Clueless2world @clueless2world

This is it. Everyone is excited about AI. I'm not. AI is the biggest commoditizer of human capability we have ever built. Doctors earn more than cleaners because expertise takes a decade to acquire and judgment to apply. AI is going to make most of that expertise available to anyone, at marginal cost. The gap doesn't go to zero. But it shrinks. And the same thing happens in almost every knowledge profession. Programmers. Lawyers. Analysts. Traders. Designers. The taxi driver replaced by a robotaxi is the easy case. The harder ones are people who spent twenty years training to do something a model can now do in a second. The one corner of human life I don't see this hitting is sport. Nobody pays to watch a robot beat a human. The whole appeal is humans competing against each other. That's why nobody watches Deep Blue play chess anymore. From an investing perspective, the next decade plays out in three phases. Phase 1 is the buildout. Hundreds of billions in capex on chips, data centers, and energy. This is what's driving today's market. Phase 2 is the deployment. Productivity rises sharply, then deflation sets in as the cost of knowledge work collapses. Jobs disappear faster than the economy can replace them. Phase 3 is the social adjustment. Capital becomes more powerful than labor. The biggest winners are likely to sit where AI cannot reach. Real assets. Energy. Commodities. Precious metals. Scarce land. And there's something deeper than the economics. The Japanese have a word for it: ikigai. The reason you get up in the morning. Your vocation. Your purpose. The work that makes you feel needed. AI is coming for that too. Nobody has yet figured out what a healthy society does when most of its members no longer feel needed by anything. I might be wrong. I hope I am. If I'm not, the world is about to change faster than most people are ready for.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

4 days ago

Wake up. Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.

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This is how we collect data from farms to build our Bharat farm datasets and train our models 🇮🇳 Prekshak captures multiple data points images in different wavelengths, GPS coordinates, and other sensor data across farms. One thing we’ve learned: the same crop can look very different from farm to farm, and so can the weed population. A fun part: we built Prekshak over ~6–7 months, across two hardware iterations. From our in-house Tantra board that controls the sensors and peripherals to building a custom multi-wavelength camera at a fraction of the cost of available alternatives, we’ve been building the entire data acquisition stack ourselves. 🇮🇳

Building hardware in India is one of the most exciting engineering challenges. 40°C+ ambient temperatures. Dust, vibration, unpredictable terrain, and wildly different soil conditions. You have to engineer for all of it while trying to build at 1/10th the cost of competitors. That’s the fun part. More soon 🇮🇳

T-Hub @THubHyd

3 days ago

7 T-Hub associated startups featured in @YourStoryCo Tech30 2026! Celebrating the founders behind Apollyon Dynamics, Sanyark Space, Red Balloon Aerospace, Eon Space Labs, Evoxia, Harvested Robotics and Pramatra Space, recognized among YourStory’s Tech30 2026 cohort. From

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Auto orbital welding is the gold standard for UHP gas lines, with certified welders critical to preventing leaks & contamination. Skilled labour is a key fab bottleneck, but gets far less attention than chip design talent. Tata + ITI Dholera are also addressing this gap. Fab construction needs an army of skilled talent. Need more.

Siddharth Jain @JainSiddharth_

2 days ago

Proud to have inaugurated SemiOrbit, India’s first-of-its-kind semiconductor grade orbital welding skill centre! This is the outcome of a collaboration of 4 great institutions, ITM SLS Baroda + @Swagelok + @inoxairproducts + @INOXCVA By equipping young people with skills

