Adam Kucharski @adamjkucharski
Epidemiologist/mathematician. Co-director of @LSHTM_CEPR and @TEDFellow. Author of The Rules of Contagion. Views own. blog.kucharski.io Joined January 2012-
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Finally got around to reading ‘The Battle of the Beams’ by @whippletom. Great story, brilliantly told.
We need to talk about that human case of H5N1 in Texas... Here is a bootstrapped (NJ) tree showing how the closest realtive of H5N1 sampled in cattle is a virus the infected an male individual who reportedly worked on a farm with cattle (dairy, I believe).
FB, Insta, Twitter etc. don't really know how much time you're spending with a post. Attempts to estimate this don't work well. But TikTok/Reels/YT shorts know *exactly* how long before you lose interest and bc videos are so short the signal is even clearer.
"The fullest complaint is that too often researchers ask the wrong questions, then communicate the answers badly."
For someone with decent knowledge of the production and testing process, there could be a useful piece of estimation analysis here - much like downstream cases identified abroad allowed estimation of early 2009 flu and covid outbreak sizes…
For someone with decent knowledge of the production and testing process, there could be a useful piece of estimation analysis here - much like downstream cases identified abroad allowed estimation of early 2009 flu and covid outbreak sizes…
"The volume around easy solutions will only grow as the memory of the worst of the COVID pandemic fades. But if we retreat into the comfort of narratives that pandemics do not require much action or preparedness, the memories could end up even worse next time"
"The volume around easy solutions will only grow as the memory of the worst of the COVID pandemic fades. But if we retreat into the comfort of narratives that pandemics do not require much action or preparedness, the memories could end up even worse next time"
With the spread of H5N1 - and ongoing risk from other potentially pandemic pathogens - we must push against the rising narrative that pandemics are easy to solve. New post: kucharski.substack.com/p/the-comfort-…
Apologies if I sound harsh in my comment about H5N1 public genomic data. It is such an important global question and now it is weeks and weeks of mention of widespread cases in mammals in the USA and data not public. Public data is the cornerstone of public health response.
🗣️Our Centre member Nadine Beckmann & @UKHSA's Sophie Everest talk to @LSHTM_Vaccines for #WorldImmunizationWeek about their #UKPHRST deployment experiences & the importance of vaccines, community engagement & trust in outbreak response. 💉🦠 🎧Listen 👇 @LSHTM @UKgovGHS
So, *preliminary* molecular clock analyses indicate that the time of the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the US cattle flu clade was late December. TMRCA of that clade and the closest relatives in birds, mid-December. If single intro, likely between those rough dates.
“All of the machine learning models underestimate the peak amplitude of winds associated with the storm” Background on AI forecasting blog.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/ai-weather-for…
“All of the machine learning models underestimate the peak amplitude of winds associated with the storm” Background on AI forecasting blog.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/ai-weather-for…
Son with two biscuits he made at nursery: “one is for me and one is for mummy, so you can’t have one today” *Pauses* “But don’t worry, you can make one another day”
Here's a visual of the US H5N1 "Cattle clade", HA plus two internal genes. Strongly suggests to me there was single origin, at least for these sequences. Possibly in late 2023/early 2024.
Your insights matter! The #PandemicFund's draft medium-term Strategic Plan is open for public comments until Friday. Join the conversation and contribute to our path forward. Share your thoughts by April 26th! For more information: thepandemicfund.org/news/public-co…
A clever and unique study documents that much Covid transmission occurred via shopping in retail stores pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn… @PNASNews @ThaisLaerkholmJ @CEBI_UCPH
Now here’s a tour de force for ya statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/04/21/now…
I would have hoped that in 2024 a central topic of the public conversation would be pandemic preparedness. I would have expected that we would all be keen to make the investments that make it less likely to suffer through another pandemic, with more deaths and lockdowns.
In 2010, YouTube had 800M active users + streamed 2B+ videos daily. But internally, we were flying by the seat of our pants. One burning question was on our minds: How were people actually using YouTube? Here's the story of how one UX researcher ignited sweeping changes to…
Meaghan Kall @kallmemeg
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342 Followers 262 FollowingThrilled and honored to join this distinguished community, and grateful to my mentors, collaborators, and especially my students, who have taught me so much along the way.
