MADE IN HEAVEN 💫 @_MIH_XXIV
SLVCK HOUSE CORP. Heaven Joined December 2014-
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“A dominant theme in my investing life has been, whenever you think something is priced in, it’s not priced in:” Solus’ Greenhaus. Longer-term concerns become a “blah, blah, blah” until something cracks, and then markets wake up and say, we saw that coming bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Investors are the least bearish since February 2022 in the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager survey, with cash levels plunging from 5.3% to 4.8%.
Some economists expect US consumers to stop spending so much starting in October, when student loan repayments restart after a 3-year hiatus. But a survey shows 45% of borrowers expect to "go delinquent" & they won't be penalized for 12 months. creditkarma.com/about/commenta…
Citi’s Johanna Chua says China is headed toward “Japanification based on policy responses so far,” which “look too restrained.” Compared with Japan in the early 1990s, “China’s future growth prospects may be decelerating more sharply” without growth-enhancing structural reforms.
Her comments come after the biggest rate cut in China since 2020, which was delivered alongside a slew of worse-than expected economic data. The analyst put out some interesting charts comparing 1990s Japan to modern China: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009.
US 10-year yields hit 4.2%, the highest level since November and just 4bp away from an October level that was the highest since 2007.
Mike Mayo on the uproar at GS: “I think it’s like traders who were earning $6 million a year who got paid down last year to $4 million or something like that." They probably found scant sympathy from Solomon so now “they’re going to the press with it.” bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Industrial US companies are seeing their businesses in China slow down considerably. DuPont, Dow and Caterpillar have cut their sales outlook for the country into this year. wsj.com/articles/china… Tesla cut prices in China again. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Rates on 30-year mortgages in the US are now the highest since 2000, at 7.53%. h/t @tomkeene One key question right now is when this will start to drag on home prices in a more substantial way.
There's a battle brewing in the US bond market. On the one side, you have those who believe inflation is about to fall off a cliff into the deflation danger zone. On the other, you have those who believe we're just getting started in a high-inflation era bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
US money-market assets have reached a new record of $5.5 trillion. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Citi analysts led by Andrew Hollenhorst continue to see inflation picking back up later this year after today’s CPI report. “The most notable surprise was another 8% decline in airfares.” They don’t expect weakness in airfares to last, especially in light of higher energy costs.
If you're a US inflation hawk, you're now truly on the defensive. Our key metric for US inflation pressure - the combined weight of items in the CPI with m/m inflation > 2% - fell to 56% in July 2023. That's at the low end of the pre-COVID decade. The US inflation shock is over.
The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes. There's just a 15% chance of a September rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in November. The Fed is now expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing
“August is weird." Traders are preparing for big sudden moves in a less liquid month. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Credit-card balances surpassed $1 trillion for the first time last quarter, even as interest rates for credit cards reached a record high of 22.2% in May. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China export prices see their biggest drop in a decade. In developed countries “cheap consumer goods from China aren’t looked on as favorably as before." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
With 10-year yields now in a range of 3.5% to 4%, “I’m actually getting a little more positive on that, that here is a great buying opportunity:” Invesco’s Rob Waldner bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Implied inflation in Germany over the next 5-10 years has risen to 2.6%, the highest level since 2012, according to forward breakeven rates. "So the market is not giving a strong vote of confidence in the 2% inflation target:" Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid
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