Andy Constan @_dampdspring
https://t.co/DQvz3xpAEs macro & beta@2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice Joined May 2012-
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Fwiw this is simply not true The Bills issuance in Q3 is large but bills fell sharply as TGA was spend down Now rising to refil Looking forward if the Treasury wants to maintain a 22% Bills ratio they can keep coupon auction sizes the same for all of Fiscal 2026 and then increase
The new admin has collected trillions in promises for new investment in the US from companies and foreign countries. While these announcements make for splashy headlines, the actual economic impact is likely to be much more limited. Thread.
Funny how no one ever used the global M2 chart with arbitrary offsets before 2024. Weird, that.
Funny how no one ever used the global M2 chart with arbitrary offsets before 2024. Weird, that. https://t.co/1QlZe1f2nt
I have my views but what do you plumbers think about bills markets? Can they be oversupplied particularly with RRP going to zero? What do you think happens to money markets, repo, SRF, reserves, and USD in a substantially oversupplied bills market
Janet wasn't a bootlicker. Because Biden was incompetent. To be a bootlicker you have to lick boots. Biden wore slippers and barely made a single coherent economic statement. Janet was deep state
Higher For Longer Tariffs Ahead The recent trade "deals" with Japan, Europe, and China solidify that high tariffs are here to stay, absent a court reversal, while investment/purchase commitments are unlikely to move the needle.
For anyone who thinks today’s markets are just normal, I remind you that the market cap of Fartcoin is still $1.4B.
Per Olivier Blanchard's post tinyurl.com/bdemjhrf . The Current Account Deficit = Capital Account Surplus. Therefore, if Miran is right, foreign inflows into US assets are about to "decline even faster and further" and with more FDI, that means less in bonds and stocks.
Per Olivier Blanchard's post tinyurl.com/bdemjhrf . The Current Account Deficit = Capital Account Surplus. Therefore, if Miran is right, foreign inflows into US assets are about to "decline even faster and further" and with more FDI, that means less in bonds and stocks.
I hope @dampedspring is wrong, but fear he might be correct. ---- The Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) comes on Wednesday morning (a few hours before the FOMC announcement/Powell presser), when Treasury gives us the mix of Bills, Notes, Bonds, and TIPS they will issue next…
Can the market makers on here tell me when Don Jr. and Eric unload their puts.
The Trump trade war plan B, setting the sectoral tariffs aside: - 150 day balance of payments tariffs (across the board) - a slew of 301 investigations into major trading partners meant to replicate the reciprocal tariff threat wsj.com/economy/trade/…
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