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Semiconductors sit at the top of the negative correlation list to oil right now. Oil up, semis down, for weeks straight. $QQQ is 7.3% off its October 6 high, and the Q's weekly expected move just widened to $23 into next week's earnings from Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Intel. Trump said in September oil doesn't fall until after the midterms, which land in early November. If that correlation holds, semis don't turn until oil does.
Since 1950, the 12 months after a midterm election have finished green in 19 out of 19 cases, averaging 15.4% versus the market's normal 9.7% annual average, per ClearValue Tax. The spread inside that record is wide: 1986's post-midterm year only returned 1.3%. $SPX sits at 7634, 2.4% off its October high, so the clock on this stretch just started
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$SPY and $QQQ both sold off hard today, QQQ down almost 3% as AI names got hit the worst. Watching for a bounce off this level of fear, still chopping sideways since the August 4 gap with the 10-year yield dropping below 5%.
• $PEP Broke a downtrend line dating back to March after a major insider buy. Pin sits near 138, anything above the 135 low still looks like accumulation.
• $PYPL Sitting in a range and getting bought on green volume, looks like accumulation. Watching 55 for a pullback entry against a 60 target zone.
• $NEE Pressing right at a long downtrend line, flagged on the leaps scanner. Needs to hold, consolidate and break that trend line to open room toward the 90s.
• $AXP Reports earnings with the stock up overnight, playing it through a credit spread structure. Spread sits at the 340/355 call strikes, with IV crush doing the work either way.
• $AMZN Pulled back to 250 with leaps accumulation starting on weakness. Watching anything below 250, without expecting a full fill down to 235.
$GOOGL Reaching it's bottom potentially at these levels. Markets are dumping and it's time to start to shop around...
One of the strongest companies out there is on a discount.
$HOOD near it's support range of $100 with earnings in 6 days. We are below the 50d SMA and seems to be a good opportunity near $100.
$HOOD seems solid at these levels, even before earnings...
$META Earnings are fueling a break above the 200 SMA and seems to spike another run at highs...
1 month ago the sentiment around $META was TERRIBLE, now everyone wants it.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
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