Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom
Middle East correspondent, @TheEconomist. Author, 'How Long Will Israel Survive? The Threat From Within.' greggcarlstrom.com Dubai, United Arab Emirates Joined April 2008-
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"Netanyahu is prepared to consider ideas he dismissed three months ago... he continues to have reservations about a deal but is apparently in a minority in his war cabinet, most of whose members prefer to promote a deal at the expense of invading Rafah." haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
"Attempting to prosecute crimes might encourage the perpetrator to commit further crimes" is certainly a novel legal defense bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
What was true in October is still true today: no matter how much Blinken pleads with them, Arab states won't want to commit troops to a peacekeeping force or foot the bill for rebuilding Gaza without a serious Israeli commitment to Palestinian statehood washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Authorities in Gaza have lost count of their dead: "At the beginning we had systems, we had hospitals. The Civil Defense teams were able to get people who were stuck under the rubble. Then the whole system collapsed." wsj.com/world/middle-e…
The number of hostages was never the main sticking point in reaching a ceasefire deal. The issue was, and is, what happens after that first group of hostages is released, and Sinwar's refusal to accept anything short of withdrawal and permanent ceasefire. nytimes.com/2024/04/29/wor…
Did Blinken talk to any Saudis about this while he was in Riyadh? Because what they've been saying lately is more or less the opposite
"Iran's failure to damage Israeli military sites could persuade Tehran to seek a more powerful deterrent. @RZimmt says challenges in controlling proxies, whose interests don't always line up with Tehran's, also could add pressure to pursue a bomb." wsj.com/world/middle-e…
"The Israeli officials, who are worried about the potential fallout from such a case, said they believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is among those who might be named in a warrant." nytimes.com/2024/04/28/wor…
They're trying different permutations—this time 20 hostages over three weeks of truce—but they'll run into the same issue as before: a deal requires either Israel or Hamas to accept major concessions which they've been unwilling to make for four months. wsj.com/world/middle-e…
How much must Palestinians pay to escape Gaza? At least $5,000 for an adult and $2,500 for a child, paid to a firm with ties to the Egyptian army and intelligence services. Amid fears of a looming Israeli offensive in Rafah, prices show no sign of falling. economist.com/middle-east-an…
"Some US military officials have also privately expressed security concerns about the project, and the military was looking into a mortar attack on Wednesday that caused minimal damage in the area where some pier work is supposed to be done." nytimes.com/2024/04/25/us/…
Satellite images show that Israel's strike in Iran last week destroyed an air-defense radar. Iran then quickly pulled a switcheroo, hauling it away and sticking a similar (but incompatible) radar on the same spot so it could claim the strike was harmless. economist.com/middle-east-an…
We just launched a new Middle East newsletter for subscribers @TheEconomist. You'll get weekly analysis from our correspondents—the first issue has my thoughts on endless, pointless wars—plus a roundup of our MENA coverage and things to read elsewhere. economist.com/newsletters/mi…
Well said by @AlonPinkas: a single battalion can't commit regular abuses unless politicians and generals allow it to. "If the Leahy Law is about human rights violations, then the entire political echelon needs to be held accountable." haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
Karim Emile Bitar @karimbitar
42K Followers 33K Following Professor of International Relations & Former Dean @USJLiban, President of @KullunaIrada, Affiliated to @ENSdeLyon @MiddleEastInst, @InstitutIRIS, @TheGCSP, ENA
Amro Ali @_amroali
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Daniel Seidemann @DanielSeidemann
50K Followers 7K Following All things Jerusalem. Retweet is not necessarily an endorsement (often the opposite). At POST: @DanielSeidemann
Lina Mounzer @warghetti
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Timothy E Kaldas @tekaldas
25K Followers 3K Following Deputy Director: @timepDC Prof/PhD Candidate: @UABBarcelona Political Economist, Risk Advisor, Wine Lover (WSET L3) & Professional Cynic #RefugeesWelcome He/Him
Danny Hajjar داني.. @DanielGHajjar
14K Followers 6K Following Music journalist | Bylines: @Pitchfork, @RollingStone, @nytimes, @SPIN, @washingtonpost, @billboardarabia, @GQMiddleEast | My views only | يلّا ماشي 🇱🇧
Mounir Younés/ من�.. @Mouniryouniss
20K Followers 3K Following كاتب وصحافي اقتصادي 📌 ناقش ما شئت، وقل ما تريد وفق أصول الحوار، خلاف ذلك هناك زر اسمه "بلوك"
Henri J. Chaoul @henrichaoul
15K Followers 2K Following For a civic society based on full separation of State and Church, equal women's rights, free universal access to medical care and obligatory education for all
Mai El-Sadany @maitelsadany
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Ali Al-Salim @alialsalim
25K Followers 481 Following Gulf-based investor, sharing Middle East economic and investment tidbits. Passionate about architecture, lengthy discussions and the great outdoors.
