👑Speculare @eDigitalAssets

If you trade trend, you'll get a bunch of false starts If you trade momentum, you'll often buy the top/sell the bottom If you trade mean reversion, you'll periodically get carried out by an outsized move And so on for basically every trading system This is the cost of doing business that's embedded into every market effect you're monetising Your job is to understand it and manage it If you try to avoid it entirely you simply won't get paid There's no perfect system, it's all about managing trade-offs Go take a look at your setups/playbook or wherever your trading system lives and map its assumptions and failure cases The stuff you wanna avoid: 1. Mutating your system because the risk feels uncomfy so you get the worst of both worlds e.g. not holding for long trends/outsized moves but still eating the false starts when you're wrong (all the downside, no balls for the upside) 2. Not knowing what the trade-offs are and sizing like a dickhead so when you're wrong it wipes out all your gains e.g. penny collecting on mean reversion with increasing size and then getting fully wiped on the outsized move

NFA: The daily chart now confirms what the 30-min showed: this is a failed ascending triangle, and Friday made it official. The breakdown candle sliced through the rising trendline right at the apex and closed below both EMAs (~7,560-7,580) — the first daily close below the ribbon since the June pullback. Apex breakdowns are worth noting: patterns that break at the apex rather than mid-pattern tend to produce weaker measured moves, but a failed bullish pattern still carries the trapped-long dynamic that fuels downside follow-through. Volume on the daily: Friday’s red bar is elevated versus the contracting triangle volume — expansion in the direction of the break, which validates it. It’s not climactic like the June selloff bars, so this reads as the start of distribution, not exhaustion. That distinction matters: exhaustion volume marks bottoms; initiating volume marks trend changes. Momentum has rolled at a lower high. MACD histogram flipped red and the lines are crossing down from a level well below the May peak — bearish divergence structure across the whole triangle (price made equal highs at 7,620+ three times while momentum made lower highs each attempt). Stochastics bent down from midrange, not overbought, which leaves room to run lower. The map from here: •7,440-7,460 — the late-June/early-July pivot lows and the zone the flag-pole projection from your 30-min chart pointed at. First real support. •7,300-7,350 — the June swing low cluster. If 7,440 goes, this is the next magnet, and it’s also roughly where a triangle-height measured move lands (7,620 − ~320 of pattern height ≈ low 7,300s depending on where you anchor the base). •Overhead: the broken trendline + EMA ribbon at ~7,550-7,580 is now the resistance shelf. Classic failed-pattern behavior is a pullback to the broken trendline that gets sold — that’s your highest-probability short entry if it comes, and the level a reclaim would have to beat to negate all of this. Probabilities: once an ascending triangle breaks downward, Bulkowski’s stats give it decent follow-through but also a ~50%+ pullback rate — so a bounce back toward 7,550-7,580 early next week would be normal, not bullish, unless it closes back above. Given Friday’s QQQ picture (-$4.2B net gamma, spot pinned under the 700 wall, far below the flip), the cross-market backdrop favors continuation: negative dealer gamma means Monday gaps and moves extend rather than mean-revert. Confluence summary for your framework: daily structure (broken), volume (confirming), momentum (rolling from lower highs), and options positioning (negative gamma regime) are all pointing the same direction for the first time in this sequence. The bull case now requires proof — a daily close back above ~7,580 — while the bear case just requires drift. Respect the asymmetry, and treat any low-volume bounce into the broken trendline as supply until shown otherwise.

NFA: The ascending triangle resolved downward — this is the ~36% outcome, and it matters that it failed. Price broke through the rising trendline and dropped ~115 points from 7,620 to the 7,490s. Failed bullish patterns often produce sharper moves than successful ones because trapped longs add fuel on the way down. Volume tells the story here, and it’s bearish. The declining volume in the triangle gave way to a clear expansion on the selloff — those tall red bars mid-decline are the highest on the visible chart. That’s distribution confirming the breakdown, not a fade-able shakeout. Note the structure too: the descending EMAs (yellow/orange ribbon) capped every bounce attempt on the way down — a textbook trending decline, not a panic flush. Current structure: a weak base, not yet a reversal. •Price is chopping sideways at 7,500-7,520, below the EMA ribbon which is now flattening — first sign sellers are resting •MACD has crossed up from a deep low and stochastics have hooked up hard toward 80 — but on a 30-min chart after a trend day down, this is exactly what a bear-flag bounce looks like •The bounce volume is anemic compared to the decline volume — buyers are not showing conviction Probabilities: consolidations after high-volume trend declines resolve as continuation more often than reversal — call it roughly 55-65% odds this is a bear flag targeting the low 7,400s (flag-pole projection) versus a durable low. The red order block at 7,600-7,620 (242K resistance) is now the ceiling that has to be reclaimed to negate the bearish structure. Levels: •Bearish continuation trigger: 30-min close below ~7,485 (the session low / dotted line) •First real bullish signal: reclaim and hold above the EMA ribbon ~7,520-7,530, then the 47% OB at 7,590-7,600 •The daily chart’s deeper support (that 52% volume shelf at 6,400-6,600) is far away — nearer daily support would be the prior consolidation around 7,400-7,450 Confluence framing: oscillators say bounce, but volume and structure say the bounce is suspect until price proves it above the ribbon. Don’t let the MACD cross alone pull trades long into overhead supply.