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china ships more shit than it buys. the foreigners pay mostly in dollars. those $$$s land in china's commie banks and the people's central bank or as i call it, their wealth incinerator. beijing has to soak $$$s up in treasuries or the red cabbage rips higher and kills the export machine. fact. that's the structural chinaman bid for dollars. the surplus isn't free money. it's a continuous leak that has to be plugged or the factory stops. goodbye the 5% gdp mirage. japan's banks sat on trillions of sovereign surplus cash for years. zero fucking desire to pour it back into the domestic economy that busted them so completely in the 1980s. sleepy, over-capitalised, terrified, private, emotional teenage banks with a hangover from the last binge. everything china's banks aren't. eventually, japan bankers said fuck it and followed their clients overseas, to the mainland. fucked up again. the eurodollar market facilitated those transfers, moving dollars pledged by jgb cash through the offshore banking system. then came the next problem. their property bets began crumbling, just like the 1980s. suddenly, the guys running the discount window who had created all those fresh printed $$$s had to question the quality of the collateral that'd been pledged. the rest is history. japan's banks had to pony up more dollars to their counterparties just to stay in the game. goodbye 110 solana:5roz8AK6ewzM9te6ZE6XAoeTgTeQHtms7BMFWaEjpump. hello 160. 'tis how a very complicated beast works. china's banks however are poorly capitalised, hiding a mountain of bad debts, and immunised by the commies. they lend without tears because they always bail them. so different. the yen three years ago was still expensive ish before it collapsed. china keeps its currency artificially cheap and the dollars on a short leash. so, no free private carry. the chinaman's plumbing is bolted shut. low yields stay local. the widow maker danced on an open yen. china just locked the cage and threw away the key. 🏴‍☠️

Arya Deniz @Arya__Deniz

7 days ago

China is the new Japan - yields across the world should be ~100 bps lower once treasury traders use China as the new proxy as opposed to Japan for the carry trade

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If your home loan is complete and you don’t want to take another loan again and repeat the Earn-EMI cycle (to purchase the next property), then what should you do next? You now have surplus money left over each month, as there is no home loan to service EMIs. So how best to use that extra/surplus money now? I wrote about this in my latest column in Economic Times Wealth @ET_Wealth - 19Oct2026 edition.

Zerodha has enabled enabled US stocks in beta mode to some users! 5 things you should know. 1) Who is the underlying broker? BSE owned India INX and hence most likely View Trade (at the back end) Groww operates on Alpaca 2) Brokerage rate 0.1% which is similar to Paasa and better than the 0.25% on INDmoney and Vested Similar to Groww at 0.1% 3) Minimum brokerage Just 0.01 USD compared to 1 USD in Groww. 4) Maximum brokerage $10 vs no cap in Groww 5) Remittance? Its website says only 0.5% forex markup compared to 0.8-1% on other platforms. Seems to be the strongest advantage! 6) UCITS available? Not as of now it seems on Zerodha or Groww Thoughts or comments? Let me know

Check out how wall plastering are being done in European countries.

If you have a hectic salaried job or lack passion for stock analysis then you don't need to do direct stocks. But you can still generate wealth. Either buy Nifty 500 or buy 2 flexi cap mutual funds. And keep doing SIP with top-up for 20 years. If you’re aware then may add 1 World Index Fund through UCITS ETF & that’s it. Focus on asset allocation and increasing income.

A renter paying $2,000 a month in year one, with a modest 3 percent annual rent increase, pays about $4,700 a month by year 30. Over the full 30 years, that renter has sent approximately $1,142,000 to a landlord and finishes owning nothing. A homeowner with a fixed $2,000 mortgage payment on the same timeline pays exactly $2,000 a month for 30 years, or $720,000 total, and finishes owning the house free and clear. Same starting payment, same 30 years, a $422,000 gap in what left the account plus a fully paid home sitting on one side of the ledger and nothing on the other. The single most important number in your financial life is not what you pay for shelter this month. It is whether that payment adjusts upward every year while someone else keeps the equity, or stays fixed while the equity accumulates to you. Gilbert Strang recently delivered the final 18.06 Linear Algebra lecture of his 61-year career at MIT, retiring at age 88 to a standing ovation. His entire course sits free on YouTube, including the linear equations that model the exact compounding gap above. The lecture is free. The willingness to lock a payment while someone else's keeps compounding is the entire fortune.

