Michael Mauboussin @mjmauboussin
Decisions, books, investing, mental models, complex adaptive systems, skill, luck. Adjunct Prof @Columbia_Biz and Chairman Emeritus of the Board @sfiscience michaelmauboussin.com Joined July 2012-
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Three tables/charts that caught my attention in Michael Mauboussin’s @mjmauboussin latest piece, “Valuation Multiples What They Miss, Why They Differ, and the Link to Fundamentals” 1 | For the same EBITDA, companies with lower DA, higher EBIT should have higher EV/EBITDA…
I have been sharing @ckaiwu’s latest piece liberally. Great stuff sparklinecapital.com/post/internati…
I have been sharing @ckaiwu’s latest piece liberally. Great stuff sparklinecapital.com/post/internati…
Whoa! This gem of a video just came out. Featuring @mjmauboussin, @HowardMarksBook, and other great investors/authors. youtu.be/6Kas8LRJnGU?si…
Great piece from @mjmauboussin and Dan Callahan on multiples. One of his best ideas about multiples is that you have to earn the right to use one. Only when you have done enough fundamental analysis do you have the ability to judge what multiple a company should trade at.
My conversation with @mjmauboussin and @bgurley on all things investing We cover: - AI - regulatory capture - the different types of increasing returns to scale - hardware - capital markets - working with extreme talent Bunch more Enjoy joincolossus.com/episodes/82708…
Needs a lot of work but the project is underway: michaelmauboussin.chat
Needs a lot of work but the project is underway: michaelmauboussin.chat
You can find much of it here: michaelmauboussin.com/writing
You tell a friend you’ll possibly help them move. Do you mean there’s a 70% chance or a 30% chance of that happening? See how your understanding of expressions of probability compares to others with this survey from @mjmauboussin, @pjmauboussin, & @amaub. probabilitysurvey.com
An extraordinary collection of lessons that Danny Kahneman imparted. Worth reading and celebrating an extraordinary life: behavioralscientist.org/remembering-da…
"@mjmauboussin latest podcast is great," I said to the grocery checker." After I said this, a crowd quickly formed around me as if they didn't know previously. "This is fantastic" said the checker who quickly relayed the message on the grocery's PA system. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/val…
I find that it's always worthwhile listening to what @PTetlock has to say. As always, he is measured and thoughtful. In particular, I like the idea of "crux questions" and thinking about AI-human collaboration. ft.com/content/d937aa…
Fans of behavioral science will have fun playing with this GPT extension.
Fans of behavioral science will have fun playing with this GPT extension.
Maximize success by focusing on avoiding failure. Inversion—emphasizing what not to do to avoid pitfalls—can be as crucial as setting goals. Charlie Munger's wisdom reminds us: understand where you don't want to go, and plan backwards from there. #BehavioralScienceChat #GenAI
This is great
My tribute to Danny Kahneman. wsj.com/finance/invest…
12/ Our 4 part podcast wide ranging listen with the greats Danny Kahneman RIP💔,@AnnieDuke , @mjmauboussin Very grateful we got to do this + preserve for posterity... All 4 episodes with transcripts: LINK🔗 luxcapital.com/podcast/risk-b…
12/ Our 4 part podcast wide ranging listen with the greats Danny Kahneman RIP💔,@AnnieDuke , @mjmauboussin Very grateful we got to do this + preserve for posterity... All 4 episodes with transcripts: LINK🔗 luxcapital.com/podcast/risk-b…
A highlight of my professional career was the opportunity to interview Danny Kahneman at an event for @sfiscience. A sad day for the world and an opportunity to celebrate his extraordinary contributions youtube.com/watch?v=QSCbnS…
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1K Followers 40 Following Dedicated to discovery of collective intelligence principles in diverse systems, from nanobot swarms to brains to animal societies to markets to teams to AI.MAUBOUSSIN LATEST PAPER - Summary Thread Most investors rely on EV/EBITDA and P/E to value businesses, this paper focuses on what these multiples miss, why they differ, and their link to fundamentals (cash-flow generated by the underlying business). Section 1: Introduction to…
Section 6: Conclusion As always, a very interesting article by Mauboussin. We all very heavily rely on multiples to price stocks and businesses, and it is always useful to understand them a little bit better. If you made it here, you’ll enjoy reading my newsletter - Pari…
In the @patrick_oshag podcast episode "Putting Theory into Practice," @bgurley and @mjmauboussin, both leading experts in investing and business strategy, delve into various topics related to AI, regulatory capture, increasing returns to scale, and the changing dynamics in…
@egr_investor @patrick_oshag @bgurley @mjmauboussin I think what is important to remember is that 25 years ago the internet is what was going to change the overall economy & it kind of did....but a lot of the stocks that everyone was talking about that was supposed to be the beneficiaries of the Internet didn't pan out. Diversify.