Pattern: Ascending triangle on the daily ES chart — flat horizontal resistance around 7,620 (tested 4-5 times) with a rising lower trendline from the June pullback low. Price is coiling right into the apex now, so resolution is close. The declining volume is textbook for this pattern. Volume contracting as the triangle matures reflects both sides pulling orders while price compresses — it’s not bearish by itself. What matters is volume on the breakout: a push through 7,620 on expanding volume confirms; a breakout on continued weak volume is a false-break candidate. MACD showing a fresh bullish cross above zero and stochastics turning up from midrange add mild upside confluence. Probabilities (Bulkowski’s classic stats on ascending triangles): •Upward breakout: ~63-64% of cases •Downward breakout: ~36-37% •Measured move target: triangle height (~7,620 − ~7,150 ≈ 470 pts) added to breakout → roughly 8,090 on an upside break •Caveat: ascending triangles have a relatively high throwback rate (~50%+), so a retest of 7,620 after breaking out is common, not a failure signal What tempers the bullish base rate here: this triangle formed after a near-vertical V-recovery, and consolidations at extended highs with fading volume can also resolve as exhaustion. The invalidation is clean though — a daily close below the rising trendline (roughly 7,450-7,500 and rising) flips the structure, with the volume shelf around 6,400-6,600 (your 52% D OB zone) as the deeper support if it really unwinds. Trade Idea: wait for the break rather than front-running the apex, and demand volume confirmation on the move — that’s the one signal this chart hasn’t given yet.

BREAKING: AI can now automate daily options income with 78% win rate like professional theta traders (for free). Here are 12 insane Claude prompts that generate consistent 0.5-2% daily returns (Save for later)

AI Data Center and Human Body Analogy "An AI data center does not consist only of GPU racks. The real system is a multilayer industrial chain in which the building shell, power continuity, cooling, network backbone, optical connectivity, server integration, memory/storage, test validation, cybersecurity, and grid capacity work together. That is why the AI investment story is not only about chip winners; electrical infrastructure, cooling, fiber, integration, and security providers are also critical organs of the same ecosystem. Now let’s try to examine them: AI Data Center and Human Body Analogy Skeleton and Skin (Physical building and facility infrastructure): $EQIX (The world’s largest colocation data center operator, designs and operates hyperscale AI facilities.) $DLR (A large-scale data center REIT, develops and leases massive physical facilities for AI.) Heart and Veins (Power distribution and electrical infrastructure): $ETN (Leader in UPS, switchgear, and power management systems that provide stable power to data centers.) $HUBB (Produces high-power PDUs, rack-level power distribution, and connector solutions.) Lungs (Cooling and thermal management): $VRT (Leader in liquid cooling, CDU, and thermal management systems, and a Nvidia reference design partner.) $FIX (Carries out the installation of HVAC, mechanical, and cooling systems in data center construction.) Nervous System (Networking, optical connectivity, and communication): $ANET (The new king of high-speed Ethernet switches, a leader in Ultra Ethernet architecture.) $AVGO (Designs networking chipsets, custom ASICs, and Tomahawk/Jericho chips.) $CSCO (Provides infrastructure with enterprise and AI data center networking equipment.) $COHR (Produces optical components, lasers, and silicon photonics solutions.) $LITE (Leader in 800G/1.6T transceivers and co-packaged optics.) $GLW (World leader in optical fiber cables, with billion-dollar agreements with giants like Meta.) $APH (Provides rack-internal connections with high-speed/power connectors and cable systems.) Hippocampus / Memory (Memory and storage): $MU (Leader in HBM3E/HBM4 memory chips, a critical supplier for Blackwell/Rubin.) $WDC (Offers SSD and high-capacity storage solutions.) $STX (Specializes in enterprise HDDs, provides massive capacity for AI training data.) Brain (Compute / AI processors): $NVDA (Absolute leader in AI GPUs, dominates the data center compute market.) $AMD (Provides a strong alternative compute platform with MI-series GPUs and the Instinct platform.) $INTC (Produces custom chip solutions with Gaudi AI accelerators and Xeon CPUs.) Muscles and Joints (Server/rack integration): $SMCI (Assembles and delivers fully integrated liquid-cooled AI server and rack systems.) $DELL (Offers enterprise AI server, storage, and integrated infrastructure solutions.) $HPE (Designs, builds, and manages hybrid cloud and AI rack systems.) Nutrition System (Grid and energy backbone): $PWR (A leading infrastructure company that builds transformers, substations, and power transmission lines for data centers.) $GEV (Provides GW-scale independent power generation with natural gas turbines, stepping in when the grid is not enough.) Check-up System (Chip testing and quality validation): $TER (Leader in semiconductor test equipment that tests AI chips at high speed.) $CAMT (Provides HBM, chiplet, and hybrid bonding inspection systems.) $ONTO (Offers advanced packaging metrology and process control solutions.) Immune System (Cybersecurity and resilience): $CRWD (Leader in threat hunting and endpoint security.)"

