Julian Jessop @julianHjessop
Independent economist. Likes charts. IEA Economics Fellow. Speakers for Schools. FRSA. Geller Commission. Own views, etc. I fund myself. See website for more 👇 julianhjessop.com/about/ 'Tufton Street' (apparently!) Joined May 2009-
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More reassurance on UK #inflation... 👍 @the_brc suggests annual shop price inflation eased again in April, to 0.8% from 1.3%, with non-food prices now 0.6% lower than a year ago. #Food inflation still elevated at 3.4%, but down from 3.7% in March. brc.org.uk/news/corporate…
Nothing in today's #euro area #inflation data to prevent the #ECB from cutting rates at the next monetary policy meeting in June... 👇 Headline measure flat at 2.4%, but 'core' and services still easing 👍 ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
💥 latest estimates suggest that the euro area exited #recession in Q1, with #GDP rising 0.3% q/q (revised data show falls of 0.1% in both Q3 and Q4 last year) 👇 Even #Germany positive at +0.2%, though this failed to reverse a 0.5% contraction in Q4. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
'Bonnet de douche!', as Del Boy would say... 😉 French economy grew 0.2% in Q1, boosting chances of a positive number for the euro area as a whole (data out at 10am) reuters.com/markets/europe…
FYI, construction of Sagrada Família began in 1882, and it's still not finished... 🤔 ft.com/content/d68d96…
Image of the day... 🏆
Short 🧵 for 'nowcasting' nerds 🤓 The first estimate of #euro area #GDP in Q1 is out tomorrow (consensus +0.1% q/q). I've been playing around with a rule of thumb suggested by economists at the #ECB, based on the #PMI... ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…
FYI, German #inflation likely to have ticked up to 2.4% in April on the EU harmonised measure (unchanged at 2.2% on the national measure), but both 'core' and services inflation lower than in March, so still looking good for first #ECB rate cut in June. destatis.de/EN/Press/2024/…
A less encouraging signal from the #EU... 🤨 Economic sentiment edged lower in April and remains below its long-run average (tomorrow's #GDP data may show return to growth in Q1, but recovery looks set to remain feeble) More here: economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/downl…
Tom Harwood @tomhfh
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2K Followers 1K Following An independent communications consultancy specialising in integrated campaigning, public affairs and corporate and brand communicationsThe problem for the Bank of England is as below 1) It faced 4% inflation with an interest-rate of 0.1% 2) Now it faces 2% inflation ( as it soon will be) with an interest-rate of 5.25%
Can the Bank of England finally catch up with what is happening in the UK economy? notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2024/04/30/can…
The cost of living would fall even further if external tariffs were cut instead of pocketed by the Treasury & Net Zero madness was curtailed
More reassurance on UK #inflation... 👍 @the_brc suggests annual shop price inflation eased again in April, to 0.8% from 1.3%, with non-food prices now 0.6% lower than a year ago. #Food inflation still elevated at 3.4%, but down from 3.7% in March. brc.org.uk/news/corporate…
Can someone explain why it is legitimate for Ireland to want to stop an influx of asylum seekers from the UK, but cruel and inhumane for the UK to want to stop an influx of asylum seekers from France.
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@julianHjessop Thanks Julian... I always struggle to remember what is in and out and this seems to be a driver of some of the changes
@julianHjessop Is the decline simply savings leaving bank accounts and going into various deposits outside the "money" definition
@billwells_1 @julianHjessop @TeraPauliina There are always issues of nuance and as Julian says not every economic sector is covered. But if you have several prints of sub 45 you are suggesting the sort of GDP Germany had in Q4 of -0.5% not the 0.1% reported by Insee.....
To be clear, Reviewer 2 (me) rejected @anandMenon1's cricket chapter on grounds of insufficient academic merit as well as being likely to incite ethnic tension. However, report does cover Dev Patel's new film (good) and chicken tikka masala (not so good)
@julianHjessop Why doesnt the MPC recognise how much a lag there is between the cause of inflation and its appearance? Its why they were “late” raising interest rates when supply shocks occurred, risking the spike - and now they are “late” easing rates & risk serious contraction
More reassurance on UK #inflation... 👍 @the_brc suggests annual shop price inflation eased again in April, to 0.8% from 1.3%, with non-food prices now 0.6% lower than a year ago. #Food inflation still elevated at 3.4%, but down from 3.7% in March. brc.org.uk/news/corporate…
Good lord, this is tasteless trash
@mrianleslie Giving people power to control themselves is good in and of itself. Find it odd that most arguments in favour of devolution are technocratic. Some places will get better due to devo, some will get worse. Feature not a bug.
TSLA +35% in 4 days…the stock has found its spark, and is really motoring higher…but will the bulls’ batteries run flat, or is there more juice left in the move…
Been playing on my mind all day...I just can't believe the Elliott Wave folk didn't tell us MoF intervention in the JPY was on its way...
I got blocked for this reply. I thought it quite witty after his calling me a ‘retard’ eek . #MMT
This wins twitter today 😂😂
When you intervene in $JPY markets and don’t even have to log into Bloomberg 😂
This is not a bonanza for Ireland. Customs duties etc are obviously bad for the exporting nation (in this case 🇬🇧) but the burden falls on firms and consumers in the importing nation (in this case 🇮🇪).
More Brexit benefits for Ireland! Ireland has landed a €700m (£600m) Brexit bonanza with a steep increase in tax revenues flowing from customs duties now applicable to imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain. “The level of customs duties has effectively…
Great quote from #politicslive, from the US social psychologist Johnathan Haidt, on the battle against the rise in anxiety in kids and the connection with smartphones and social media. "The Europeans tend to regulate with too heavy a hand...the UK is actually leading" #Brexit
From the eternal sea he rises, / Creating armies on either shore, / Turning man against his brother / 'Til man exists no more.