Congratulations Duncan Watts of @Penn, newly inducted #NASmember! #NAS161 #socialsciences #computerscience
The real threat to LLM chatbots isn't that adoption levels have stalled -- greater capabilities could reignite adoption. It's the fact that 1.5 years of massive investments haven't resulted in meaningfully better models, that would make a real difference in adoption potential.
@adamjkucharski Though an average tanker is 30000l so that’s a lot of milk…. Bulky milk testing of farms ( pooled from all animals on a farm between milking and shipping) is a commonly used diagnostic tool for herd status
@adamjkucharski You would have to sample milk tankers coming into the plant ( they usually pick up from the same nearby set of farms.
@adamjkucharski I love the critique of titles 'thing, thing and thing' [although I hope no-one googles my own publications].
🚨New review🚨 Do warning labels on misinformation actually work? In Current Opinion in Psychology, @DG_Rand & I show that the answer is YES: warnings can reduce belief & sharing by ~25-50%! We also review moderators (eg more visible=bigger effect) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
When I first moved to DC in 2012 this was introduced to me as “shoulder surfing”.
I wrote about THE STARE — that tic at parties (in D.C. and beyond) where people glance over your shoulder to find someone more important than you. “And then we ended the conversation, she walked away, and I turned around. It was a mirror.” wapo.st/4bcGmsw
Excited to be joining Schmidt Science Fellows! I'm looking forward to being a part of this community and learning about all the exciting interdisciplinary science being done @SchmidtFellows
We’re so excited to announce our 2024 Schmidt Science Fellows. 32 exceptional early career scientists will join our global community to pursue interdisciplinary research and help change how science is done. schmidtsciencefellows.org/news/eric-and-…
Another bump for my review of Bernanke's Review of the @bankofengland forecasting and modelling, a document which [I kid you not] has as one of its recommendations that there ought to be a review of modelling at the Bank of England. ft.com/content/f76c54…
I've started to see a trend of people sending their AI summarization tools to online talks, webinars and Q&As rather than coming in person.
@adamjkucharski My toddler told me that she wasn’t upset at the death of the cat as she had lots of dolls and I could get a dog! I wish adults could be more brutally honest.
@adamjkucharski It's a bit like supporting Arsenal. Sorry, no trophies this year, but there's always next year.
My latest doc The Poker Parent, presented by @obrientweet, isn't broadcast on @bbcworldservice radio until Thursday but it can already be heard on BBC Sounds. Link in next tweet ♠️♥️♣️♦️ but here's Alex to explain a little more about it...
A big thanks to David for putting this video together. I no have a good understanding how to use @crewAIInc to create agents using Llama 3 and Groq. Damn Groq running the 70b parameter model is fast! Build Anything with Llama 3 Agents, Here’s How youtu.be/i-txsBoTJtI?si… via
28 founder rules that they never teach you: 1. Cash-flow is like an "exit" every year 2. Networking events are 99% a waste of time 3. Your mental health is always at risk 4. You most likely won't make life changing money but will probably make "car changing" money or "house…
I think one of the problems with the current debate is that it suggests we need reasons and evidence to ban phones in schools when actually we need reasons and evidence to let them in. The burden of proof is all the wrong way round. substack.nomoremarking.com/p/is-there-eno…
One of the things that frustrates me about the current debate around social media/smartphones/mental health is that it's very often framed as "alarmist who wants action NOW" vs "out-of-touch critic who only cares about 'data' & wants to wait for the evidence". This is incorrect.
New post! I take you through what it's like to explore data through data visualization, focusing on causes of death. How do you decide which chart is best? What do different visualizations tell you about the data? And why does dataviz matter at all? scientificdiscovery.dev/p/four-charts-…
funny/sad that autocorrect thinks the phrase 'what has gone right with today's generation' must be wrong.
It'd be great if someone would write a book about what happened here. I am wondering what has gone right with today's generation.
A very positive development in Europe and I don't think this has been reported much in the media during the last few decades. The suicide rates among young people declined in many European countries.