International Equity @intlequity
#RealEstate & #StockMarket #Investing #News • #REIT, #Economic, #Finance, CRE & Residential Market Data & Analysis • U of Penn Alum • Not An Advisor Joined October 2017-
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August new homes sales jumped +20.5% m/m vs. -0.3% est. & -1.8% prior (rev down from -0.6%) … median price up to $413,500; monthly supply fell to 7.4 vs. 9.0 prior
New home sales 800K, Exp. 650K, Last 664K Building permits 1330K, Exp. 1312K, Last 1312K
Housing dynamics are changing: There were 35% more home sellers than buyers in the US in August, the second-largest reading on record after 36% in June. Including 35% recorded in July, this summer was the strongest buyer’s market on records dating back over 10 years,…
Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is poised to fall to its lowest level since the 2009 recession, an early warning sign that the holiday shopping season could be softer than expected #MacroEdge
Equities strong, bonds remain mixed.
The Market Projects a Much Faster Pace of Rate Cuts than the Fed @tyillc @jlounsbury59 @USRoute41 @FM_NoAlgos @mtmalinen @jimiuorio @JonFraserTF @GratkeWealth @dgsommersmkts Is the market right or the Fed? mishtalk.com/economics/the-…
The bottom 50% of America only own 2% of our country’s wealth.
A THIRD OF US STATES MAY ALREADY BE IN A RECESSION,” PER FT
Job openings have relapsed in September after staging a tentative rebound between mid-July and the end of August.
Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales. They've cut prices 22%. And are now below pre-pandemic pricing. The result? Sales orders have spiked. Lennar's margins have compressed to 17.5% as a result of the price cuts. But that's just how it…
Current situation: 1. Stocks are rising like the US economy is soaring 2. Oil prices are falling like we are entering a recession 3. Gold is rising like the Fed is cutting rates into inflation 4. Bitcoin is falling like Fed rate cuts are postponed 5. Home prices are rising…
⚠️US hiring rate is at CRISIS levels: The US hiring rate sits at just 3.3%, one of the lowest readings since the 2020 crisis. Over the last 25 years, each time the hiring rate was this low, the US economy was already in a RECESSION. The US job market is weak.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.35% Same day last year: 6.17% ----------------- 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.14% Spread today: 221 bps
Lennar, America's 2nd largest builder, has cut their average selling price 22% from the pandemic peak. And their most recent quarter's net sales prices is now lower than pre-pandemic. This is where the U.S. Housing Market is heading in 2026.
Average Annual US Inflation Rate over the last... 1 Year: 2.9% 3 Years: 3.1% 5 Years: 4.5% 10 Years: 3.1% Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cuts interest rates 3x this year (Today, October, December) and 3 more times next year. Their 2% inflation target is a complete farce.
Builder sentiment held steady at 32 in September, reflecting ongoing pressure from elevated construction costs, affordability challenges, and economic uncertainty. The slowdown in single-family homebuilding is reflected in the shrinking pipeline: 611,000 single-family homes are…
U.S. housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.307 million, missing consensus expectations of 1.365 million. Building permits—a leading indicator of future groundbreaking—also declined to 1.312 million, below the expected 1.37 million. Single-family starts…
BIG ONE-DAY DROP The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.13% Same day last year: 6.12% 2025 range: 6.13% <---> 7.26% --------- 10 Year Treasury yield today: 4.04% Spread today: 209 bps [That's a 3-year low]
📉🏡Disappointing housing permits show why we need 6% mortgage rates Permits are approaching levels lower than we saw in the COVID-19 recession ➡️Read the full breakdown here: housingwire.com/articles/housi…
Single-family permits are softening Multifamily permits are holding steady—perhaps passing through a trough—following a sharp pullback in 2023-2024
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