Dalia Dassa Kaye @dassakaye
Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations; former Senior Political Scientist and Director, RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. Joined July 2014-
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I’m at the point where I see ‘there’s no military solution’ and I’m not sure if folks are talking about Gaza or US college campuses.
Bad news just as momentum for a hostage/ceasefire deal seemed to be increasing.
Bad news just as momentum for a hostage/ceasefire deal seemed to be increasing.
Saudis reiterating Arab peace initiative principles here--clear path to Palestinian state for normalization with Israel.
Saudis reiterating Arab peace initiative principles here--clear path to Palestinian state for normalization with Israel.
Suggestions of an anti-Iran alliance emerging in the Middle East are overenthusiastic and fail to grasp the complexity of the region’s challenges, write @dassakaye and @SanamVakil via @ForeignAffairs. foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/an…
"But what exactly is the red line? Is it only high ranking people? Is it only embassies? Or is it every Iranian target in Syria?” Very good questions likely to be tested in weeks ahead. nytimes.com/2024/04/19/wor…
"If one missile lands in the wrong spot, we’re in a different ballgame" @dassakaye on the dynamics of escalation between Iran and Israel globaldispatches.org/p/iran-israel-…
Hamas clearly trying to keep Iran in the fight but thankfully Iran seems to be playing Israel's limited response down (so far at least).
Hamas clearly trying to keep Iran in the fight but thankfully Iran seems to be playing Israel's limited response down (so far at least).
👇key point. this strike is not unprecedented. Israel clearly trying to return to shadow war dynamic which is still dangerous but better than direct Israel-Iran war.
👇key point. this strike is not unprecedented. Israel clearly trying to return to shadow war dynamic which is still dangerous but better than direct Israel-Iran war.
Best case scenario: Israel choosing low end/limited response to Iran's high end attack last weekend + Iran playing it down = offramp from this dangerous round. But did Iran 'change the equation' to deter Israeli strikes on IRGC? On Hezbollah? Unlikely.
So Israel does not seem to shifting course and officially accepting responsibility for attack. This would follow previous precedent. If Iran plays it down this might be the end of this tit-for-tat escalation which is good news.
So Israel does not seem to shifting course and officially accepting responsibility for attack. This would follow previous precedent. If Iran plays it down this might be the end of this tit-for-tat escalation which is good news.
So in summary: - Israel signaling this was a limited attack - Iran claiming it shot down three small drones & no attack on nuclear sites - Airspace back open If it’s what it looks like (big if) then we’re seeing conditions for de-escalation on both sides, not a lurch to war.
Good recap of the unfolding Israel-Iran conflict since Israel's April 1 strike. From the early days of the Gaza war it was clear miscalculations could get us to this point as I laid out in @ForeignAffairs last October: foreignaffairs.com/israel/will-wa…
Good recap of the unfolding Israel-Iran conflict since Israel's April 1 strike. From the early days of the Gaza war it was clear miscalculations could get us to this point as I laid out in @ForeignAffairs last October: foreignaffairs.com/israel/will-wa…
A Hezbollah attack in northern Israel causing serious injuries comes at a particularly dangerous moment. The region is already on edge in anticipation of an Israeli response to Iran's unprecedented direct attack over the weekend.
A Hezbollah attack in northern Israel causing serious injuries comes at a particularly dangerous moment. The region is already on edge in anticipation of an Israeli response to Iran's unprecedented direct attack over the weekend.
A rational response but will Israel's current cabinet/political leaders agree?
A rational response but will Israel's current cabinet/political leaders agree?
Meanwhile...
👇Good points from @becca_wasser on tempering expectations for Arab-Israeli defense cooperation in the aftermath of Iran's attack.
👇Good points from @becca_wasser on tempering expectations for Arab-Israeli defense cooperation in the aftermath of Iran's attack.
