Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock
Penn-Integrates-Knowledge (PIK) Professor, Wharton & School of Arts & Sciences. Likes = interesting; Retweets = very interesting; Interesting ≠ endorsement amzn.to/1FWLGAD Philadelphia, PA Joined October 2011-
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A key part of adversarial collaboration debates between AI specialists & superforecaster/generalists was: how long would rapid growth last? Would it ever level off? How much should we update on this?
A key part of adversarial collaboration debates between AI specialists & superforecaster/generalists was: how long would rapid growth last? Would it ever level off? How much should we update on this?
True: superforecasters deserve some credit: they were less volatile & more accurate than interest-rate traders. Tricky question is how much credit? It is a single time-series embedded in a quirky segment of history. As LLMs wade into the forecasting game (including…
True: superforecasters deserve some credit: they were less volatile & more accurate than interest-rate traders. Tricky question is how much credit? It is a single time-series embedded in a quirky segment of history. As LLMs wade into the forecasting game (including…
this reminds me it is time (for someone younger than i am) to launch the next 5-10-25-year nuclear proliferation forecasting tournament dropbox.com/scl/fi/g42dcqx…
this reminds me it is time (for someone younger than i am) to launch the next 5-10-25-year nuclear proliferation forecasting tournament dropbox.com/scl/fi/g42dcqx…
Jerry and Larry had a deep understanding of the illusion of explanatory depth.
Seamless translation of thought experiment into lab experiment that, when run across cultures, reveals how WEIRD we are.
Seamless translation of thought experiment into lab experiment that, when run across cultures, reveals how WEIRD we are.
Biases cut in both directions When data appear in scatterplots, people often underestimate correlations. But then there is illusory correlation when people exaggerate relationships they expect to see. Tricky part is working out boundary conditions
Biases cut in both directions When data appear in scatterplots, people often underestimate correlations. But then there is illusory correlation when people exaggerate relationships they expect to see. Tricky part is working out boundary conditions
I find that it's always worthwhile listening to what @PTetlock has to say. As always, he is measured and thoughtful. In particular, I like the idea of "crux questions" and thinking about AI-human collaboration. ft.com/content/d937aa…
Academic meetings are especially tedious because almost everyone feels duty-bound to say something interesting
Academic meetings are especially tedious because almost everyone feels duty-bound to say something interesting
It makes no logical sense but lots of psycho-logical sense. Our almost unbounded capacity for self-serving spin control: “The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven”
It makes no logical sense but lots of psycho-logical sense. Our almost unbounded capacity for self-serving spin control: “The mind is its own place, and in itself can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven”
Danny was, among so many other things, a superb conversationalist. And it is telling as grief radiates through his vast network that the grievers are so remarkably diverse, from Marxists to Libertarians.
Danny was, among so many other things, a superb conversationalist. And it is telling as grief radiates through his vast network that the grievers are so remarkably diverse, from Marxists to Libertarians.
Much of political psychology slid, long ago, into the quicksand of politicized psychology. But then there are occasional gems of insight.
Much of political psychology slid, long ago, into the quicksand of politicized psychology. But then there are occasional gems of insight.
True, super-smart people sometimes do super-dumb things. Also true, smart critics sometimes become so obsessed with the rampant stupidity that they too start doing ever dumber things. Stupidity is contagious. And it is especially hard for men/women of action to master the art…
True, super-smart people sometimes do super-dumb things. Also true, smart critics sometimes become so obsessed with the rampant stupidity that they too start doing ever dumber things. Stupidity is contagious. And it is especially hard for men/women of action to master the art…
This is second order thinking. The more simple approach is to say “ you have a tear that needs surgery”. The problem is that simple messages are much better received by the public. This problem is based on by “ the fox and the hedgehog” and @PTetlock expands on it beautifully .
This is second order thinking. The more simple approach is to say “ you have a tear that needs surgery”. The problem is that simple messages are much better received by the public. This problem is based on by “ the fox and the hedgehog” and @PTetlock expands on it beautifully .
This thread on reconciling deep tensions inside a school of thought is twitter at its best: a textbook example of “integrative complexity“ in action (thesis-antithesis-possible syntheses). It also reminds me of a quixotic project I ran decades ago: how to separate rationales…
This thread on reconciling deep tensions inside a school of thought is twitter at its best: a textbook example of “integrative complexity“ in action (thesis-antithesis-possible syntheses). It also reminds me of a quixotic project I ran decades ago: how to separate rationales…
The 1985 Psyc Review article was about the perils of dichotomous thinking in psychology, where alternative explanations tend to be fuzzy sets organized around prototypes, not tightly defined sets. Hence the conclusion: you can’t play 20 questions with nature and win.…
The 1985 Psyc Review article was about the perils of dichotomous thinking in psychology, where alternative explanations tend to be fuzzy sets organized around prototypes, not tightly defined sets. Hence the conclusion: you can’t play 20 questions with nature and win.…
@StefanFSchubert Nice example of vague verbiage forecasting goodjudgment.com/vague-verbiage… @PTetlock
Game, Set, Match
Good taste!
