Timeless @ceothree
Joined May 2019-
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I’ve said for a while that this would not be some sort of mythical interest rate-driven recession or a market pullback that results in recession. None of those things ever really happen. This is going to be a demand destruction recession. And that’s why it will be so…
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit.
In late stage Carry Regime, it’s all one trade - winning side or losing side are simply symmetric. QQQ - you look like the “outside cat” what you doing out there buddy?
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
#BoJ and Ueda have been masterful. Contrary to popular belief these guys have been navigating the current economic conditions perfectly. You must remember they are dealt with an impossible task. People in Japan just aren't having enough babies. This has resulted in a sickly…
Even with the selloff, $NVDA has added $1.4 trillion in market cap over the last year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's total market cap $1 trillion. So in other words, Nvidia has created more wealth for investors in just one year than Bitcoin has in 15 years.
TIME TO HEDGE? Today we’re going to take a break from the 100-year time horizon stuff and serve up something tactical. I get a lot of people saying “Campbell, we love how you predicted Evergrande, Taiwan, Lebanon, Vladivostok, Tiktok, Gold in China, shipping cost inflation,…
Peter Lynch's Cocktail Party Theory What stage are we in now?
"Sell in May And go away" Is not supposed To work this way
I suppose the war for elite talent (and stock option comp) is also a factor causing the big tech firms to focus so hard on financial engineering. And obviously MGMT comp.
I recall thinking recently 'NDQ/SPX is down YTD, if this is a bull market tech should lead, I ought to long NDQ' But perhaps this is finally the Mag7s/NDQ's TSLA/SOX moment of inching underperformance before a significant drawdown. At which point one who'd held the relative…
I recall thinking recently 'NDQ/SPX is down YTD, if this is a bull market tech should lead, I ought to long NDQ' But perhaps this is finally the Mag7s/NDQ's TSLA/SOX moment of inching underperformance before a significant drawdown. At which point one who'd held the relative…
If you don't wait for a setup to come to you, then you are no different from a gambler Patience > Precipitance
What’s the hallmark of narrative driven markets - not to say bubbles? Perception that something fundamental has changed when data does not confirm it. Rally from Oct lows was built around the notion that a generational game changer is in the works. But 12m forward EPS is only up…
The last time the Nasdaq 100 made a new all-time high on a day it gained 3%+? 3/22/2000
I have had serious ups and downs in trading. Just to name a few of the downs: -Took relatively consistent hits to performance as volatility didn’t perform to my expectations during Q1 22 -Have had more inappropriately sized short dated option plays expire worthless on me than I…
Secrets of the trade - Volume 1. Large account Tweet formula: 1 - Show visual. Provide no context. 2 - State the obvious, but feign surprise (emoji's help). 3 - Claim insider knowledge. Demonstrate how well you're connected to the power structure. 4 - Close with an…

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