Ronnie Chatah @thebeirutbanyan
12K Followers 661 Following Host of The Beirut Banyan. Founder of #WalkBeirut. Writings & more via website.
ᴅʀ ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟ.. @hahellyer
41K Followers 6K Following 🇬🇧 ✍ ‣ NR scholar @CarnegieEndow ‣ senior fellow @RUSI_org ‣ ex @BrookingsInst @AtlanticCouncil ‣ MENA ◘ Europe ◘ US ‣ security studies ◘ politics ‣7 books
Kristian Ulrichsen @Dr_Ulrichsen
29K Followers 7K Following Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Author, The UAE: Power, Politics & Policymaking and other books on regional politics & security in the Gulf
Halim Shebaya (حلي.. @halimshebaya
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Hafsa Halawa @HafsaHalawa
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Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg
25K Followers 377 Following Author - Asso Prof @KingsCollegeLon @ComdtRCDS - Fellow @KingsMiddleEast - CEO of MENA analytica Interests: MENA, Gulf, Network-centric statecraft
Sarah Copland 🦋 @sas_yvonne
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inotherwords @Inotherwrd
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Dunno @Playerinthgame
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Pat Benedict @PatPat1147320
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My Info @cindyapplegate2
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xrp @xrp54670940
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17K Followers 2K Following Writer. Translator. Beiruter. Senior editor @TheMarkazReview. Read me: NYT/The Baffler/Paris Review/LitHub &more. Write me/Pitch me: [email protected]
Timothy E Kaldas @tekaldas
25K Followers 3K Following Deputy Director: @timepDC Prof/PhD Candidate: @UABBarcelona Political Economist, Risk Advisor, Wine Lover (WSET L3) & Professional Cynic #RefugeesWelcome He/Him
Danny Hajjar داني.. @DanielGHajjar
14K Followers 6K Following Music journalist | Bylines: @Pitchfork, @RollingStone, @nytimes, @SPIN, @washingtonpost, @billboardarabia, @GQMiddleEast | My views only | يلّا ماشي 🇱🇧
Henri J. Chaoul @henrichaoul
15K Followers 2K Following For a civic society based on full separation of State and Church, equal women's rights, free universal access to medical care and obligatory education for all
Mai El-Sadany @maitelsadany
33K Followers 989 Following Human Rights Lawyer | @TimepDC Executive Director | @Stanford & @GeorgetownLaw Alumna
Ali Al-Salim @alialsalim
25K Followers 481 Following Gulf-based investor, sharing Middle East economic and investment tidbits. Passionate about architecture, lengthy discussions and the great outdoors.
Ronnie Chatah @thebeirutbanyan
12K Followers 661 Following Host of The Beirut Banyan. Founder of #WalkBeirut. Writings & more via website.
ᴅʀ ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇʟ.. @hahellyer
41K Followers 6K Following 🇬🇧 ✍ ‣ NR scholar @CarnegieEndow ‣ senior fellow @RUSI_org ‣ ex @BrookingsInst @AtlanticCouncil ‣ MENA ◘ Europe ◘ US ‣ security studies ◘ politics ‣7 books
Kristian Ulrichsen @Dr_Ulrichsen
29K Followers 7K Following Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Author, The UAE: Power, Politics & Policymaking and other books on regional politics & security in the Gulf
Halim Shebaya (حلي.. @halimshebaya
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Mike Azar @AzarsTweets
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Vivian Nereim @viviannereim
39K Followers 1K Following *مراسلة نيويورك تايمز في شبه الجزيرة العربية* Gulf bureau chief for @nytimes. Journalist in the Arabian Peninsula since 2011. Alum @business & @PittsburghPG
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38K Followers 5K Following Former blue check verified. Senior Resident Scholar at @GulfStatesInst, columnist for @TheNationalNews, regular contributor to @TheAtlantic, blah blah blah…
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29K Followers 4K Following Prof of Middle East Politics @NYUAbuDhabi. Tunisia, Turkey, Gulf. PhD @StAntsCollege Oxford. Fulbright, Rhodes, @HarvardWCFIA. 13 yrs writing on Tunisia.
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13K Followers 879 Following Personal Account | Mitvim, The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies | Words in: @Haaretz @Time @WashingtonPost @NYT @LATimes | [email protected]
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39K Followers 635 Following Senior #Palestinian journalist work for the #BBC for the last 20 years, what is written here represents my own views صحفي فلسطيني#
Sheren Falah Saab ش�.. @FalahSaab
12K Followers 375 Following Journalist @haaretz @haaretzcom | I cover cultural affairs in the Arab world |مراسلة الثقافة والفن العَربي في هآرتس |#הארץ21|
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14K Followers 2K Following Energy & Commodities at Bloomberg News. Tweets, retweets aren't endorsements.