Laura Rozen @lrozen
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@SanamVakil and @dassakaye eloquently outline the tight rope the #GulfArab states walk between #Iran and #Israel, they won’t side with one over the other, they will continue to call for de-escalation and stay out of the firing line: foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/an…
The complete disconnect happening right now in terms of rhetoric coming from the Saudi Foreign Ministry and the U.S. State Department on this issue is mind boggling
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Read the insightful piece about the potential formation of an anti-Iran alliance between Israel and the Arab states by @SanamVakil and @dassakaye foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/an…
.@SanamVakil @dassakaye: The Arab world does not want to take clear sides between Iran and Israel 👇🏼
Arab states do not want to join a bloc explicitly working against Iran & its global supporters, such as Russia. They prefer to balance multiple regional & global relationships, not to burn bridges, write @dassakaye & @SanamVakil via @ForeignAffairs. foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/an…
“Should escalation between Iran & Israel continue, Arab states will likely be even more reluctant to support Israel. The domestic costs to them for supporting Israel are likely to rise as time goes on.” @dassakaye & @SanamVakil foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/an…
Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi, who I mentioned in my recent essay, has been sentenced to death by Iran for supporting anti-government protests. I have no words.
Two recent graphic novels –– Marjane Satrapi’s “Woman, Life, Freedom” and Edel Rodriguez’s “Worm: A Cuban American Odyssey” –– reveal the realities of daily life in Iran and Cuba, illustrating the common traits of authoritarian regimes. | @melissakchan newlinesmag.com/review/against…
As #Israel ‘s attacks on #Lebanon intensify today- with 40 #Hezbollah targets hit simultaneously as per the #IDF and statement by Minister of defense #Gallant that the next period will be critical in South Lebanon read my latest in @ForeiAffairs on the prospects of war
Prospects of War with #Lebanon- #Israel ‘s next front. My latest for @ForeignAffairs foreignaffairs.com/israel/israels…
"The transition of the Israeli-Iranian confrontation into a new phase is risky. The dramatic escalation between the two countries highlights the high potential for miscalculation in the lack of direct communication channels". My latest for @AtlanticCouncil atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransour…
Good piece by @AOstovar on why it's wrong to dismiss Iran's retaliatory attack as mere symbolism: "The operation revealed the ascendance of the IRGC's hawks in Tehran and the depth of their desire to take Israel head-on." foreignaffairs.com/israel/iran-an…
Hamidreza is one of the smartest, most thoughtful experts on Iran Follow his work @HamidRezaAz
Tel Aviv correctly interpreted the message when it was attacked by Iranian drones/missiles. Tehran correctly interpreted Tel Aviv's message when it launched a limited attack on Esfahan. Both have stepped back from the brink, for now. War serves the national interests of neither.
The million dollar question at the moment 👇
@John_A_Ridge The real test is: How will #Iran respond next time #Israel goes for a big Iranian target (senior military or technical leader, strategic facility or infrastructure, etc.) inside/outside Iran? And given this risk, will US constrain Israel further for such big ticket attacks? 3/3
Check out this timely analysis of the debates taking place inside Iran on how to respond to Israel and whether there’s scope for diplomacy.
In my latest for @theELN I explore and analyze the narratives among #Iran's officials and expert community on the escalating confrontation with #Israel 👇 europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out…
@dassakaye @glcarlstrom Doing some edits this morning and realized I used "the response" interchangeably for both and now I don't know which attack I meant. 🤦♀️
'A regional intelligence source with knowledge of Iran's potential reaction to Friday's strike, which was carried out by Israel according to a US official, said that direct state-to-state strikes between the two enemies were "over."' edition.cnn.com/middleeast/liv…
This 👇 but we should wait and see.
So Israel does not seem to shifting course and officially accepting responsibility for attack. This would follow previous precedent. If Iran plays it down this might be the end of this tit-for-tat escalation which is good news.
Hopefully, but people in #Iran are expressing concern that this might be only the beginning of a series of actions against #Iran by #Israel
So Israel does not seem to shifting course and officially accepting responsibility for attack. This would follow previous precedent. If Iran plays it down this might be the end of this tit-for-tat escalation which is good news.
Seems this is what happening between Iran and Israel.
Best case scenario: Israel choosing low end/limited response to Iran's high end attack last weekend + Iran playing it down = offramp from this dangerous round. But did Iran 'change the equation' to deter Israeli strikes on IRGC? On Hezbollah? Unlikely.