This symposium (Futures & Foresight Science, 2024) wrestles with the question: When should we give up on trying to improve forecasting accuracy—& admit we've reached diminishing marginal returns? And when does it make sense to persevere?
This symposium (Futures & Foresight Science, 2024) wrestles with the question: When should we give up on trying to improve forecasting accuracy—& admit we've reached diminishing marginal returns? And when does it make sense to persevere?
Eliezer Yudkowsky ⏹.. @ESYudkowsky
175K Followers 89 Following The original AI alignment person. Missing punctuation at the end of a sentence means it's humor. If you're not sure, it's also very likely humor.Robin Hanson @robinhanson
90K Followers 657 Following Let’s skip witty repartee & discuss fundamental questions. Views are mine, not GMU’s or Virginia’s. Books: https://t.co/hpZgEm5DBI, https://t.co/iFs9C3J2EkAlex Tabarrok 🛡️ @ATabarrok
76K Followers 673 Following Prof of economics at George Mason, co-founder of the online education platform https://t.co/yocRRymFPV. Advisor to firms, incl MultiversX, TEAL, Bluechip, 0L Network +Stefan Schubert @StefanFSchubert
28K Followers 2K Following Philosophy, psychology, and effective altruism.tylercowen @tylercowen
231K Followers 526 Following new book *Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Winners, and Creatives Around the World*, https://t.co/7bU5cUdOBc, Conversations with Tyler, Bloomberg Opinion.Richard Ngo @RichardMCNgo
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34K Followers 643 Following Exploring the inviolate sphere of ideas one interview at a time: https://t.co/2YMw00bkIQSam Bowman @s8mb
49K Followers 2K Following Editor of https://t.co/YPQHCCb6Ke. Just here to have fun. COYS 🇺🇦Spencer Greenberg �.. @SpencrGreenberg
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0 Followers 231 FollowingAncient Tetrahedra @AncntTetrahedra
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61 Followers 178 Following Don't watch the clock do what it does. Keep going #wine #Golf #travelEliezer Yudkowsky ⏹.. @ESYudkowsky
175K Followers 89 Following The original AI alignment person. Missing punctuation at the end of a sentence means it's humor. If you're not sure, it's also very likely humor.Alex Tabarrok 🛡️ @ATabarrok
76K Followers 673 Following Prof of economics at George Mason, co-founder of the online education platform https://t.co/yocRRymFPV. Advisor to firms, incl MultiversX, TEAL, Bluechip, 0L Network +Stefan Schubert @StefanFSchubert
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68K Followers 3 Following GMU econ prof, NYT bestseller, father of 4, author of Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, Case Against Education, and Open Borders.tylercowen @tylercowen
231K Followers 526 Following new book *Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Winners, and Creatives Around the World*, https://t.co/7bU5cUdOBc, Conversations with Tyler, Bloomberg Opinion.Richard Ngo @RichardMCNgo
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10K Followers 367 Following Pro forecaster w/ good track record. Seeking to understand + manage risks from advanced AI systems. - Co-CEO @RethinkPriors - Chief Advisory Executive @iapsAIRobert Wiblin @robertwiblin
34K Followers 643 Following Exploring the inviolate sphere of ideas one interview at a time: https://t.co/2YMw00bkIQSam Bowman @s8mb
49K Followers 2K Following Editor of https://t.co/YPQHCCb6Ke. Just here to have fun. COYS 🇺🇦Spencer Greenberg �.. @SpencrGreenberg
19K Followers 6K Following A mathematician/entrepreneur in social science. Tweets about psychology, society, rationality, tech, science, and philosophy. Founder of https://t.co/2YGraOwo77Rob Bensinger ⏹️ @robbensinger
8K Followers 302 Following Comms @MIRIBerkeley. RT = increased vague psychological association between myself and the tweet.Jason Crawford @jasoncrawford
33K Followers 3K Following Founder, @rootsofprogress. I write about the history of technology and the philosophy of progress. Working to build the progress community and movementJay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel
55K Followers 2K Following Psychology Prof @NYUPsych | author of @PowerOfUsBook & newsletter (https://t.co/bG3QVlNURs) | Director of @vanbavellab | On sabbaticalAlexander Berger @albrgr
11K Followers 2K Following Enjoys a good applied micro paper. CEO of @open_phil. Views my own, tweets self-destruct every once in a while.Michael Story ⚓ @MWStory
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135K Followers 347 Following Decisions, books, investing, mental models, complex adaptive systems, skill, luck. Adjunct Prof @Columbia_Biz and Chairman Emeritus of the Board @sfiscienceRuss Roberts @EconTalker
81K Followers 1K Following President, Shalem College, Jerusalem (https://t.co/UANwVRygS3) Research Fellow @hooverinst https://t.co/AYz1OyVbAw, https://t.co/zxKUYrpCURTom Chivers @TomChivers
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23K Followers 1K Following Academic piracy here. Social science: https://t.co/UVO9nXNgf0 Substack: https://t.co/8nVjj0Qu6N Nothing here represents Rutgers.Anthropic @AnthropicAI
262K Followers 26 Following We're an AI safety and research company that builds reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems. Talk to our AI assistant Claude at https://t.co/aRbQ97uk4d.Aaron Boes @boeslab
