Buckley's & None @buckleysnone
We combine public opinion polling and historical election results to predict the outcome of the next Australian federal election. @martintburgess buckleysandnone.com Australia Joined November 2018-
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Wonderful work from @NateSilver538 and the @FiveThirtyEight crew. So many thoughtful and pragmatic modelling decisions. Looking forward to seeing how the #forecast goes. fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-f…
It looks like the Coalition will win 77 seats, the ALP 68 seats, with 6 members on the crossbench. We’ve added a little annotation to show where these results sit inside our forecast. Check it out below. We’ll update if anything changes. #auspol buckleysandnone.com
@ForecasterEnten We aggregate those polls and still had a 25% chance of a Coalition victory. Not the first time there was a polling error but herding was a big problem.
Flip a coin twice. If you get heads both times, you should be just as surprised as you were when the Coalition won on Saturday. #auspol #ausvotes2019 buckleysandnone.com/how-surprising…
How surprising was the Coalition win? Maybe less than we think. #auspol #ausvotes2019 #auspolfail buckleysandnone.com/how-surprising…
And here we were, worried we'd underestimated the ALP. Post is in the works. #auspol #AusVotes2019 #auspollfail
Our forecast is more bearish on an ALP victory than the conventional wisdom. We’re a little nervous but we’ll see tonight 😬. This is our first election model and we’re looking forward to doing a post mortem and improving for next time. Thanks for following along! 2/2
🎉Happy Election Day🎉 We've added #newspoll to our forecast in what should be the last update. Our current prediction has the ALP with a 34.6% chance of winning, the Coalition at 25.2%, and a 40.1% chance of a minority government. buckleysandnone.com #auspol #ausvotes 1/2
Is this sacrilege? #democracysausage #sorrynotsorry #auspoI #AusVotes2019
We've added that latest #newspoll and #essential polls to our forecast and it's done a bit of damage to @AustralianLabor's chance of winning. Check out our latest forecast at buckleysandnone.com #auspol #AusVotes19
🚨 Double Poll Update 🚨 We've added the latest #ipsos poll and #newspoll to our forecast and the @AustralianLabor are ⬆️ a touch to 42.7%, Coalition ⬇️ to 19.7%. Chance of minority goverment almost unchanged at 37.6%. #auspol #AusVotes19 buckleysandnone.com
We’ve added the new @guardian #essential poll to our forecast and this one did move our forecast 🚨🚨. Chance of ALP win ⬇️ to 39%, COA ⬆️ to 22%. Chance of a minority government or an ALP victory are about equal. buckleysandnone.com @billshortenmp 👇🏼#auspol #ausvotes2019
Three polls have shown a serious shift towards the Coalition but our forecast has hardly changed. What's going on? Here's a quick explainer. #auspol #AusVotes2019 buckleysandnone.com/2019/04/29/the…
@barriecassidy @workmanalice I think '98 is a pretty good example of what COULD happen this election: LNP's primary was 39.5%, not far off where Newspoll has it now (38%), ALP's primary vote was 40.1% in '98, three points higher than it is currently. ALP are certainly favourites but it's not a done deal.
In the lead up to the election we're putting together a short series explaining how our forecast works. Here's part one - a crash course on the Australian electoral system #AusVotes19 #auspol Stay tuned for part two soon! buckleysandnone.com/2019/04/25/how…
Our forecast had a very small uptick in the chance of a Coalition victory (⬆️0.3%) after the latest @roymorganonline poll (ALP 51 Coalition 49). #AusVotes2019 #auspol
Who thinks @abcnews should just be @AntonyGreenABC talking about the election for the next 36 days? 🙋♀️🙋♂️🙌 #AUSVote2019 #auspol
Election analyst @AntonyGreenABC on key seats to watch this election. #abc730 #auspol #AUSVote2019
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