conceptskip @concept_skip

German journalist posed as a Putin supporter to expose Kremlin agents Journalist Angelique Geray ran a fake channel for several months under the name “Katya” — a Russia supporter. She posted videos featuring the Russian flag and soon received assignments from people who contacted her. She was asked to photograph sites in Germany, monitor people from the CDU, arms companies and NGOs, as well as collect the personal data of their employees. The recruitment of “one-time agents” often begins with simple tasks for small amounts of money. For example, they may be asked to take a photo, pick up a package or obtain a SIM card. The assignments then become more serious. Communication is mainly conducted through Telegram, and each operative knows only their part of the operation. German politician Jovica Jovitch from the pro-Russian Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance reached out to “Katya’s” channel. He gave advice on developing the channel. For example, the politician suggested making a video of “Katya” dancing on a NATO flag. When asked about links to Russian intelligence services, Jovitch replied that theoretically he knew nothing, but practically he did. He later denied having any ties to Russian intelligence. After Geray revealed her fake identity, unknown individuals threatened to kill her.

Last week I posted a new paper with Patrick Norrick: “Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World.” We chose the title deliberately. No society in history has experienced the fertility levels now seen in South Korea, China, Thailand, Colombia, Chile, and many other countries. Our knowledge of the causes (and of the economic consequences) remains far more limited than most public discussion acknowledges. Much of what we write is, at best, educated conjecture. The paper also struggles against a space limit. We wrote 20,000 words, far from the 250,000 or so we would need to address some issues in more detail (if I had the time and resources to hide away for a year, I could do that, but not now). That means some ideas are only sketched. Nonetheless, we emphasize several important points. First, fertility has fallen very fast everywhere: rich and poor countries, east and west, north and south, conservative and liberal societies, religious and non-religious societies (with the exception of the Jewish population of Israel; fertility has also collapsed among the Muslim population within the pre-1967 borders), you name it. Even in sub-Saharan Africa we see fast and unprecedented drops in fertility (alas, from a high initial level). Second, and this is really interesting, the fertility collapse has been concentrated in poor and lower-middle-income countries much more than in rich countries. By now, income per capita and fertility are positively correlated within OECD countries. We conjecture this will hold globally in a few decades. Third, and related to the second point, the fertility collapse has been concentrated among poor and lower-middle-income women within countries. In countries such as the U.S., the rich and highly educated now have more children than the poor and less educated. Fourth, we document why we do not understand the data from the U.N. World Population Prospects. See, for example, Tables A.1 and A.2. Fifth, we explain why some proposed mechanisms struggle when confronted with the data. A more subtle point is at work here. Many commentators do not seem to understand the difference between proximate causes and ultimate causes. Yes, births might have gone down because fewer women are in long-run relationships. That is the proximate cause. But you need to explain why fewer women are in long-run relationships (the ultimate cause), and saying that they spend more years in school, to take one example, does not get us very far. Why do they spend more years in school? Once you start down the whole chain of reasoning, things become much harder than they seem. The paper can be found here: sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Demog… Comments always welcome!

Wir haben den Selbstversuch gewagt, uns auf TikTok als österreichische Teenager ausgegeben und uns radikalisieren lassen. Der ganze Bericht: dietagespresse.com/selbstversuch-…

THE MDX 100K PARTY IS SO FRICKING CLOSE LEGENDS!!!!!!!!! One lucky person who retweets this post will get a free ticket and all expenses paid 🎉🎉🎉 LFGGGGGG

North Korea becoming a co-combatant in the largest land war in Europe since World War II seems like a front-page news story to me, but maybe I'm wrong...

@ATRightMovies Yes!

Zwei Millionen Menschen hier haben bisher meinen viralen Thread zum Kipppunkt der Atlantikzirkulation gesehen. Wer kein Englisch lesen mag, für den gibt's auf deutsch 4 aktuelle Infos zum Thema. 1. Meinen Blogartikel: scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge/wa… 1/5

🧵THREAD: I've been observing the French press and public opinion for the past days. Explainer on the situation in France:

You can create a custom ChatGPT with your own data. And you can do it without any knowledge of code. Here's how to do it in just 3 steps:

1/ Remember: @Coinbase sued the SEC first. Because of that suit, the 3d Circuit handed the SEC an order TODAY with 7 days to respond. This means the SEC may have to issue crypto rules, and this could happen faster than legislation. Let’s dig in to what happened

Heute vor 5 Jahren wurde der OMV-Gazprom-Vertrag bis 2040 verlängert, obwohl er noch bis 2028 gelaufen wäre. Das Foto 📸 zeigt einen Tiefpunkt der österreichischen #Energiepolitik, die planlos agierte, und zu dem Zeitpunkt von russischen Interessen gekapert war. Ein #Thread.

Eine sehr spannende Frage hat Christoph @Chorherr heute gestellt: „Warum löst ein schlicht praktisches Alltagsgefährt wie ein Lastenrad bei so vielen Konservativen derartige Emotionen aus?“ Der Versuch einer Antwort in einem etwas längeren Thread … (1/20)

I can't believe how many people don't realize the opportunity of AI right now. So many people are worried about AI replacing them. You need to be learning AI right now to get ahead and prepare. Here are my top 10 guides on AI to help you get started:

Everyone talks about China's aging in terms of total population or working-age population, but it's interesting to realize that China's population of fighting-age men has *already* collapsed by a substantial amount.

So, wie angekündigt ein Thread über #Gewalt gegen #Einsatzkräfte von #Feuerwehr, #Rettungsdienst & #Polizei unter dem besonderen Eindruck der #Silversternacht – aus Sicht der #Gewaltforschung. Es wird lang und komplex… 1/68

In den Niederlanden gab es wie bei uns Aktivisten, die aus Protest Straßen sperrten und agressive Autofahrer, die sich im Recht fühlten und jeglichen Anstand vermissen ließen......vor 50 Jahren. x.com/notjustbikes/s…

This!

Urban Cycling Institute 🚲  @fietsprofessor

4 years ago

We don't need newer cars. We really need fewer cars!

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🧵 on the "referenda" in Russian-occupied Ukraine. Understandably, many people call these illegal, rigged, & a "travesty of democracy." But portraying them merely as fake democracy misrepresents and understates what Russia is actually doing. Let me explain. 1/