Bernard Hickey @bernardchickey
I write and speak independently about economics, business, investing and politics. Get my subscription news email here https://t.co/qhfT0iMgWQ thekaka.substack.com Auckland, New Zealand Joined November 2008-
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#BHN @bernardchickey's headline from this morning encapsulates the poll from TVNZ last night and should be a warning to National #nzpol He states "this is the fastest fall, by any new Government in the MMP era" The last time this kind of poll happened was National in 1991
The Government has torched its own honeymoon before it got going. Christopher Luxon now faces being rolled by his caucus before Christmas if he can’t turn this around. open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/p/…
Mid-cycle slowdowns are #InterestRatePurgatory
Great article from Red on the foolish & arbitrary restrictions now faced by disabled people and their families, 100% agree: "Let’s cancel the clarifications, and return true flexibility, agency and self-determination for disabled people and our whānau." thedlist.co.nz/newsfeed/the-h…
In today's #5in5withANZ podcast+email: @ANZ_Research's @ricyet on what interest rate purgatory looks like during a mid-cycle slowdown; Mahjabeen Zaman on what happens now yen is through 158, and Adam Boyton on why Australian consumer confidence is so weak. youtube.com/watch?v=r3fH-0…
The new Government is talking the economy into a real recession lasting through 2024. open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/p/…
In other news, @bernardchickey nails it in one.
In today's #5in5withANZ: @danielhynes on easing Middle East tensions #Oil #GOLD; Raymond Yeung on the CSRC's boost for Hong Kong stocks; Khoon Goh on Singapore CPI; & @ricyet on why more supply may not be enough to help Australian housing affordability. open.spotify.com/episode/4HaESy…
Hurricanes Poua should’ve just waited a month and done a haka about how the PM’s favourite team are fuckin’ trash now
The Government has started counting chickens before they hatch. open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/p/…
In today's #5in5withANZ free global markets podcast, @ricyet quotes @JamesCarville on the power of bond markets, plus previews Australia CPI and US GDP/PCE. Also Felix Ryan on Friday's BoJ decision & Soni Kumari on her note with @danielhynes on silver. youtube.com/watch?v=DZx5Eg…
BREAKING: Israeli officials notified the US earlier today they planned to retaliate in the next 24-48 hours, sources told @PeterMartin_PCM and me.
And here’s the podcast version of our weekly Hoon webinar on the news of the week. Featuring @PeterBale Cathrine Dyer and @Robert_Patman talking about politics, geopolitics, climate and media. open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/p/…
Here’s the weekly climate news wrap I do with The Kākā’s climate correspondent @cathrine Dyer . We make this freely available as part of our public interest journalism mission funded and encouraged by paying subscribers. Nga mihi nui. thekaka.substack.com/p/the-humpty-d…
This week's Potsdam report on climate damage is a big deal. I talked this through with The Kākā's climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer here. Open for all. thekaka.substack.com/p/study-sees-c…
In today's #5in5withANZ podcast: Strong US factory figures boost Treasury yields and USD vs AUD & NZD; Australian jobs data 'not too hot, not too cold'; A closer look at India's capex boom. Out daily at 0600 SYD/MEL time. FYI @ANZ_Research @ricyet youtube.com/watch?v=v7b8ae…
Hoo boy. This is quite the paper. ‘…we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices .’ nature.com/articles/s4158…
Climate inflation is a problem for central banks. They react as if it’s temporary by hiking, but that delays the investment needed to stop warming. Should the RBNZ look through climate inflation? Adrian Orr says no. But I think it’s a debate worth having. open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/p/…
In today's #5in5withANZ: Inflation concerns in UK and NZ; #Oil down 3%; @ecb seen on track for June cut; Four reasons why the #USDollar is so strong. FYI @ANZ_Research @ricyet youtube.com/watch?v=fz2QQl…
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#BHN @bernardchickey's headline from this morning encapsulates the poll from TVNZ last night and should be a warning to National #nzpol He states "this is the fastest fall, by any new Government in the MMP era" The last time this kind of poll happened was National in 1991
Mid-cycle slowdowns are #InterestRatePurgatory
In today's #5in5withANZ podcast+email: @ANZ_Research's @ricyet on what interest rate purgatory looks like during a mid-cycle slowdown; Mahjabeen Zaman on what happens now yen is through 158, and Adam Boyton on why Australian consumer confidence is so weak. youtube.com/watch?v=r3fH-0…
Great article from Red on the foolish & arbitrary restrictions now faced by disabled people and their families, 100% agree: "Let’s cancel the clarifications, and return true flexibility, agency and self-determination for disabled people and our whānau." thedlist.co.nz/newsfeed/the-h…
Also well worth a look is @bernardchickey's summary on the The Kākā. open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/p/…
The @NZ_PCE submission is just one more strong example of those pointing out the perils of the fast track bill, as reported by @bernardchickey this weekend. thekaka.substack.com/p/this-bill-is…
The bond market “can intimidate everybody”. #5in5
In today's #5in5withANZ free global markets podcast, @ricyet quotes @JamesCarville on the power of bond markets, plus previews Australia CPI and US GDP/PCE. Also Felix Ryan on Friday's BoJ decision & Soni Kumari on her note with @danielhynes on silver. youtube.com/watch?v=DZx5Eg…
Interest rate purgatory continues. Fed, BOE and RBNZ all facing hawkish news this week. But the ECB set to cut in June. Australian employment out today next to throw up information.
