Variant Capital @VariantValue
Investing in companies and seeing if I’m right. Joined July 2025-
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If you find a stock that has had triple digit upside over the last 5 years but trading at a multiple lower than 25 it is highly likely (at least in today’s bull market) that it’s trading below intrinsic value.
Forecasting EPS is easy for the best businesses and impossible for the mediocre ones. Danger in using earnings growth + P/E multiple and not FCF to get a price is that the market may not be willing to pay the same premium in the future for that industry for whatever reason.
Trump doesn’t spend any time thinking about quarterly earnings - obviously some CEO donor or close friend pushed him to do this lol
Trump doesn’t spend any time thinking about quarterly earnings - obviously some CEO donor or close friend pushed him to do this lol
A combination of quality + growth > “value” which is a pretty meaningless term since all investing is value investing. There’s usually a good reason why something is cheap.
The nature of capitalism is such that capital gets more and more concentrated to a few firms that are able to completely annihilate their competition. This is why ~40% of the S&P 500’s returns have come from Mag7 for example.
People shit on ST catalysts or completely ignore them in the LO space when building a thesis (which is understandable if you’ve got a ~ 10 yr+ holding period) but the space is becoming too competitive to completely ignore indications of near-term (2Y or below) stock movement.
A 5 year DCF is completely fucking useless given that ~ 80% of the value is coming from the TV.
Right now Mag7 being betted on and seeing how much value / margin expansion they can create with AI.
Need some resources from anyone interested in tech / semi-cap / AI related equities. Any reading / subscription you recommend for keeping up with and getting a better understanding of any kind of innovation & breakthrough in tech.
You don’t want to pay a premium for a company with a lack of growth opportunities. Stock market values quality but without strong growth prospects Wall Street has little reason to be excited.
ChatGPT is a better language teacher than Duolingo / all these other apps. Also free & easier than having a tutor, cost of learning a language is zero now so do with that what you will.
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