57–$4.04). Since 2020 it has missed 10% less than assuming no change. Source: EIA

🎲 The Odds: will these counties be a buyer's market (6+ months of homes for sale) in November? Jasper 97% · Uvalde 95% · Angelina 92% Somervell 62% · Burleson 54% (neither is one today) Travis 12% · Bexar 9% · Harris 4% Graded in January.

Layoff notices are way down in Texas this year. Jan-Sep 2026: 105 WARN notices, 17,245 workers Jan-Sep 2025: 233 notices, 19,946 workers Fewer notices, but bigger ones. Dallas, Harris and Tarrant counties lead. Source: Texas Workforce Commission

🔥 Bold Prediction of the Day Midland County is about to leave Texas in the dust. Midland-area spending, next 3 months: +13.0% forecast vs +7.9% for Texas. Model odds it clears +10%: 70%. Graded publicly in Jan 2027. #Texas #Midland