Bruce McNevin @bdmcnevin
Joined February 2010-
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Stocks Need Easy Money to Consistently Outperform Hedge Funds blog.unlimitedfunds.com/stocks-need-ea…
Ex-Bridgewater exec Bob Elliott’s Unlimited raises venture capital to help launch ETFs replicating hedge-fund, private-equity strategies marketwatch.com/story/ex-bridg…
Great interview with Bob Elliott CEO of Unlimited Funds.
Bob Elliott, CEO of Unlimited Funds was on Fox Business this morning discussing economy and its impact on financial markets for 2022-2023. Nice job,Bob!
Check out my new website that I created on @Wix ka62770.wixsite.com/website-508
Managed Futures Have Been Good, Diversified Alpha Will Be Better blog.unlimitedfunds.com/managed-future…
New Unlimited HFND ETF Replicates Hedge Fund Returns Through Machine Learning | ETF Trends etftrends.com/new-unlimited-…
$HFND has launched! Check our website for details. unlimitedetfs.com
Lessons From Volcker's Inflation Fight blog.unlimitedfunds.com/lessons-from-v…
Volcker’s experience is more useful than reading the tea leaves of Powell’s speech. By studying his descriptions and seeing the macroeconomic relationships, investors can visualize the dynamics and more effectively prepare for an inflationary cycle. hubs.la/Q01kTXll0
Portfolio managers are Bob Elliott, former deputy CIO of Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, and Bruce McNevin, economist and NYU professor. If memory serves, Goldman Sachs filed for, but did not launch a bunch of similar ETFs back in 2014. @bdmcnevin sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
Portfolio managers are Bob Elliott, former deputy CIO of Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Associates, and Bruce McNevin, economist and NYU professor. If memory serves, Goldman Sachs filed for, but did not launch a bunch of similar ETFs back in 2014. @bdmcnevin sec.gov/Archives/edgar… https://t.co/v3SrIzbTWB
I agree with Josh Barro, businessinsider.com/trump-do-nothi…
The Most Hated Man In American History daily.jstor.org/aaron-burr/
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5K Followers 208 Following Advancing scientific research through computational methods and software tools. Centers: #FlatironCCA, #FlatironCCB, #FlatironCCM, #FlatironCCN and #FlatironCCQJapanese intervention is useless and self-defeating, making it best to fade any immediate market move. Until the underlying macro fundamentals change the pressure on the exchange rate will persist. And right now US monetary/treasury policy matters a lot more than the MoF & BoJ:
One of the most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations. For nearly 15 years, most investors and central banks have held that neutral in around 2-2.5%, but increasing evidence it may be higher, even 4-5%.
While the current macro dynamics feel unprecedented, we have seen previous cycles with similar dynamics: x.com/BobEUnlimited/…
@timpierotti1 See a lot of similarities to late 60s dynamics. income led expansion supported by fiscal largess and monetary policy that was a little too easy for conditions and inflation meandering higher. Then UE rate stayed at secular lows for 4 years:
With the Fed likely signaling later cuts and Treasury supply rising in Q2, what is the catalyst ahead for higher asset prices? Very different setup than last fall when the big shift to easier policy by the Fed and Treasury drove a sharp rebound from depressed price levels...
The wealth impact of the post-covid rise in home prices is much greater than the return series alone. The leverage coming from taking a mortgage creates a magnified wealth impact. Its even further supported by low cost borrowing locked in and faster amortization.
In the long-term reg changes + steep yield curve will incentivize banks to take down duration risk (h/t @FedGuy12), but the funding is needed now. Dealers have been taking on a lot more duration risk recently and are now back to highs even before duration supply picks up in 2Q.
There is no textbook that will make you a great investor. It takes consistent discipline to build macro and markets intuition over years of effort. Here I share my daily practice (and sources I use!) used over the last 20 years: youtu.be/37AF5ZihqGc?si…
The sharp rise in traded gasoline prices is the single most important piece of data the Fed is following right now. If that disinflationary impulse in the 2H23 flips to an inflationary as it has in recent weeks, it is going to challenge the Fed's ability to cut much.
The Fed will not cut rates much until bond yields rise.
Gold pushing new all time highs despite broad hatred in the US, higher dollar, and tighter dollar US monetary policy expectations suggests the surge in demand is from abroad, particularly China. Gold price is rising even as US ETF assets keep falling:
The reason why many fiscal expansion policies have a low gdp multiplier is b/c new payments or tax cuts are incremental to existing incomes. The result is the impact for spending is driven by the behavior of the next dollar of disposable income, not the first.
Non-financial corporate borrowing as % of GDP has been falling as nominal growth (and nominal profits) have risen and borrowing has been anemic. An income-driven "beautiful" deleveraging.
There is no empirical evidence that monetary policy is tight, despite the case made by the "real raters." GDP at or above potential for almost 2yrs, stocks at highs, spreads at lows, and frothy stuff recently parabolic. No cuts/hikes in '24 px in at ~20% probability looks low.
The lighter blue line is the level of nominal GDP and the dark blue line is one of the pieces that contributes to the total nominal GDP line. Separate axes with the same scale size. Since '21 has the dark blue line been a positive, negative or neutral contribution to growth?
Today's CRE problems are fundamentally different than what caused the GFC. Here I cut through the FUD and discuss how these problems are fundamentally different than 15yrs ago and how even in extreme stress there is little systemic risk. youtu.be/LbQ8coJ4n7c?si…
If stocks keep going up bonds are gonna keep selling off.
Analysts are expecting the S&P 493 to experience a significant pickup in earnings growth by the end of '24. While these sorts of expectations are always too high at the start of the year, even an adjusted version suggests double-digit earnings growth in '24, quite strong.
Typically the best combination for EM FX returns is high local fx rates, low vol, cheap FX, and improving sentiment, at a time of fine DW growth and improving liquidity (particularly dollars). Is this coming together today for many of these economies? Real rates are high:
Given the significant market moves since the start of the year, it is prudent to have different views today than 6 weeks ago. If a manager remains stuck on their original ‘24 outlook positions, they are likely not responding with enough agility to shifts in market pricing.
The rise in productivity and the fall in nominal wage growth in recent quarters has brought the balance much more into line with a structural 2% inflation rate.
Trends for United States
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