@patrick_oshag @trengriffin @TurnerNovak @generalcatalyst @mjmauboussin Alright I’m down the rabbit hole… Post-adjustment for intangibles: - Sector-wide ROICs converge toward the mean - $MSFT ROIC declines by 30% Interestingly (although not surprising), ROIC dispersion in tech sector (“Software” far exceeds industrials (“Hard Tech”)
@realLigerCub Mauboussin and Gurley was a delight
‘From a practical standpoint, we find that the discounted cash flow analysis done by most analysts and strategic planners has a forecast period, or CAP, that is too short and a terminal value that incorporates too much of the overall value.’ 1/14/97 early- @mjmauboussin…
@bgurley and @mjmauboussin have been friends for a long time. I learned from these two genius minds and I see them as perfect role models in the industry. I really enjoyed listening to this episode. podcasts.apple.com/sa/podcast/inv…
Link to MM’s piece here, good stuff as always: morganstanley.com/im/publication…
Three tables/charts that caught my attention in Michael Mauboussin’s @mjmauboussin latest piece, “Valuation Multiples What They Miss, Why They Differ, and the Link to Fundamentals” 1 | For the same EBITDA, companies with lower DA, higher EBIT should have higher EV/EBITDA…
‘The central point is that how much or how little management invests back into the business is not as important as the concept that all capital tied up in a business pull its economic weight.’ 12/13/95 early- @mjmauboussin @Snapple
How to become a better Investor💝 Investment Conference 2024 | Norges Bank Investment Management. World’s leading experts, including Marc Andreessen, Angela Duckworth, Annie Duke, Howard Marks & Michael Mauboussin featured. 3 Hrs #Investing video. youtube.com/watch?v=6Kas8L…
[3/5] Michael Mauboussin and Bill Gurley - Invest Like the Best: go.g0m.es/2B1Q [4/5] Breakfast with Seneca: A Stoic Guide to the Art of Living - David Fideler: go.g0m.es/ysdI [5/5] Meta and open platforms - Stratechery: go.g0m.es/YLZE
@SkrillaStocks If you use a terminal value and a terminal growth rate, you are already implying you know how it much it will grow *forever.* The approach Mauboussin suggests, and I agree with, its 100% insensitive to rate of growth at the end of the competitive advantage period.
If you are interested in financial markets and humor, and you wish there were more people like @matt_levine, then check out the blog from my good friend and co-author Owen Lamont. acadian-asset.com/investment-ins…
The Pretentious Idiot’s Guide to Pronouncing Meaningless Gibberish acadian-asset.com/investment-ins…
@mjmauboussin , @bgurley and @patrick_oshag podcast was a treat. Priceless stuff.. -> Some notes / takeways - In the discussion on capital allocation of US companies, I found it interesting to note that since 1980, ~85% of companies have relied on internal financing as a source…
the ability of multiples to capture the underlying economics of a business has degraded over time. This is mainly the result of a shift in how companies invest. @mjmauboussin
It is such a gift to be able to listen @bgurley & @mjmauboussin talk. Thanks @patrick_oshag. I loved the way they framed “Value-Based Strategy” and “intangible investment assets”
My conversation with @mjmauboussin and @bgurley on all things investing We cover: - AI - regulatory capture - the different types of increasing returns to scale - hardware - capital markets - working with extreme talent Bunch more Enjoy joincolossus.com/episodes/82708…