josh @cripto_josh

4/ This is why I don't care about unlock headlines alone. I care about the path: Locked → Unlocked → Transferred → CEX/MM → Sold Those are five different things. StablecoinX controls ~3.03B ENA. So this is now one of the wallets/flows I'll be watching most closely. If those tokens start moving, we'll know. DON'T FOLLOW THE UNLOCK CALENDAR. Follow the fucking money.

3/ It gets more interesting. For certain sales intended to fund working capital or strategic needs, StablecoinX must give the Ethena Foundation at least 5 business days' notice. The Foundation then gets the opportunity to purchase some or all of those ENA under the proposed terms. Read that again. Unlock ≠ automatic market supply.

Yesterday I broke down the $ENA @ethena @ethenaPay unlock. Now the unlock has happened, and the on-chain flows are starting to get interesting. In the days surrounding Oct 5 we've already seen: → 117.58M ENA withdrawn from Bybit to an Ethena-linked Gnosis Safe → Another ~$68.26M of ENA withdrawn from Bybit + Coinbase by wallets suspected to be Ethena-related → A dormant whale send 30M ENA → BitGo → Binance → The same whale then send another 37.725M ENA → BitGo → Binance That's 67.725M ENA potentially moved toward liquidity from that whale alone. But there's one wallet cluster I'm watching even more closely. Because it controls ~3.03 BILLION ENA. StablecoinX. 🧵

12/ I hope to continue receiving grants from foundations and donations from individuals, as it enables me to take on higher risk for unique cases that others may not consider viable. For this case, I fronted $349.7K and lost 5% on each order, with no guarantee Jimmy wouldn't disappear with the funds, and an unknown amount of personal risk from dealing with the syndicate. Since 2022, I have helped action $75M+ in freezes related to DPRK incidents. My findings were immediately shared with trusted investigators within the private sector and law enforcement assigned to the case. Due to sensitivity around the investigation, I was unable to publish sooner. That is one of the frustrations I have with my work. I am not always able to share findings as quickly as I'd like, and I am currently sitting on significant findings from other cases. If this case resonates with you and you're in a position to support it, feel free to reach out.

BREAKING: Ethena’s USDe is now the third-largest stablecoin by market cap at $4.9 billion

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Now this is interesting. Right before the biggest $ENA unlock, 117.58M ENA moves from Bybit → Ethena-linked custody. That's not proof of a buyback. But it's certainly not the direction you'd expect for immediate sell pressure either. Oct 5 is going to be an interesting on-chain experiment.

Check my last thread about @ethena and tell me what are your thoughts! 💪 @0xc06 @Keeperssd @itsnickford @zaimiri

18/18 That's the $ENA bet: Can Ethena scale USDe fast enough that protocol-generated demand for ENA eventually becomes larger than real insider sell pressure? I'm watching: - USDe supply - Protocol APY - Take rate - Insider Sell-Through - Sell Pressure Coverage Don't follow the narrative Follow the fucking money

1/18 $ENA @ethena is unlocking a fuck ton of tokens TODAY. And somehow, I think its tokenomics are getting better. Sounds contradictory. It isn't. I went through the unlocks, insider wallets, USDe revenue and the new fee switch. Here's what the market might be missing. 🧵

This is exactly why $ENA is getting interesting. Everyone is staring at the size of the Oct 5 unlock. I'm more interested in what happens after it. If the market absorbs it, recurring investor unlocks are basically gone while USDe keeps moving toward the $7.5B fee-switch threshold. One overhang disappears. A potential demand engine gets closer. That's the setup.

One important distinction: As far as I can tell, investor unlocks were accelerated — Core Contributor vesting wasn't. That's actually what makes Oct 5 interesting. Instead of ~78.1M investor ENA hitting the unlock schedule every month until 2028, the remaining investor allocation gets concentrated into one event. Huge supply event tomorrow? Yes. But after that, recurring investor dilution effectively goes to zero. Now the real question isn't how much ENA unlocks. It's how much of it actually gets sold. Unlock → Transfer → CEX/MM → Sell I'll be watching that flow very closely.

The most interesting part here for $ENA holders might actually be the VIP requirement. If 10,000 ENA staked becomes the gateway to higher cashback + higher APY, Ethena Pay could create a second value-accrual loop: More users → more USDe balances/spending → more protocol revenue AND More VIP users → more ENA staked → less liquid ENA That's much more interesting than cashback itself.

This is exactly the curve I'm watching. The real unlock for $ENA isn't just more USDe. It's turning USDe from mercenary yield capital into sticky capital. Savings. Salary. Payments. Card spending. If Ethena Pay can do that: USDe growth → revenue → $7.5B → fee switch → ENA buybacks. Still tiny. But the direction matters.

Agree. And StablecoinX makes the Oct 5 story even more interesting. ~3.03B ENA becomes fully unlocked, but that does not mean 3.03B ENA becomes immediate sell pressure. There are still contractual disposal restrictions around those tokens. That's why I'm tracking: Unlocked → Transferred → CEX/MM → Sold At the same time: USDe → $7.5B → fee switch → ENA buybacks The battle between those two flows is the ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061 thesis for me.

You're mixing up two completely different things on ethereum:0x57e114b691db790c35207b2e685d4a43181e6061. The ~3.03B ENA is StablecoinX's treasury position. Yes, its lock-up restrictions are lifted on Oct 5. But no, that does not mean $1.2B of ENA is being “dumped into the wild.” The SEC filing explicitly says StablecoinX's ENA remains subject to disposal restrictions. Sales/transfers require Ethena Foundation consent, and qualifying sales require at least 5 business days' notice, giving the Foundation the opportunity to buy the tokens itself. The actual investor event is different: ~1.406B ENA from the remaining original investor allocation is being accelerated into Oct 5 instead of continuing to unlock monthly until 2028. That's still a huge unlock and absolutely worth monitoring. But: Unlocked ≠ transferred. Transferred ≠ deposited on CEX. Deposited on CEX ≠ sold. If VCs are hedging the unlock through perps, I would like to see the OI/funding data and wallet evidence. That's what I'm interested in too. But saying “3.03B ENA / $1.2B is being dumped into the wild” isn't what the filings say.