The Numbers Desk @TheNumbersDesk
Sports through the numbers. 📊 Data-driven insights for CFB, NFL, NBA, MLB & more. Bet smarter. Not harder. fieldwork-omega.vercel.app Joined April 2024-
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Florida has allowed 277 passing yards in its opener and ranks 109th in FBS against the pass (5.1 per pass play). Auburn throws for 226 a game (64th in FBS), 6.2 per attempt. Byrum Brown (241 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INT) should have room to work. Florida at Auburn · Florida -2.5
NFL spread splits through Week 1 Favorites 9-6-1 ATS (60%) Home favorites 6-5-1 · road favorites 3-1 Home teams 7-8-1 (47%) Avg result vs spread: home -2.0 Since 2024: favorites 286-279-5 (51%)
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Miami at Wake Forest · Miami -20.5, O/U 56.5 Miami: 45.0 points a game on 121 rushing and 428 passing yards; allows 6.0. Wake Forest: 38.0 points a game on 203 rushing and 286 passing yards; allows 26.0. 3rd down: Miami 73% · Wake Forest 48%
DJ Moore had 100 receiving yards on 5 catches in Week 1. DET allows 382 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) against the pass. FanDuel: 57.5. Projection 71. Form and matchup both say over. DET at BUF · BUF -4.5
NFL totals through Week 1 Overs 9-7 (56%) Avg points vs the total: +4.4 Total under 42: 1-3 O-U Total 42 to 47: 3-2 O-U Total 47.5 to 52: 5-2 O-U Total 52.5+: 0-0 O-U Since 2024: overs 300-267-3 (53%)
Kyle Monangai went for 100 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 1 (10.0 a carry). MIN allows 66 rushing yards a game, 10th in the NFL against the run. FanDuel: 38.5. Projection 47. The form says over. MIN at CHI · CHI -4.5
Mississippi State at South Carolina · South Carolina -4, O/U 58.5 Mississippi State: 50.0 points a game on 301 rushing and 322 passing yards; allows 13.0. South Carolina: 57.0 points a game on 279 rushing and 347 passing yards; allows 0.0.
MIA has given up 133 rushing yards in its opener and ranks 25th in the NFL against the run (4.0 per carry). Look for SF to lean on the ground game; could be a big day for Christian McCaffrey (68 rush yds/game, 6.8 per carry).
LV at LAC: injury report · LAC -6.5 LV: TE B. Bowers (out) LAC: no key injuries reported
Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 336 and 225 yards over his last 2 games (281 a game, 5 TD, 1 INT). LSU allows 118 passing yards a game, 10th in FBS against the pass. FanDuel: 277.5. Projection 251 (cleared it 1 of 2). This defense makes the under live.
CFB explosive play rate allowed through Week 2 Best defenses (lower is better) 1. New Mexico 0% 2. South Carolina 3% 3. Iowa State 3% 4. Florida 4% 5. Georgia 4% 6. Syracuse 5% 7. LSU 5% 8. Virginia 5%
Caleb Williams threw for 269 yards in Week 1 (2 TD, 0 INT). MIN allows 353 passing yards a game, bottom five in the NFL (30th of 32) against the pass. FanDuel: 221.5. Projection 244. Form and matchup both say over. MIN at CHI · CHI -4.5
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BUF has given up 109 rushing yards in its opener and ranks 21st in the NFL against the run (3.5 per carry). Look for DET to lean on the ground game; could be a big day for Jahmyr Gibbs (156 rush yds/game, 5.4 per carry, 2 TD).
Ole Miss has given up 354 rushing yards in 2 games and ranks 95th in FBS against the run (5.3 per carry). LSU runs for 231 a game (15th in FBS), 4.8 a carry. Look for LSU to lean on the ground game; could be a big day for Dilin Jones (90 rush yds/game, 4.4 per carry, 2 TD).
Justin Jefferson had 92 receiving yards on 8 catches in Week 1. CHI allows 387 passing yards a game, dead last in the NFL against the pass. FanDuel: 71.5. Projection 80. Form and matchup both say over. MIN at CHI · CHI -5.5
Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards in Week 1 (1 TD, 0 INT). NO allows 206 passing yards a game, 13th in the NFL against the pass. FanDuel: 233.5. Projection 248. The form says over. NO at BAL · BAL -7.5
DET has allowed 382 passing yards in its opener and ranks bottom five in the NFL (31st of 32) against the pass (5.9 per pass play). Josh Allen (334 pass yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INT) should have room to work; Dalton Kincaid (130 rec yds/game) could be in for a big day.
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