Go To the Future @gotofuture_ai
Japan's AI supply chain: chips, power, data centers. Charts from primary sources. Not investment advice. Joined September 2026-
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@jukan05 NVIDIA targets a 2.5x substrate capacity increase across IBIDEN, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Unimicron over three years. TLB's module substrates add a separate layer to that AI supply-chain buildout.
@The_AI_Investor A TEL researcher reported 140nm-pitch wafer hybrid bonding with <50nm residual misalignment at IEEE in Jan 2026. A Japanese equipment angle, but HBM production yields remain a separate test.
Source: NVIDIA, Oct 21, 2026. Ono ramp start and capacity target are separate milestones. nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-an…
IBIDEN's Ono Plant targets 3x current capacity, with added capacity starting to ramp in Q1 2028, NVIDIA says. Factory ramp timing sets the pace of Japan's substrate supply response.
@SKundojjala TrendForce says Micron plans 1-delta mass production in 2027, with further 6F2 scaling before 3D DRAM. The equipment question is when that transition reaches volume manufacturing.
@jukan05 Ibiden's Feb. 2026 plan put high-performance IC substrate expansion at about JPY500bn for FY2026-28. If these prepayments are confirmed, they show buyers helping finance the next capacity buildout.
@jukan05 Counterpoint reportedly puts YMTC's DRAM at 9,600 MT/s. The missing pieces are qualification and production yields: a speed target alone says little about how much DRAM Fab 3 can supply.
@jukan05 Kioxia's June investor Q&A put FY2026 capex at JPY450bn, up from JPY280bn in FY2025. For NAND supply, spending is only the first step; equipment installation and production ramps take time.
@zephyr_z9 Micron labels its 3D1/3D2 roadmap "Directional; no dates implied." A 2030 launch is an interpretation; the slide itself leaves the calendar open.
@jukan05 Micron targets 2028 volume production for vHBM 1, with hybrid bonding enabling denser stacks and finer interconnects. That makes bonding part of the roadmap's scaling story; the timing is directional.
@jukan05 Micron's July 2026 plan puts equipment move-in at its new Hiroshima cleanroom in H2 2028. Each AI wave adds memory demand; this expansion still has installation and ramp-up ahead.
@jwt0625 Ajinomoto's May 2026 plan puts its third ABF film site in Kani, Japan: construction in 2028, operation in 2032. The packaging atlas needs the insulation-film layer too.
Source: Ibiden, Feb 3, 2026. FY2026-28 plan; first phase included in total. Investment plans, not shipped capacity. ibiden.co.jp/company/2026/0…
JPY500bn: Ibiden's Feb 2026 substrate expansion plan includes a JPY220bn first phase, with phased production from FY2027. More AI package capacity arrives through factory ramps.
@illyquid KIOXIA’s CM9-DLC cold-plate SSD supports up to 30.72 TB at 1 DWPD; samples are shipping to selected customers. Cooling integration now extends into storage, adding another layer to rack-level validation.
@jukan05 Chosun Biz reports retired US data-center DDR4 modules could enter recycling supply chains. Reuse may extend supply, but the report still describes a shortage of phone LPDDR.
@jukan05 TrendForce's June 2, 2026 forecast puts HBM at ~22% of top-three DRAM wafer input by end-2026, but ~9% of DRAM bit supply. HBM's claim on shared wafer capacity adds context to conventional DRAM pricing.
Source: TrendForce, June 2, 2026. End-2026 estimates: ~22% of top-three DRAM wafer input and ~9% of DRAM bit supply. Different denominators; this is not a yield calculation. trendforce.com/presscenter/ne…
22% of DRAM wafer input, 9% of bit supply: TrendForce's June 2026 HBM forecast for end-2026 shows the capacity squeeze. More HBM means a larger claim on the wafer pool shared with conventional DRAM.
@realACollins SEAJ's July 2026 forecast put Japan-made chip-tool sales at JPY6.55tn for FY2026, up 26%. That is a sales forecast; fab utilization needs its own series.
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