I like to make long-term bets about future AI milestones. I've made 5 bets since 2013, and I've won 4 of them so far (the 5th one comes to term in 2026). Last month I won a 4-year bet I made with @alexandr_wang (CEO of Scale) about the deployment pace of self-driving taxis.
In Sept 2018, I bet that 4 years in the future, there'd be no publicly available fully-driverless taxi service in Silicon Valley. My thesis back then was that deployment in SV would start in 2023. I think Covid added ~6mo to that timeline -- today I'd see it in late 2023 or 2024.
@fchollet @alexandr_wang Were/are any of them in FAVOR of things happening? Sadly, if simply pessimistic (especially if it's just timing) this is not the flex you think it is - but also ready to be impressed if that is not the case.
@fchollet @alexandr_wang “Pessimists are usually right and optimists are usually wrong but all the great changes have been accomplished by optimists.” ― Thomas Friedman
@fchollet @alexandr_wang Would you consider placing your bets on something like @metaculus so they're public?
@fchollet @alexandr_wang Any projection for when Musky's robot will be able to make a cup of tea? 2043 is my starter