Craig Gilbert @WisVoter
Lubar Center Fellow, Marquette Law. Alum of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Chronicler of close Wisconsin elections. jsonline.com Washington DC Joined March 2012-
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My big-picture view of how WI Sen Tammy Baldwin is positioned for re-election. Compared to fellow WI Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022, her poll ratings are much better, so less vulnerable in that key respect, but Johnson wasn't sharing a ticket with a president with neg. job ratings:
My big-picture view of how WI Sen Tammy Baldwin is positioned for re-election. Compared to fellow WI Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022, her poll ratings are much better, so less vulnerable in that key respect, but Johnson wasn't sharing a ticket with a president with neg. job ratings:
4 ways to slice Baldwin-Hovde WI Sen race in new Marquette @MULawPoll Registered voters: Baldwin up 44-37 After pushing undecideds, Baldwin up 52-47 Likely voters (who say they’re abs certain to vote): Baldwin up 45-41 After pushing undecideds, it’s 50-50
In new mulawpoll, Biden-Trump numbers in WI little changed from late January: Trump 51 Biden 49 among reg voters in 2-way race Trump 41 Biden 40 RFK JR 13 in multi-candidate field
8 years ago in WI there were huge regional differences among GOP voters over Trump, who was far more popular in rural north than suburban south of Wisc. Those GOP schisms faded after 2016 election, but have widened again in the past yr, per @MULawPoll a WI polling dive:
8 years ago in WI there were huge regional differences among GOP voters over Trump, who was far more popular in rural north than suburban south of Wisc. Those GOP schisms faded after 2016 election, but have widened again in the past yr, per @MULawPoll a WI polling dive:
a look at the "enthusiasm gap" in WI: Marquette Law @MULawPoll has polled 30+ times on voting enthusiasm in Wisconsin since 2014. Its last 2 polls (last fall and late January of this year) recorded the lowest levels ever of enthusiasm among Democratic voters:
a look at the "enthusiasm gap" in WI: Marquette Law @MULawPoll has polled 30+ times on voting enthusiasm in Wisconsin since 2014. Its last 2 polls (last fall and late January of this year) recorded the lowest levels ever of enthusiasm among Democratic voters:
New national @MULawPoll has tracking of the "double-negative" voters who are unfavorable to both Biden and Trump. 17% in Feb they've been around 20% since 2021. How might these folks vote? and Who are they? Link to the report: dropbox.com/scl/fi/6m6xni6…
My look at WI's new legislative maps, which barring more legal fighting would for the 1st time in decade-plus put both chambers in play, with one key exception: GOP would almost certainly hold state senate this fall because only 16 of 33 seats are up in 2024
My look at WI's new legislative maps, which barring more legal fighting would for the 1st time in decade-plus put both chambers in play, with one key exception: GOP would almost certainly hold state senate this fall because only 16 of 33 seats are up in 2024
my look at Mike Gallagher's WI congressional district, in light of his retirement announcement. Was a time when Northeast WI (Green Bay and northward) was a huge battleground House seat electing 3 Dems and 3 Reps from early 1970s to mid-2010s. That time is no longer:
my look at Mike Gallagher's WI congressional district, in light of his retirement announcement. Was a time when Northeast WI (Green Bay and northward) was a huge battleground House seat electing 3 Dems and 3 Reps from early 1970s to mid-2010s. That time is no longer:
The latest Wisconsin poll from Marquette bolsters the notion that both Biden and Trump are virtually unelectable, except when facing each other. Some thoughts about the numbers, including the huge gap between Biden v Trump in WI (tied) and Biden v Haley (Haley by 16) @MULawPoll
The latest Wisconsin poll from Marquette bolsters the notion that both Biden and Trump are virtually unelectable, except when facing each other. Some thoughts about the numbers, including the huge gap between Biden v Trump in WI (tied) and Biden v Haley (Haley by 16) @MULawPoll
In 50/50 Wisconsin, should a "politically neutral" legislative map reflect GOP's "natural" geographic advantage (because Dem vote is more concentrated) or aim for partisan parity? My look at the plans before the WI Supreme Court:
In 50/50 Wisconsin, should a "politically neutral" legislative map reflect GOP's "natural" geographic advantage (because Dem vote is more concentrated) or aim for partisan parity? My look at the plans before the WI Supreme Court:
Not only does the Marquette Poll sit near the top of these ratings, but it is the most transparent of the top polls rated here, meaning (unlike many polls) @MULawPoll is totally open about its methodology. No secret sauce!