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116 Followers 393 FollowingDan Williams @danwilliamsphil
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2K Followers 1K Following Decision Scientist at the London School of Economics and Political Science, studying Large Language Models and Forecasting; PhD from St Andrews '22Mitchell G. Klingenbe.. @MGKlingenberg
2K Followers 707 Following Historian, professor, student of war • @DMH_at_CGSC @USACGSC • Personal account; all views are my ownAndrew Côté @Andercot
64K Followers 1K Following engineering physicist, founder Hyperstition Inc, scout @a16z, runs @TheAISalonSF, deep-tech, physics, energy and sci-fi 🇨🇦Startup Archive @StartupArchive_
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721 Followers 820 Following Hagioptasia is our natural tendency to perceive certain persons, places or things as being preternaturally 'special'Hannah Ritchie @_HannahRitchie
85K Followers 1K Following Deputy Editor @OurWorldinData / Researcher at @UniofOxford / Honorary Fellow at @EdinburghUni @EdCentreCC / Not the End of the World: https://t.co/FoINhggvoRVisegrád 24 @visegrad24
1.0M Followers 1K Following Aggregating and curating news, politics and current affairs. #BTCChristopher F. Rufo �.. @realchrisrufo
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2.2M Followers 6K Following science in context, art history and some puzzles to solveKaty Milkman @katy_milkman
53K Followers 1K Following Prof. @Wharton, behavioral scientist, co-director of @BehaviorChange, #Choiceology podcast host & author of WSJ Bestseller HOW TO CHANGE (https://t.co/IuGdasw1Sm)Jash Dholani @oldbooksguy
77K Followers 5K Following The Old Books Guy | Author of "Hit Reverse: New Ideas From Old Books" | 750+ insights from 75 old books here: https://t.co/u3rAxUcUBkWilliam Harper @wlharper1
885 Followers 991 Following Endocrinology MD & Division Director, Trialist, #MAiD provider @MacDeptMed, @HamHealthSci, @stjoeshamilton. #DEI Apostate, #DAvNE. Treasurer @IntervalHamOnt.Jazi Zilber @yzilber
944 Followers 1K Following Rationality, bridge (game), Ultimate Frisbee, science. Nuance, evidence, agency problemsRob @robsica
4K Followers 5K Following "Knowledge would have little allure if we did not have to overcome so much shame on the way to acquiring it." -NietzscheWesley Yang @wesyang
137K Followers 9K Following Writing on Substack. Author https://t.co/XpCqfzGhUI. Tips accepted here: https://t.co/yOYgoS3FtN…Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1
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683 Followers 757 Following Former 10 Downing Street special advisor. Interested in the intersection of politics/military/finance/intelligence. Applied History enthusiast.Mary Harrington @moveincircles
52K Followers 861 Following Reactionary feminist. Contributing Editor at @unherd. Author of Feminism Against ProgressLee Drutman ⚙️�.. @leedrutman
24K Followers 4K Following Political scientist/ Sr fellow @NewAmerica/ Lecturer @JHUGovStudies/ Podcast - https://t.co/tgWOpC6FeL /Co-founder @fixourhouse/ https://t.co/7zSY2GkIzURussell Blackford @Metamagician
6K Followers 568 Following Legal & political philosophy. Philosophical bioethics. Deputy Editor of The Philosophers' Magazine. See https://t.co/oNK8aCFYWd or https://t.co/MsIGhIuOfI…Jacob Steinhardt @JacobSteinhardt
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151K Followers 155 Following Built ad campaigns for multiple billion-dollar companies. Spending over $50K per month on ads and need help? Let's work together here: https://t.co/1NdyfF4HyVTivadar Danka @TivadarDanka
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13K Followers 544 Following President, Prosocial World. Author of This View of Life (nonfiction) and Atlas Hugged (fiction)Zach Goldberg @ZachG932
24K Followers 923 Following Wokeness Studies scholar researching all things woke @ManhattanInst. All views are my own.Anti-racism training has repeatedly been shown in studies and meta-analyses to be counterproductive. I doubt that they make anyone racist — but they do for sure instill a visceral loathing for the drivel that goes by the name of “anti racism” pushed in the workshops
this is...: "Much of what i learned in “The Toxic Trends of Whiteness” concerned language. We are “white bodies,” Quinn explained, but everyone else is a “body of culture.” This is because white bodies don’t know a lot about themselves, whereas “bodies of culture know their…
Welcome to the “Can’t make this stuff up” show. A barbaric terrorist organization attacks a democratic country, murders over a thousand innocent people, rapes, beheads, and burns countless others. The world takes their side. Can’t make this stuff up. After committing those…
If you still have a college decision to make, would strongly reiterate this advice. The perceived value of an Ivy League degree is going to go down a lot. natesilver.net/p/go-to-a-stat…
"What if fighting for justice could just be a years-long confessional process and didn’t require doing anything tangible at all?" @NellieBowles writes. "What if I could defeat white supremacy from my lovely living room, over tea, with other white people?" theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is incredible. Worth a listen.
