David Binder @davidbinder

pollster, focus group moderator, not much else CA or DE Joined February 2009

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Max Kanin 🇺🇦 @MDKanin

8 months ago

@KTLA I need to explain why this poll is bullshit. California does not have a Democratic gubernatorial primary. We have a primary where all candidates run on the same ballot, every voter gets a single vote, and whichever top two candidates get the most votes, advance regardless of…

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David Binder @davidbinder

3 years ago

About one million additional ballots counted in California since wednesday AM; the new 1mm are about 2 points more Democrat than election night returns; Prop 1 also two points higher in the new million.

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Matt Glassman @MattGlassman312

3 years ago

You can’t win or lose in the count. It’s not a football game with an outcome yet to be determined. It’s the slow unwrapping of a present, the awaiting of knowing the actual and unchangeable state of the world.

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Matt Glassman @MattGlassman312

3 years ago

A reminder that there’s no horserace aspect to counting votes. No one “pulls ahead” in the count or “makes up ground” or “loses their lead” in any real sense. It’s just an artifact of the process, the order in which votes are counted, an order part mandated and part random.

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Addisu Demissie @ASDem

5 years ago

Can’t stress this enough: in heavy vote by mail states (of which there will be more this fall), it is EXTREMELY TYPICAL for results to shift several points in the days/weeks after E Day. We (especially press) HAVE to normalize that therr might be a call in some states for a while

Marshall Cohen @MarshallCohen

5 years ago

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Nat Mund @nmund1

3 years ago

@ASDem Absolutely true. But the results demonstrate that the number of voters that might be open to such an argument is much larger than (at least I) thought. Lots of work remains, but there is reason to be hopeful.

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Greg Sargent @GregTSargent

3 years ago

@drvolts @DanAncona @davidbinder My objective here was not to say, "I'm certain these focus groups are perfect reflections of what people think." It was to use these results to raise Qs about whether a more forward looking approach, one focused on the threat to *future* elections, is needed

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David Binder @davidbinder

4 years ago

This may be the right take, but important to hold off on "polls were wrong" stories until after all the CA ballots are counted.

Philip Bump @pbump

4 years ago

This may be the right take, but important to hold off on "polls were wrong" stories until after all the CA ballots are counted.

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David Binder @davidbinder

4 years ago

CA recall results was about winning independents as well as motivating Dems. Our polling showed vaccinated independents voting 33 yes, 67 no. Unvaccinated independents were 90 yes, 10 no. but the vast majority of independents who voted in CA recall were vaccinated.

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Addisu Demissie @ASDem

4 years ago

ding ding ding one quibble and one caveat: quibble: it’s doesn’t just energize Dem voters, it’s actually the rare message that both motivates and persuades. caveat: november 2022 is very. far. away.

Greg Sargent @GregTSargent

4 years ago

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Addisu Demissie @ASDem

4 years ago

@jonfavs @Nate_Cohn Yup - a lot of factors played into increasing D turnout and I think if there is anything to learn from this election it will come from studying that. But it was definitely the strategy from Day One.

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David Binder @davidbinder

4 years ago

Afghanistan updates: 1st US-facilitated evacuation of Americans since US forces departed - ABC News - abcn.ws/2VUShKQ via @abcyogaforkids

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David Binder @davidbinder

4 years ago

question on errors in 2020 polling: was underrepresentation of those voting straight Republican ticket specific to Trump being on ballot and therefore less of a 2022 issue, or a permanent problem based in lack of trust of pollsters and all institutions? politico.com/news/2021/07/1…

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Brian Hart @BrianTHart

4 years ago

Not necessarily surprising, but still stunning. pewresearch.org/global/2021/06…

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David Binder @davidbinder

5 years ago

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David Binder @davidbinder

5 years ago

Very likely that this will be the high water mark on this metric

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk

5 years ago

Very likely that this will be the high water mark on this metric

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David Binder @davidbinder

5 years ago

Likely to have opposite impact — will stoke Dem base who are aghast that he willfully undermines confidence in the democratic process of free and fair elections

Robert Costa @costareports

5 years ago

Likely to have opposite impact — will stoke Dem base who are aghast that he willfully undermines confidence in the democratic process of free and fair elections