@TraderJonesy Now go check when a rate hike comes during a severely inverted equity risk premium -2.5% or greater like we just had… it marked the top before a major correction within 9 months 100% of the time. Last two occasions: 2000 before dot com peak 1987 before black Monday

Data on average volatility of different hybrid mutual fund categories. Data is of last 3 years annualised.

Some posts make you proud to be Indian. This is one of them. 🇮🇳 Every phase of India's growth has had an engine. Agriculture fed us. Manufacturing built us. IT services put us on the global map. The next engine may be our imagination and creativity. Our stories, going to the world. The world's stories, being made in India. @saurabheloelo it's exactly the kind of infrastructure India's orange economy needs to produce at a scale and quality the world takes seriously. 🇮🇳

Saurabh Pandey @saurabheloelo

4 weeks ago

Big day 🔥 🚀 Introducing Dolphin AI - an agentic AI studio for complete video production. The story of Dolphin is very interesting. It didn’t start as a product. It started as an internal tool. We started with one question: Why does AI video still struggle the moment you ask

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THE WOLF OF WALL STREET SELLING LIVE Jordan Belfort gets 20 minutes with a $27M dairy owner who has never heard of him. The ask doesn't come until minute 10. Before that he just asks questions. The brothers. The father with the minority stake. What keeps him up at night. The owner hands it over: China. 15% domestic share, an organic accreditation no other Australian company holds, and not one facility on the ground. That's the wound. Belfort never sells into it. Instead he shrinks the ask until saying no looks strange. Not the whole account. Not fire your current broker. "I don't need to be the guy that takes you from 0 to 50. I want to be the guy that takes you from 50 to 500 million." Then he does the risk math out loud. One small hedge. 30 days. Worst case you lose 1 basis point and fire him. Best case 25% and $27,000 saved on money already sitting there. "Is that going to put you in the poor house?" The owner says probably not. He just argued himself out of his own objection. The real block comes anyway. Farming runs on trust. The banking relationship is 3 generations deep. Belfort doesn't fight it. He loops back and rebuilds from scratch. Merchant bank since 1886. 3,500 employees he'll comb through by hand. Referrals only, never cold calls. Then the same 6 words, over and over, all 22 minutes. Sound fair enough? Near the end he says the ugly objection before the owner can: "If I asked for all your business right now, you'd say get out of here." 22 minutes of tape. Zero product detail. He never explains a single hedging instrument. He wasn't selling a bank. He was selling 30 days.

AI Avenger @AI__Avenger

2 months ago

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I have been a vehement critic of the cloud kitchen model specially for new entrepreneurs who want to enter FnB business. But here is a list of cases in which cloud kitchen model can help you scale profitably 👇 (Bookmark/RT if you like) 1. Testing the market If you have grand plans but you want to be double sure, it is better to test with cloud kitchen. It costs less than 1/5th of a retail store & once you get to desired sales, you can put up a retail store 2. If you have standardised SOPs & very low staff requirement Usually a normal kitchen requires similar staff as a casual diner but if your SOPs are sorted & 2-4 staff can dish out 100 plus orders per day, you can make money 3. Your food cost is below 25% on gross sales For normal kitchens, food cost goes upto 35-40%, can even go to 45/50 in extreme cases. So if you can control this under 25, you have a fair chance at cloud kitchen 4. You have other revenue sources like catering or bulk orders. This can mitigate the low margins on cloud kitchen & help you maintain profitability 5. You have scale Having a network of kitchens with good branding can lower your money spent on ads & give you bargaining power with online mediators too thereby saving you additional 5-10% on every order. Ex- Rebel Foods, Cult Fit Foods

