I like to make long-term bets about future AI milestones. I've made 5 bets since 2013, and I've won 4 of them so far (the 5th one comes to term in 2026). Last month I won a 4-year bet I made with @alexandr_wang (CEO of Scale) about the deployment pace of self-driving taxis.
In Sept 2018, I bet that 4 years in the future, there'd be no publicly available fully-driverless taxi service in Silicon Valley. My thesis back then was that deployment in SV would start in 2023. I think Covid added ~6mo to that timeline -- today I'd see it in late 2023 or 2024.
Such a service already exists in in East Valley in Phoenix (Waymo One). Then there are two private beta ones where members of the public can apply: Cruise in SF and Waymo in downtown Phoenix and SF. I'm not aware of anything else.