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39K Followers 3K Following Leads Bloomberg's economy and government team in the #MiddleEast. Ex energy & commodities and markets. 🇦🇪 via 🇲🇼🇬🇧🇳🇬
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9K Followers 2K Following خليفة بوشهاب PhD @Durham_SGIA. Research Fellow @AGDAUAE covering GCC-EU relations. Father of Rashed and Yas. Views are my own.
Abdel Aziz Hamad ALUW.. @abuhamad1
4K Followers 2K Following Assistant Secretary-General for Political & Negotiation Affairs. Gulf Cooperation Council الأمين العام المساعد للشؤون السياسية والمفاوضات حساب شخصي
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94K Followers 398 Following Senior Business News Presenter on @AlArabiya News Channel. Producer of social media segment 'باختصار'. All statements reflect my personal & individual opinions.
ا لـحـدث @AlHadath
12.3M Followers 51 Following #الحدث .. قناة تفاعلية تركز على الأحداث السياسية في المنطقة العربية
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4K Followers 5K Following How does this aid democracy? How does this protect individual freedoms? Dictatorship is corruption. Democracy First . Pro Nato. Fallible.
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@glcarlstrom @TheEconomist Great! Looking forward to reading it!
Three letters, starts with a U and ends with an E
There is a difference between imposing economic sanctions and withholding US military aid under the Leahy laws. The latter is arguably less consequential because a military can shift funds in to the penalized units from elsewhere. But it is still symbolically important.
Restoring deterrence is like finding dark matter, which is believed to make up most of the universe's mass, but we cannot be certain it actually exists
Analysts close to Israel are saying that Israel managed to restore deterrence. Analysts close to Iran/Axis of Resistance are saying that Israel failed to restore deterrence. That’s a good place to be at and close this chapter.
Very strong levels of This Isn't Happening out of #Iran right now.
IRANIAN PRESIDENT MAKES NO MENTION OF ISFAHAN ATTACK IN NEW SPEECH
@glcarlstrom we need new term for retaliation to the retaliation...
@dassakaye @glcarlstrom Doing some edits this morning and realized I used "the response" interchangeably for both and now I don't know which attack I meant. 🤦♀️
@glcarlstrom Just keep adding "re" at the top with each new round. E.g. "Will Iran rereretaliate, or was Israel's reretaliation limited enough?"
Ali Shihabi said "everyone wants Iran's capabilities diminished because Iran threatens GCC security but don't want to be seen as part of an attack on Iran unless the US comes in full blast with an alliance that makes the US fully involved in their defense" ft.com/content/882ad9…
💥I was on @voxdotcom's @TodayExplained today with @glcarlstrom & @rameswaram open.spotify.com/episode/6NPSwd…
@glcarlstrom This is a misinterpretation of how the IRGC will actually benefit from the war being taken to Iran. It will further militarize the internal sphere at a critical moment in the country’s history (ie, succession).
@glcarlstrom Thank you for this. Why do you think the Iranian attack was calibrated to be less effective? Could it just be that the Iranian military is ineffective? Thanks
Israeli journalist @ronenbergman has a remarkable quote from a source with knowledge of Israeli discussions on Iran: "If the talks were broadcast live on Youtube, you'd have 4 million people clamoring at Ben Gurion airport trying to get out of here." ynet.co.il/news/article/b…
My most unhelpful take is that historically lots of incidents don’t start major wars but also some do, and we’re bad at predicting which is which, so freaking out over something that might will probably look silly but is also totally reasonable
There is no comparison between Iran’s attacks on Saudi & UAE, & on Israel last night. Part of the reason why US, UK, French & Israeli defenses were prepared & effective is because Iran telegraphed its response over 12 days. Not so in case of Abqaiq & UAE.
this was one of my first thoughts as well, comparing to Abqaiq, or Jan 17 in UAE
We are in an inter regnum period in the conflict between Iran and Israel. Old rules that determined contours of the the contestation b/w them were violated by Israel on April 1 when it attacked #Iranian consulate in Damascus & killed Iranian generals.
Thread of Iran FM statement
2/ "We informed the U.S. early in the night that our attacks against the Zionist regime will be limited, contained, & for self-defence & punishing the Zionist regime."
The notion that Iran’s attack was actually a masterful act of 4D chess that forced Israel to reveal capabilities Iran didn’t know it has strikes me as a leap of motivated reasoning/ wishful thinking/ smuggling political hopes in as analysis. But could I be missing anything here?
On Iran’s strike: At Stanford, I attended a masterclass on military strategy led by a person with decades of experience, including serving at the highest levels in the military and government. One lesson he thought that I always remember was this: He asked us: “Say the US…
A good time to post this again.
And of course the long term result of an Israeli preventative strike on Iran’s nuclear program will also be a nuclear armed Iran…
Iran is a nuclear-threshold state without a nuclear deterrent. In the short term, its nuclear facilities are a vulnerable liability rather than an asset. In the longer term, the events of the past six months will shape their thinking on whether and when to achieve breakout.
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