Is this the end of Tax Alpha Loopholes? Today, Treasury and the IRS just dropped a Notice and Revenue ruling And 26 of the pages were on "tax alpha" products. Here's some of the financial strategies they’ve been looking at → The ETF swap. You contribute your appreciated stock to a new ETF (§351), then the ETF hands your stock back out to a bank through a redemption. You end up diversified, and you never paid tax on the gain. → The "cash" ETF. It pays a T-bill-like return using options (box spreads), but it reports no income to you. → The loss fund (this is the big one) It holds two bets that cancel each other out. The winning bet comes out as capital gain and the losing bet comes out as ordinary loss (currency straddles, swap terminations). The ordinary loss offsets your wages. Why should you care? → Rev. Rul. 2026-20 already says the ETF swap is a taxable sale. It doesn’t care about the form of the transaction, only the substance of it. (Which means, that would probably be a taxable sale) → Treasury says any fix could be retroactive (§7805(b)). (Which means, as of today) → And the IRS says it can challenge these on exam right now, under existing law. Now, the fair part (because this isn't a "the sky is falling" post). Treasury literally says regular tax-loss harvesting is fine. Calling a product "tax-aware" isn't the issue. The problem comes down to the tax result having nothing to do with what actually happened economically. While this ‘loophole’ (and it is a loophole) exists since the mid 80s This was NOT the intent by Congress, nor does Treasury approve today I’ll go deeper on the history of this provision another day, and why it kind of works (Trader funds and exceptions under the passive loss rules) I thought that these products would eventually get nailed, and it seems to be coming faster than I thought. I would imagine these get closed down beginning 2027, but, anyone who is heavily using these Back to syndicated conversation easements we go!

The reality is that CRE stopped being a cash-flow game for most people a long time ago. It’s an exit valuation game. Now you would think that the decrease in rates we’ve consistently seen over the last few decades have been increasing the valuations because of free cash flow. But debt is below the line. Really, cap rate compression (value expansion) has been due to flows. And much of those flows have been from tax-free entities (endowments and pension funds) allocating more and demanding lower yields than non-tax-exempt competition, 1031 exchanges paying a premium to the upper end of their tax on gain obligation (as opposed to rebalancing like a regular market), and initial outsized yields from novel(ish) business models (AirBnB, self storage, etc.). Unless you have underperformed your business plan badly, or bought on speculation with wild assumptions (2023 sunbelt MF), you probably aren’t super concerned on a rate reset (LifeCo extension) or a refi tripping you on a DSCR covenant. Everyone is freaking out, because the redheaded stepchild of the last decade (bonds) is actually competitive again. That’s on top of data centers sucking 99% of the oxygen out of the room. If your business model is to roll from Fund I to Fund III with the same investor pool, as many did in the 2010s and early 20s, that’s gone. If your business model is to syndicate a 17% IRR, 1.8 MOIC on a 3 year hold to a pool of HNW/UHNW individuals without dreading the earnest money deadline, that’s gone. The competition for domestic dollars is high and the gates on REPE and Private Credit mean a good amount of marginal buyer exit liquidity is absent. That’s why people in CRE are freaking out about rates.

Andrew Jeffery @credealjunkie

a month ago

It’s funny to hear real estate people freak out about higher interest rates. The 10yr is 60bps higher than 60 days ago and the SOFR curve is now pricing another 75bps in rates hikes over the next 9 months. Our pricing moved 2%.

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我爷爷给人看了一辈子风水，临走前跟我交了个实底： 1. 不管住哪，要说房子好 2. 和谁在一起，就说谁好 3. 上班的时候，就说这个工作好 4. 遇到晴天，就说阳光很暖 5. 碰到下雨天，就说空气很好 6. 喝水的时候，就说水都是甜的 人本身就是一个能量场，从你嘴里说出什么，就吸引什么，坚持这样做，你会发现自己一切都越来越好。 最后补了一句：“看风水是看地，但人最大的风水，在嘴上。这话，你记死了。”

As a fixed income investor myself …. 3.1 basis points tail is like

John @market_sleuth

a month ago

Today was the 2nd WORST 5yr Treasury Note auction on record. 🔽 High Yield 5.033% (Tailed by 3.1 basis points) 😳 Bid-to-cover 2.21 😱 Sells $70 bln Awards 30.34% of bids at high 😨 Primary Dealers take 15.77% Direct 29.92% Indirect 54.31%

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@GammaVolvdy *224N yes if you have all the time. But 336 is the roadmap and has references for all the prerequisites you might need to know.