Not only does the Marquette Poll sit near the top of these ratings, but it is the most transparent of the top polls rated here, meaning (unlike many polls) @MULawPoll is totally open about its methodology. No secret sauce!
I took a look back at the late Herb Kohl's dominant run as a WI candidate: 4 Senate wins, 3 by double digits, one (2006) by 38 points -- in 50/50 Wisconsin, and no defeats; the only major Dem to win Waukesha Co. in past 40 yrs. His 1st race in '88 was 1st WI election I covered:
I took a look back at the late Herb Kohl's dominant run as a WI candidate: 4 Senate wins, 3 by double digits, one (2006) by 38 points -- in 50/50 Wisconsin, and no defeats; the only major Dem to win Waukesha Co. in past 40 yrs. His 1st race in '88 was 1st WI election I covered:
In the WI polling, Biden's average pres approval numbers are worse than Trump's were, though Trump is more widely disliked today than Biden is (based on net favorability). My effort to take stock of Biden's polling numbers in tipping-point Wisconsin drawing on @MULawPoll data:
In the WI polling, Biden's average pres approval numbers are worse than Trump's were, though Trump is more widely disliked today than Biden is (based on net favorability). My effort to take stock of Biden's polling numbers in tipping-point Wisconsin drawing on @MULawPoll data:
“that Marquette poll might have told the most important story for the 2024 presidential election: The general election could very well come down to the “somewhat disapprovers” — the voters who say they somewhat disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job.” nbcnews.com/meet-the-press…
Took a look in the battleground state of Wisconsin at the very different political fault lines over US aid to Ukraine and US aid to Israel, per the latest @MULawPoll poll
Took a look in the battleground state of Wisconsin at the very different political fault lines over US aid to Ukraine and US aid to Israel, per the latest @MULawPoll poll
Always enjoy talking to @henryolsenEPPC about Wisconsin politics
Always enjoy talking to @henryolsenEPPC about Wisconsin politics
MULaw and NYT polls in WI also track on views of Biden and Trump in WI: Net Fav: (fav. rating minus unfav rating) MULaw: Biden -14; Trump -24 NYT: Biden -16; Trump -25 Biden approval MULaw: 42/57 NYT: 41/57
MULaw and NYT polls in WI also track on views of Biden and Trump in WI: Net Fav: (fav. rating minus unfav rating) MULaw: Biden -14; Trump -24 NYT: Biden -16; Trump -25 Biden approval MULaw: 42/57 NYT: 41/57
The MULaw and NYT WI polls show exactly what you’d expect in Biden-Trump matchup (tiny Biden lead) in a state that was a toss-up in 16 and 20, is 50/50 in party ID, where both men are deep under water, lots of discontent, but where GOP has struggled to get to 50% in the Trump Era
new @MULawPoll in WI tracks closely with NYT/Siena poll of WI: MULaw: Biden +2 v Trump NYT: Biden +2 MULaw: Biden -2 v DeSantis; NYT Biden -4 MULaw Biden -9 v Haley; NYT Biden -13
Could a third-party pres. candidate tip WI from 1 major party to the other in '24? Absolutely. But even in a state as close as WI, history shows why it's such an unlikely occurrence. My look at the math behind the presidential "spoiler" effect:
Could a third-party pres. candidate tip WI from 1 major party to the other in '24? Absolutely. But even in a state as close as WI, history shows why it's such an unlikely occurrence. My look at the math behind the presidential "spoiler" effect:
Dan Shafer @DanRShafer
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Marquette's new poll out later today @MULawPoll will be its 75th WI survey but 1st with new methodology (online plus phone; use of voter list and panel in place of 100% random digit-dialing). I talked to Charles Franklin @PollsAndVotes about the changes bit.ly/3pqTDLW
Sign up now for @wispolitics June 14 DC breakfast in conjunction with @MadisonBiz @UWMadisonURP A media panel will examine the debt-budget debate, the GOP prez race, Wis' 2024 battleground status. The panel: @taureansmall @WisVoter @AnnieLinskey wispolitics.com/event/june-14-…
It's @Mike_Pence speaking for the GOP, @PhilMurphy speaking for the Democrats at the 138th Anniversary Gridiron Dinner in March, Gridiron president @steveholland1 announces >>>
We at the Gridiron Club are pleased to report that our speakers program for the March 11 spring dinner is rounding out. Former Vice President Mike Pence will represent the Republicans. As we reported last week, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy will represent the Democrats.
