@OlivierRoland@EricLarch Je n’aurai rien voulu, je regarde avec attention. Je suis d’accord sur la théorie encore une fois. Cependant tout repose sur le postulat que l’exécution se fera sans blocage (chockepoint a l’américaine lors de la précédente administration) et que le “temps long” existera.
Le 10 octobre MSCI a proposé d’exclure des indices toutes les sociétés dont ≥50% des actifs sont en crypto
MicroStrategy est directement visée
Le marché a plongé ce jour-là… mais le lien n’a pas été fait directement avec cette annonce
Et seulement maintenant J.P. Morgan prévient : jusqu’à 2,8 Mds$ pourraient sortir de microstrategy si MSCI applique la règle alors que l’exposition passive totale sur MSTR approche déjà des 9 Mds$
Enfin bref, décision le 15 janvier 2026
Ça justifie la baisse méchante que prend Strategy
VERY interesting:
MSCI’s announcement was actually made on October 10th but JP Morgan only reported it today.
And if you look at the exact timestamp, it dropped minutes before the October 10th flash crash.
Bitcoin dips -30%
People’s reaction: extreme fear
Black Friday -30% sale on a new iPhone
People’s reaction: take my money
This is why most people stay poor
They buy liabilities on sale and sell assets on fear, the exact opposite of how wealth is built
@michaeljburry Is there any indication of the respective sizes of the flows though? That would help to see if it’s a zero sum game (problematic) or not
@EricLarch On ne peut plus d’accord. Comptes d’entreprise fermés, refus d’entités centralisées (banques, échanges). Le système bancaire est désuet dans un monde qui a évolué bien trop vite pour lui, au delà de ne pas avoir tenu ses promesses de “confiance”.
@Polymarket A great teaching about understanding the market rules (resolves to 50 if nothing by July 31, with gta 6 delayed to November and Jesus… well stating the obvious)
You became a founder.
You quit your job, raised a little money, and everyone called you “brave.”
You pulled all-nighters, pitch the dream, and told yourself you’re one launch away.
Then a year passes.
No traction. No salary. Your co founder quit. Your girl friend left you for someone with a bigger paycheck. Your friends are buying houses while you’re eating instant noodles and explaining to your parents why you still don’t have a “real job.”
Is this the end? You start wondering if you made a mistake.
No. You keep telling yourself every founders went through this at some points. you are just one new product away from winning. One marketing idea from success.
you’ll miss this someday.
The late nights, the doubt, the fire that kept you building when no one believed.
Because these are the years that forge you.
And one day, when it finally works, you ll want to go back to this stage again. They all do.
@elonmusk Once medical applications have been tackled, please make us enhanced humans with access to all the knowledge accumulated by civilization (the internet) and with an internal AI companion 🙏
Imagine the consequences on primary and secondary markets if a prominent VC or asset manager was to say that we are in an AI bubble. Being asked on stage about it is systematically prompting a form of negative answer. Even those who say we are say it’s a good one. Otherwise they say it’s not comparable to the dotcom because all chips are in use as opposed to dark cables back then. A lot of money is flowing into AI, and companies slap it on left and right to stay “current”.
AI is a very useful companion at specific times tho. (generating random images is fun but gets old fast).
Macro take:
The job market is starting to look very weak. Lots of layoffs + experience recruiting on the ground. Used to be an employee market, not anymore.
AI is artificially pushing the entire S&P/Nasdaq higher, compensating for other poor performers. OpenAI intends to IPO at 1 trillion but revenue is 12 billions.
The Fed ends quantitative tightening and will finish rate cutting over the next year, which may accelerated by president Trump to further boost the market.
Crypto looks weak with no alt season this cycle. Bitcoin is still very sensitive to bad macro news so still seen as risky rather than refuge. Traditional financial institutions were shaken by their first crypto volatility event post October 10 manipulation.
All of this points to short term new all time highs but medium term crash.
@Xeer It actually makes sense to quickly locate an event in the medium term. Days occur at a frequency that is too high to distinguish events right away
Easiest ways to get rich:
•Sell men lust
•Sell women beauty
•Sell parents peace
•Sell kids dreams
•Sell the rich safety
•Sell the broke hope
Same game. Different packaging.
OK, hear me out on this one.
10 hour days. 100 minutes / hour. 100 seconds / minute.
Noon is 5:00. Midnight = 0:00 or 10:00.
Base-12/60 time is a Babylonian fossil.
Just because they didn't figure it out during the French Revolution doesn't mean it can't be done.
🇪🇺 Telegram sent this message to all its users in France regarding Chat Control. People must know the names of those who try to steal their freedoms:
Today, the European Union nearly banned your right to privacy. It was set to vote on a law that would force apps to scan every private message, turning everyone’s phone into a spying tool.
France led the push for this authoritarian law. Both former and current Interior Ministers, Bruno Retailleau and Laurent Nuñez, supported it. Last March, they declared that police should see French citizens’ private messages. The Republicans and Macron’s Renaissance group voted for it.
Such measures are supposed to “fight crime”, but their real target is regular people. It wouldn’t stop criminals — they could just use VPNs or special websites to hide. Officials’ and police messages wouldn’t be scanned either, since the law conveniently exempts them from surveillance. Only YOU — ordinary citizens — would face the danger of your private messages and photos being compromised.
Today, we defended privacy: Germany’s sudden stand saved our rights. But freedoms are still threatened. While French leaders push for total access to private messages, the basic rights of French people — and all Europeans — remain in danger.
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