edaenphron @edaenphron
Maximize idio RoGMV, the rest is left as an exercise for the reader | Emmy Noether acolyte NYC Joined February 2022-
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Just in case anyone hasn’t done this math before: 10bn 200% gross w 2yr holding period -> 10bn trading volume/yr 10bn 10x podshop w 3month holding period -> 400bn trading volume/yr Price is mediated by volume, if you’re forecasting prices you need to be thinking about pods
Neural nets be like
With zero capital constraints, how many individual analysts are needed to make large cap US equities approximately as efficient as they are today? Less than 20k?
I mean its sort of weird that in the US we effectively can't have meaningful small face prediction markets of any kind. In the context of the rest of the US it's a far right tail example of domestic state capacity if a pretty pointless one
Any intentional production of a set of securities is an exercise in sampling. Relationships between portfolios should be understood at the sampling level, not downstream using metrics like realized correlation
Is a single man on fintwit going to acknowledge that half the population of the US had a fundamental human right stripped from them this morning? Empirically zero evidence men in finance care about danger to women. Congrats Ken - good job on funding this
Why is it that smart people serially misidentify the level at which practical intelligent production occurs? Any skill an individual has is massively outcompeted by teams. At the same time individual skill has inconsequential signal in how additive an individual is to team skill
The lack of discussion from specifically men and specifically men in finance about the casual stripping of human rights from women is disgusting. At the very least every person should read the Alito opinion if they don’t fully grasp how purposefully harmful and evil this is
Whose job is it to backtest fundamental equity modeling methodologies to assess their expected probability of generating forward idio PnL? Where do they sit, who would their results be most useful to and who is actually adjusting their methods based on the results?
Additional opiates of the masses include: - central limit theorem based methodologies - timeseries and implicitly time-indexed datasets
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It’s simple: Pods don’t care about ROIC or multi year investment cycles that lead to higher EPS in 3 years. They care about 2024 EPS & maybe figuring out 2025 guide before they actually guide Marginal price setter = pods Marginal price action drives quant response. Down we go
Thanks! My current plan, following G. H. Hardy's doctrine, is to continue doing proper mathematical work for as long as I'm reasonably young, and then pivot to jabbering about philosophy once I'm too old to do anything useful. (This is mostly, though not entirely, sarcastic.)
i swear if he isn't already, @getjonwithit will become the preeminent mathematical philosopher of our time. the way he knits all these disparate parts of math together with such lucidity is beautiful
Imagine the center books
@bucketshopcap I don’t understand this sentiment at all. There are like 5 sizable pod shops now that will give anyone with a few years of l/s experience real money to kick around. Never been easier to crush it as a mid level IP if you’re any good imo
@philbak1 U can’t use 10x leverage to buy REITs tho
This is a paper I post every six months as it is worth rereading; the 18 reasons complex systems fail. Complex systems fail for complex reasons, and only adaption & learning by organizations, as well as individual "actions on the sharp end" keep us safe. researchgate.net/publication/22…
New paper: arxiv.org/abs/2402.02331 Featuring a tentative(!) astrophysical prediction: rapidly-spinning black holes in discrete spacetimes accrete material slowly and more unstably than in continuous ones. And perhaps we might be able to observe that...
@GrandTokamak Feels like euro banks is all pods
Let me share one more strong belief I have about research: Every time you are discussing that new revolutionary and totally original idea in your lab, at that exact same moment, scattered on the planet, there are 50 meetings where people like you are discussing the same stuff.
why aren’t we “uplifting” other species? this is a classic sci fi plot point that I feel like we just skipped over if we wanted to make animals much smarter, we could, no?
@PythiaR @matt_slotnick These days with durations shorter than fruitfly lifespans, have to assume ppl only pitch for tomorrow's exit liquidity.
@nottigeranalyst you sit down, shut up, and move onto the next one. 0 upside to doing anything else.
I’ve never read an expert call. I saw them for what they were immediately. Seems like they’re rotting the brains of a lot of 20-somethings though. Pretty worried about the future if this kind of thing doesn’t get banned.
This is low-key the worst piece of investment advice I’ve seen on here, perfectly calibrated to incinerate the median analyst who thinks they’re a genius. Every step is a giant red flag with a huge dollop of survivorship bias at the end.
My best investments have usually followed this pattern: 1. You do the work on a stock but it's too expensive so you pass 2. The stock eventually gets cheap so you buy. You've done the work before so you feel confident 3. The stock gets even cheaper. You average down 4. The stock…
The conclusion? Determinism and non-determinism are not properties of *systems* but properties of *models*. So it simply doesn't make sense to ask "Is the universe deterministic?" or "Is quantum mechanics non-deterministic?" or even "Do humans have free will?" (7/8)
Hearing the lower tier/emerging pod shops are hiring some real shit stain PMs. I’m sure this is going to end well.
Indeed, and it's rather beautiful (and leads to some potentially interesting predictions)! First, imagine a multiway system in which a black hole forms on some branches of history but not on others. Because the BH is a relatively "ordered" state... (1/7)
@getjonwithit @richardassar @getjonwithit have you done anything on figuring out what Hawking radiation is in Wolfram Physics yet?
Currently developing a multiway/quantum gravity extension of Gravitas, which reduces to classical along any single path of history. Here's a (spacelike slice of a) black hole spacetime, simulated along 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 branches of history, with branchial edges in pink. (1/2)
The other half is the depth of the alpha pool. Almost surely, E/DCM activity, retail particp., energy opps. etc. of ’20-‘22 won’t carry on at comparable levels. And the alpha trajectory from ‘15-’19 --before the capital influx-- flattened noticeably, even for Tier 1 firms.
Btw the whole pod/SM discussion can pretty much be reduced to "Capital Returns". What do you think will happen as Tier 2/3/4 MMs keep accumulating capital & talent to scale up? From crowding alone, returns will deteriorate; it isn't rocket science. Nothing good lasts forever.
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