A few thoughts after a long night. First, I think there's a strong case that Iran's reprisal was a strategic error. For months Israel was increasingly isolated, America looked feckless and Iran was projecting power through proxies whilst preserving detente with Arab states. 🧵
Then came last night. It was bad for Iranian deterrence. Iran opted for a big attack rather than a symbolic one, but a big attack that was calibrated not to do much damage. That won't deter Israel; on the contrary, it will make Iran look weak and ineffective.
@glcarlstrom I think you’re discounting the significance of Iran displaying its capabilities by successfully targeting the heart of the Negev. Of course a serious offensive would start with the many military facilities along the coasts - maybe in Tel Aviv! - and have very different outcomes.
It’s not a a strategic error if they can do whatever they want and the US sends two signals with one saying “ironclad” support and on the other hand ordering another country that has been directly attacked by a country to essentially do nothing. This displays that Iran can do what they want when they want and they will.