Three short videos, less than 25 minutes combined, all now in a single playlist that every new or aspiring trader should watch to kick off their journey. I call it: Risk Management 101 I cover leverage, position sizing, risk/reward and more👇 youtube.com/playlist?list=…

The best video every made on trading. It will change everything you think you know It is that good. Please retweet. I check to see who does

Sam Parikh @smartertrader

8 years ago

OUR NEW VIDEO MUST watch it over and over Get smarter watch this over and over Those that are doing great have watch it all the time IT stunningly good youtube.com/watch?v=k_zC_j…

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Charlie Munger’s 1998 Harvard speech is the ultimate cheat code for life. He compressed 74 years of billionaire wisdom into just 30 minutes. Most people spend 4 years in college and learn less than what’s in this video. Save this video, you will come back to this.

Every millionaire trader on earth knows these 5 trading rules by Mark Douglas. Remember, you are losing money each day because: 1. you think you can predict the market 2. you need to know what happens next 3. you think every win or loss is manipulated 4. you don't trade your edge 5. you don't accept the loss BEFORE the trade

TRADING CONFIDENCE COMES FROM WHO YOU BECOME. Confidence is not a result. It’s a behavior. It’s earned through the things you do every single day. Confidence comes from: • following your rules • controlling your impulses • trusting your process • removing chaos • taking clean entries • avoiding overtrading • keeping your max losses small • holding your winners properly • respecting your stop-loss • waiting for your setup • trading with patience • trading with intention • trading without fear • executing like a machine • resetting after every trade • staying calm in discomfort • choosing discipline over dopamine • choosing process over profit This is how confidence is rebuilt. One disciplined action at a time. One trade at a time. One calm moment at a time.

@EllyDtrades Levels

If you're still marking your levels manually like its the 1800s, I created a FREE indicator that will mark the PMH, PML, PDL, and PDH automatically just like the picture just do the following: 1) Like 2) Retweet 3) Comment "Levels" and I will DM you the link.

@SuperLuckeee SUPER

🎁100K INSTANT LITE GIVEAWAY🎁 We’re launching our new product next week and to thank our community we’re giving one away for free! $100k Instant Lite account 🚀 How to Enter: • Follow @hydrafunding • Retweet this post That’s it! 🎉 GL!💜

$SPY with a really great example of that “EMA fan” today for educational purposes 📝

Casey @Team2Trading

a year ago

$SPY The 13 • 48 • 200 EMA fan 📝 This is my secret weapon for timing trades with strong momentum 🧨 My OG followers already know how well this technique works for avoiding chop and timing momentum 🙌 Study the charts 💚👇

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@BigCheds AA fails so many times. KK better imo. Can’t wait for your next book. I don’t always share your politics, but man, when it comes to charts, risk management, and being an amazing teacher - you got it Cheds. Thanks for all you do.

@mikalche What happened to CRCL?

@SuperLuckeee @itsmichaelluu Thread