Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

Weekly scoreboard, every Friday: wins, misses, all of it. 🦆 BUY 🍞 $VFC, BUY, $25 PT. Flagged Aug 20 at $13.95, now $16.85: +20.8%. Same stretch: S&P 500 ($SPY) +0.1%, consumer discretionary ($XLY) −3.6%. Beat both, by 20.7 pts and 24.4 pts. Still 32.6% under our $25 target. WATCH 👀 Returns run from the close before each note's release. $KTB, $81.26 PT: +5.3% vs $SPY −0.8% $UWMC, $1.75 PT: −2.8% vs $SPY −2.0% $SOFI, $14.96 PT: −3.6% vs $SPY −1.1%, Even though $SOFI is trading under our PT This is NOT a BUY endorsement, we’re watching closely, at these levels $ALLY is quite literally half the price earning 1-2% more ROE. Food for thought. Every rated call stays public, wins and misses, at uglyduckcapital.com. Not investment advice.

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Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

17 hours ago

$VIX SPIKE, RECESSION INCOMING, HEDGE FUND IMPLOSION. …Remember, fear moves prices by the minute. Earnings move them by the year. In our view, only one of those clocks matters. 🦆

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Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

19 hours ago

@brockpierson We call it fundamental analysis for the love of the game.🦆

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Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

19 hours ago

@Tronthetrader $INFQ FINALLY on my radar

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Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

19 hours ago

@AlphaSenseInc Soft Vans wholesale is the known overhang. Import costs are the quieter one.

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Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

19 hours ago

@LizAnnSonders Apparel line nobody quoted: consumer goods ex autos still +0.4% m/m. $VFC $KTB

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Ugly Duck Capital Partners @UDCPartners

22 hours ago

Down 42%, so it must be cheap? Not so fast. In our view, $SOFI's multiple just got honest. An important lesson in fundamental analysis👇 The multiple vs the business (at the Nov 12 high vs today; per-share figures Q3'25 vs Q2'26): - Price to tangible book: 5.5x to 2.1x - Price to trailing EPS: ~61x* to 31x - Tangible book per share: $5.97 to $7.34 - Members: 12.6M to 15.8M One caveat: trailing EPS is lower than at the high ($0.54 to $0.49), because a one-time Q4 2024 tax benefit dropped out. Growing, though 2026 has gone differently than planned. SoFi entered the year expecting rate cuts. In Q2 the revenue guide went up while adjusted EPS stayed at $0.60, on a 22% tax rate. Vs Q3'25, quarterly revenue is up 27% and quarterly EPS is up 9%. Why P/E models flatter SoFi: to grow its loan book, it keeps ~12.5¢* of equity behind every new $1 it lends. That's a loan from shareholders to the balance sheet. In our base case it takes ~$7.5B* of the next five years' ~$8.1B* of earnings. With ~$2.2B* of surplus released in year one, ~$2.8B* is left for owners. A P/E prices all ~$8.1B*. Our DCF values the ~$2.8B*. On Anthony Noto: tweets aren't buys. His five 2026 open-market purchases (Form 4, code P) were all at $15.73-18.06. In our read, a buy under $15, below every price he paid this year, is the signal worth watching. Also in the note: - $46.6B of fair-value loans are marked to fair value every quarter, so rates move them - CET1 fell from 21.1% to 18.7%* in one quarter - Bear case $5.66; base $14.96 - Oct 27 Q3: the size of the mark after hedges, and whether the ~$825M* adjusted net income guide holds In our view, the price already pays for the plan. Our rating stays Watch until Oct 27 Q3 or a Noto buy under $15. That's the call to fundamentals. This is the way!🦆 *Approximate. Not investment advice. Figures are drawn from company filings and public sources as of Oct 16, 2026.