In today's #5in5withANZ: Inflation concerns in UK and NZ; #Oil down 3%; @ecb seen on track for June cut; Four reasons why the #USDollar is so strong. FYI @ANZ_Research @ricyet youtube.com/watch?v=fz2QQl…
Thrilled to announce that @nmtruebridge will be returning to @NZStuff in July and joining my team.
@publicaddress Bring back HARD NEWS! (like, seriously, weekly podcast on Substack or similar? tho TBH thats kinda what @bernardchickey is doing at The Kaka, tho with more of a finance bent and less swears)
Helpful insights and suggestions from someone who loves to dig into the detail Would add to this: Hyperlink to source material, where possible. OIA responses, reports you're relying on, the Google sheet you created
Explaining is not losing. In the newsletter today I lay out why I think trust in the NZ news media is crashing - and one way to address it. henrycooke.news/p/one-solution…
This story is the capstone of 2 years of reporting on problems in NZ specialist public mental health services and particularly the crisis-response system. It's also one of my last stories for @nzherald, so please indulge me a long, rambling thread. This one is from the heart. /1
Exclusive on @nzherald today: Parents of an 18-year-old have demanded an explanation from Health NZ after their son was accused by a crisis nurse of pretending to be suicidal to upset his parents. I obtained a recording of the nurse's comments. 1/ nzherald.co.nz/nz/parents-out…
US CPI was hawkish, the BOC had a hint of dovishness and the RBNZ was aggressively neutral. #5in5 Welcome to the mid-cycle slowdown; #InterestRatePurgatory.
#5in5withANZ free podcast out at 6am Syd/Melb daily: Higher-than-forecast US inflation pushes out views on first Fed rate cut to Nov from July; Treasury yields up 20bps; US$ up; A$&NZ$ down >1%; Incl: @ANZ_Research's @sharon_zollner & more. FYI @ricyet youtube.com/watch?v=pTO-H0…
US CPI critical tonight to keep first-half easing hopes alive. July is our pick. #5in5
In today's #5in5withANZ podcast & email with @ANZ_Research: US yields fall before CPI data; Taiwan CPI soft; Australian consumers eye more inflation -@madelinedunk; @NZIER's Q1 QSBO v.soft; @ReserveBankofNZ to hold OCR - @sharon_zollner FYI @ricyet youtube.com/watch?v=NhRhdu…
Coffee, croissant, #5in5. It’s like oxygen.
Today's #5in5withANZ, includes @ANZ_Research's @ricyet on strong US non-farm payrolls & a look-ahead to this week’s ECB decision with Brian Martin. Also @madelinedunk on the RBA's effectiveness and @KishtiSen on why Fiji needs a lot more hotel rooms. youtube.com/watch?v=WssZVQ…
When I was pregnant we were told, at one point, that the baby wouldn’t be able to walk. Last night my beautiful 3 year old Penelope took her first steps. Anything is possible. instagram.com/reel/C5c0qXwrs…
Former Herald editor Gavin Ellis' decision to hire Rod Oram brought him to NZ, where he pushed the boundaries for decades. As Oram is farewelled in Auckland today, Ellis remembers his forward-thinking colleague and admired friend newsroom.co.nz/2024/04/05/rod…
EV sales in the first quarter of this year were down 75% on last year's average, with a recovery to 2023 levels looking exceedingly unlikely this year. It comes after the Clean Car Discount was scrapped in December. newsroom.co.nz/2024/04/04/ev-…