@WisVoter Thanks Craig for your great coverage throughout. Looking forward to your post analysis.
@WisVoter To this point. From 2010 to 2020, Dane county’s population has grown by 80K people. For comparison, Waukesha county has only gained 17K over the same time period.
Our friend @WisVoter knows everything about Wisconsin elections. He plays it cold and straight.
Would like to see the look on @WisVoter face a decade ago when told @SpeakerVos would face a primary from the right
Donald Trump, who’s backing @michelsforgov in Wisconsin’s Republican gubernatorial primary, is now also endorsing @SpeakerVos’ primary challenger:
Congrats to both @genemueller and @vincevitrano on their remarkable runs at @620wtmj and @tmj4. Enjoy retirement, Gene, and best of luck with the new radio gig, Vince!
Worked with @WisVoter eons ago at the @MiamiHerald. Props and all the best to one of the best political reporters in the country. Now, about those Orioles…😉
1/personal news: I’m retiring from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel after 35 yrs of battleground/swing state/ground zero/tipping point reporting But not done! I'm starting a fellowship with the Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center, doing WI pol analysis that will appear in MJS this yr
@WisVoter Congratulations on retirement! You've always been a journalist with "A very particular set of skills"...including the ability to work Taken references in Paul Ryan profiles.
@WisVoter Congrats. Irreplaceable in terms of the work you do. Time to stop by the UW on your days off? Coffee or beer on me.
@WisVoter Can’t be 35 years! Seems like Aukofer retired just yesterday. Congratulations and best wishes to you and the family.
Craig, I’m astonished that you started your career there at the age of 10 but congratulate you for moving on to still grander things.
1/personal news: I’m retiring from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel after 35 yrs of battleground/swing state/ground zero/tipping point reporting But not done! I'm starting a fellowship with the Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center, doing WI pol analysis that will appear in MJS this yr
Yesterday’s book event re. my Goldman biography at the German embassy in Washington D.C. A BIG, BIG thank you to my wonderful host German ambassador Emily Haber, to her magnificent staff, and to fabulous moderator David Frum from The Atlantic. And to all the many great guests
When I asked ex-MLB star Tom Browning how hard he thought he could throw underhand under 1860 rules, he guessed about 40 MPH. So how did Excelsiors pitcher Jim Creighton throw at least twice that fast? JC's amazing story here: howbaseballhappened.com/blog/how-baseb…
Great analysis of redistricting in Wisconsin with snazzy maps from @DaphneChen_ and @WisVoter
These maps show how redistricting worked last time for partisan gain and reducing electoral competition. rssfeeds.jsonline.com/~/668983020/0/…
@WisVoter Also puzzled by the "partisan lean" @FiveThirtyEight reports for WI-03. Based on their explanation, using the difference in vote margins, it should be about half as big as what they report.