Reporter grills Columbia student after she demands the university help feed protestors occupying Hamilton Hall: "It seems like you're saying, 'we want to be revolutionaries, we want to take over this building, now would you please bring us some food'."
"A huge proportion of tech journalism is characterized by scandals, sensationalism, and shoddy research. Can we fix it?" asteriskmag.com/issues/06/debu…
Just found a recommendation that Daniel Kahneman once wrote for me: "Shane knows about decision theory, economics, psychology -- and fish. He has the kind of luck that Napoleon liked his generals to have. His only major flaw is that he speaks too fast." How charmingly... odd.
Does 'diversity' promote corporate profitability? For years, the world's largest & most influential management consultancy produced pseudoscientific reports from an unqualified 'research team' claiming that it does. They convinced many companies that diversity would improve…
Thread 🧵-- my latest for @amconmag: McKinsey & Company—the largest management consultancy in the world, the alumni of which include Pete Buttigieg and the geniuses who advised Purdue Pharma on how to “turbocharge” opioid sales—have published four studies since 2015 (“Diversity…
I can't wait till on-campus orientation starts next semester, and the administrators give their usual warnings about micro-aggressions, making sure everyone feels safe, and getting all the pronouns right. They're gonna do it totally straight like nothing happened, I'd go back to…
On the left: 16-year old Nika Shakarami who took off her hijab and sang in public, neither of which women are allowed to do in Iran. She was arrested, raped, and killed by her captors in 2022. On the right: Columbia U revolutionary, holding a press conference, demanding food
“We’ve got to be excited about the future.” ~ Elon Musk
If I was a student, and there were areas of campus I couldn't go to unless I pledged fealty to a political cause -- seriously, whatever the cause was, even "liking ice cream" -- I'd be absolutely furious, especially if administrators didn't immediately step in and ban the…
Wristbands are being used to identify anti-Israel students at @UCLA so that they are allowed to enter Royce Quad, Royce Hall, and Powell Library. Some students are allowed in and out, others are kept out. This is ILLEGAL and UCLA is not just tolerating it but facilitating it.
‼️BREAKING Jewish students at @Columbia file a class action lawsuit against the university for failing to provide a safe learning environment. This will likely be the first of many to come. #AntizionismIsAntisemitism
So the press conference jihadist is a PhD student named Johannah King-Slutzky (really) and this is what she's working on. Dying. Absolutely dying. Beyond parody. @TheBabylonBee couldn't top this if they tried.
Reporter grills Columbia student after she demands the university help feed protestors occupying Hamilton Hall: "It seems like you're saying, 'we want to be revolutionaries, we want to take over this building, now would you please bring us some food'."
Claude Shannon’s timeline is so good. Went HAM for the first 40 years of his life then crushed some stock investments and kind of chilled for the last 44 years. 1. HAM Phase ▫️Born in 1916 ▫️In 1938, he wrote a Master's Thesis that laid the foundation for digital circuit…
Thread 🧵-- my latest for @amconmag: McKinsey & Company—the largest management consultancy in the world, the alumni of which include Pete Buttigieg and the geniuses who advised Purdue Pharma on how to “turbocharge” opioid sales—have published four studies since 2015 (“Diversity…
Most Black Americans say that even if crime is declining and new police reforms are not enacted, they would still prefer to maintain (or increase) police patrols and spending. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Um … yes, yes, and thrice yes. For their innovations, not for their wickedness.
New Post: Should We Continue to Read and Honor Immoral Historical Philosophers? buff.ly/4a3hkuR